CSI Jeb - post 1

Below are selected errors from my finals match against Jeb at CSI.  I will follow up with more in a second post.

**********
Opening game of match.  Score is 15 away 15 away and I am on roll.  Cube action?

is Jeb Horton score: 0 pip: 139

15 point match

pip: 145 score: 0 is Bill Calton

XGID=-aaB-BDB----bBb--b-d-ABab-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:15:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	67.88% (G:28.60% B:1.36%)	67.80% (G:30.03% B:1.38%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	32.12% (G:8.53% B:0.25%)	32.20% (G:8.84% B:0.27%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.575	+1.188
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.808 (-0.137)
Double/Take:	+0.946
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.054)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I missed a strong cube here.  I think I missed it because I am behind in the race (I have 3 back to Jeb's two back) and I am not really threatening much.  But my position is solid - I have decent structure and have Jeb outboarded.  What I failed to appreciate is just how weak Jeb's game is.  He has the ace point made and a blot/semi-dead checker on his 2 point.  He is stripped on 3 points - the midpoint, 11 point and 8 points.  Also, Jeb is not anchored in my home board. 

Mostly a double based on 'ugly.'  I might get lucky and launch a succesful attack - note again the blot in Jeb's home board which might get picked up in an eschange of hits.  Or, I might just play quietly and Jeb's game continues to crack.  Unless he rolls well he will be leaving more blots and/or further comprimising his position soon.

************
I lead 13 away 15 away and am on roll.  Cube action?

is Jeb Horton score: 0 pip: 118

15 point match

pip: 91 score: 2 is Bill Calton

XGID=aBBBBBBA-------b-bcccBa---:0:0:1:00:2:0:0:15:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	55.43% (G:17.14% B:0.03%)	55.62% (G:16.63% B:0.04%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	44.57% (G:7.21% B:0.25%)	44.38% (G:7.25% B:0.24%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.209	+0.414
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.109	±0.009 (+0.100..+0.118)
Double/Take:	-0.038 (-0.147)	±0.013 (-0.051..-0.025)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.891)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 12.4%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 34 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I doubled and Jeb dropped (by far the biggest error of the match).

My thinking (and maybe Jeb's as well) was that sixes are killed and fives escape so it must be a cube.  To be honest, I probably would have passed also.   It's hard to believe Jeb wins 44% of the time like the computer says.

++++

So I played the position out against the computer 20 times. 
1: Lost.  rolled immediate 5 but still cracked.  XG entered and counterattacked my straggler.
2: Lost.  rolled immediate 5 but still cracked.  XG entered and counterattacked my straggler.
3: Lost.  rolled 33 and cracked first roll
4: Won.  cracked and left shot immediately but XG missed and I rolled 55 to escape and cover.
5: Won 4 points.  escaped immediately and gammoned that ass.
6: Lost. rolled immediate 5 but still cracked.  XG missed first shot but hit a shot as I was bearing off and won anyway.
7: Won.  I rolled 61 to leave instant shot but won anyway.
8: Lost 4 points.  immediate 5 but then 44 to crack.  Lost 4 points on a recube.
9: Won.  Escaped both men easily.
10: Lost. immediate crash 43 followed by 61 from the bar to hit me.
11: Lost.  immediate crash 64 followed by XG hitting me.
12. Lost.  immediate 5 but still crashed later and got hit.
13. Lost 4 points.  escaped one man then cracked.  XG got the recube in as he attacked my lone straggler succesfully.
14.  Won 4 points.  escaped both and rolled home to a gammon.
15.  Won 4 points.  escaped both and rolled home to a gammon.
16.  Won 4 points.  escaped both easily and won a G-ball.
17. Won 4 points.  escpaed one man.  then 66 followed by a clutch 5 to escape and good rolling to not leave a shot during bearoff.
18.  Won.  double 55 first roll
19.  Won 4 points.  immediate 5 then another 5 then gammon.
20.  Lost.  31, 31, 32, 64, redouble / drop.

Overall...  10 wins (including 5 gammons) and 10 losses (including 2 losses on 4 cube)
The first thing I learned was that sixes are not killed!! What a terrible oversite.  In fact sixes are terrible!!
Second.  I can roll an immediate 5 and still crack.
XG can often recube from the bar.  Example - if I leave a shot and have only a four point board.
Often I crack immediately on the first roll - not good.

In short, there is plenty of counterplay left in the position.
*******

I lead 10 away 15 away.  Jeb is on roll.  Cube action?

is Jeb Horton score: 0 pip: 138

15 point match

pip: 139 score: 5 is Bill Calton

XGID=aA--C-C-BB--dBa--a-dbb--B-:0:0:-1:00:5:0:0:15:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	64.80% (G:22.12% B:1.63%)	65.17% (G:22.55% B:1.68%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	35.20% (G:11.65% B:0.35%)	34.83% (G:11.96% B:0.40%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.407	+0.892
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.701 (-0.060)	±0.011 (+0.689..+0.712)
Double/Take:	+0.760	±0.016 (+0.745..+0.776)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.240)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 8 minutes 14 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

Jeb doubled and I dropped.  I was playing too timid trying to protect the lead.
Looking at the positives of the position...

It's only a one shot to hit... I have good offensive structure.  I have an anchor to cut down on the gammon threat somewhat.  Jeb has a nice 3 point board but I am not primed in.  Lot's of ways for me to win, even if I do get hit immediately.

***********

I lead 10 away 14 away, own the cube and have 51 to play. 

is Jeb Horton score: 1 pip: 118

15 point match

pip: 146 score: 5 is Bill Calton

XGID=-B---aD-DA-A---bbc-d-cB-A-:1:1:1:51:5:1:0:15:10

to play 51

1.	Rollout1	11/5*	eq: -0.517
	Player: Opponent: 29.18% (G:6.16% B:0.15%) 70.82% (G:20.35% B:0.80%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.524...-0.509) - [100.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 10 seconds
2.	Rollout1	9/4 6/5*	eq: -0.589 (-0.072)
	Player: Opponent: 29.64% (G:6.16% B:0.22%) 70.36% (G:27.27% B:1.61%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.597...-0.581) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 41 seconds
3.	Rollout1	11/6 9/8	eq: -0.606 (-0.089)
	Player: Opponent: 21.89% (G:2.90% B:0.08%) 78.11% (G:11.33% B:0.38%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.612...-0.600) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 32 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I made the hopeless 'give up' play 11/6, 9/8.  I probably overemphasized my lead and also the made ace-point.  Meaning, even I fall into a backgame - I figured it couldn't be that good with questionable timing and the ace point made.

But playing this soft is just ridiculous.  How the hell do I expect to win after this wimp ass play?  And my lead is not that large either.

I have an anchor, which cuts back on the gammons lost somewhat.  Strategically it also makes sense to attack the lone checker.  I have Jeb outnembered 12 to 1 on my side of the board and eqaul board strength.  I have to attack and hope for the best.  There is no other play really.
*************

Same game.  I trail 10 away 14 away and own the cube.  I just rolled 35 from the bar.  Hit or don't hit?

is Jeb Horton score: 1 pip: 69

15 point match

pip: 127 score: 5 is Bill Calton

XGID=-BB-A-D-C------a-a-cccBbbA:1:1:1:53:5:1:0:15:10

to play 53

1.	XG Roller++	Bar/17*	eq: -0.743
	Player: Opponent: 25.87% (G:3.40% B:0.06%) 74.13% (G:31.93% B:0.65%)
2.	XG Roller++	Bar/22 8/3	eq: -0.980 (-0.237)
	Player: Opponent: 9.72% (G:0.11% B:0.00%) 90.28% (G:18.22% B:0.21%)
3.	2-ply	Bar/22 6/1	eq: -1.040 (-0.297)
	Player: Opponent: 7.15% (G:0.11% B:0.00%) 92.85% (G:18.40% B:0.18%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

At least I got this one right!
Hit risks the gammons but also gives very real chances to win.  According the XG, you trade 13% extra Gammon losses for 16% extra wins.  Since a win is twice as good as a gammon loss (at least for money) this is a great trade.

*********
Next roll (Jeb bounced last turn).  How to play 32?

is Jeb Horton score: 1 pip: 86

15 point match

pip: 119 score: 5 is Bill Calton

XGID=aBB-A-D-C------a-A-cccBbb-:1:1:1:32:5:1:0:15:10

to play 32

1.	XG Roller++	17/15* 4/1	eq: +0.016
	Player: Opponent: 48.27% (G:7.06% B:0.10%) 51.73% (G:12.62% B:0.34%)
2.	XG Roller++	17/14 6/4	eq: -0.070 (-0.086)
	Player: Opponent: 43.88% (G:6.94% B:0.12%) 56.12% (G:11.43% B:0.29%)
3.	4-ply	17/15* 15/12	eq: -0.081 (-0.097)
	Player: Opponent: 46.47% (G:9.63% B:0.13%) 53.53% (G:19.14% B:0.45%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I made the board with 17/14, 6/4.

Far better was 17/15*, 4/1. 

I think the problem with my play is simply that I only have one blot back.  It's just too unlikely that I come around and keep his lone man contained.

It won't be easy to scramble home with only a 3 point board either.  But, Jeb will have two blots back and that is huge and gives me a fighting chance.

Cleveland

I was busy at Cleveland Open last weekend.  Only one match was recorded there, the semifinals versus Dmitriy.  Unfortunately for me I played terible and deserved to lose, which I did.  I may look at some of those blunders later. 

Today I would like to share a few key positions that were recorded and/or from memory.

*************

First, I am on roll leading 5 away 6 away and holding a 2 cube. Cube action?

is Ed score: 3 pip: 29

9 point match

pip: 27 score: 4 is Bill

XGID=---ABBA------------bbaa---:1:1:1:00:4:3:0:9:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	72.31% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)	72.29% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	27.69% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)	27.71% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.446	+1.009
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.702 (-0.111)	±0.000 (+0.702..+0.703)
Redouble/Take:	+0.814	±0.001 (+0.813..+0.814)
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.186)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 14.3 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I redoubled and Ed took.

My thought process.  Use EPC.  I have 27 pips + 6 for wastage or 33 EPC.
33/7 is 4 - 3 is 1.  Therefore Ed's point of last take for money is 34.

I did not make any adjustment for match score - I just assumed his 4 cube takepoint was similar to money.

Ed has 29 pips + 6 for wastage or 35 EPC.  Therefore the position is Redouble / Pass.

So by my calculation at the table the position was Redouble / Pass.  This is obviously wrong.  That said, I am not sure where I ade my mistake(s).   Comments welcome.

*************

Later in the same game.  Ed trails 5 away 6 away and is on roll.  Cube action?

is Ed score: 3 pip: 11

9 point match

pip: 9 score: 4 is Bill

XGID=----AA--------------aa-a--:2:-1:-1:00:4:3:0:9:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	63.29% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)	63.29% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	36.71% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)	36.71% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.266	+0.649
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.389 (-0.260)
Redouble/Take:	+0.649
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.351)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

Ed redoubled to 8 and I took.

My thought process.  I can drop or play for the match.  If I drop my match equity is 2 away 5 away or about 25%.  So I need >25% winning chances to take, else I should drop.

My rough winning chances are (Ed misses) x (I win).  I can also win a few odd times when Ed fails to bear off in two rolls, but let's ignore those.
Ed wins immediately with double 4 ro better, or he fails to win immediately with 33 rolls.

I then win on my turn with 10 numbers (any combo of 654 plus double 3's). 

So out of a crosssection of 1296 games, I win 32 x 10 or 320.  This is about 25% by itself so once you add-on the extra wins I have a take. 

++++

Still, I feel like I must be doing something wrong here.  The computer says my win chances are in fact close to 37%,  much higher than 25%.  What gives? 

Perhaps there are actually many many more variations where Ed fails to bear off in two rolls than I appreciated at the time. 
Well any ace kinda sucks for Ed and 32 and 43 aren't the best either.  So about 15 rolls and Ed is hardly a lock to get off next time.  Let's say he gets off 70% of the time on the second roll after he misses..

So I get 15/36 * 30% or ~12.5% extra wins...
except that ~30% of the time when he misses I win anyway so I really only capture 70% of that 12.5% or just under 9%.

Adding 9% to my baseline of 25% gets me to 34%, fairly close to the 36.7% XG gives me.  Still confused as to the math on this, but at least I am closer.

************

The next position is approximate from memory.  I trail 6 away 8 away and Prince is on roll.  Cube action?

is Prince score: 3 pip: 79

9 point match

pip: 113 score: 1 is Bill

XGID=---aBBCDC--------aabbbbbbA:1:-1:-1:00:1:3:0:9:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	75.27% (G:25.18% B:0.04%)	75.94% (G:23.24% B:0.03%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	24.73% (G:1.58% B:0.03%)	24.06% (G:1.63% B:0.03%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.753	+1.228
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.783
Redouble/Take:	+0.771 (-0.012)
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.217)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 5.1%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

Prince redoubled and I took. 

My thinking at the table.  This is mostly a score based take as for money I think this is a drop.  Prince has overage on his gammons since a gammon win takes him to 11 points.  I don't know my takepoint but assume it is close to money, perhaps a bit lower due to being behind.

The main thing I was looking at was the possibility of recubing to 8.  I can perfetly use all 8 points to win the match right here and now.  So I figured it is a take, as long as I recube aggressively if given the chance.

*************

Memo.  Same position for money.  Prince holds 2 cube and is on roll.  Cube action?

is Prince score: 0 pip: 79

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver

pip: 113 score: 0 is Bill

XGID=---aBBCDC--------aabbbbbbA:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	75.38% (G:25.25% B:0.04%)	75.61% (G:24.92% B:0.04%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	24.62% (G:1.56% B:0.03%)	24.39% (G:1.63% B:0.04%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.744	+1.490
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.943 (-0.057)
Redouble/Take:	+1.325 (+0.325)
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02

Redouble and big pass for money as the above shows.

************
Later in the same game.  I trail 6 away 8 away and am on roll holding a 4 cube.  Cube action?

is Prince score: 3 pip: 69

9 point match

pip: 113 score: 1 is Bill

XGID=---aBBCDC-----------dccbbA:2:1:1:00:1:3:0:9:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	46.07% (G:2.31% B:0.06%)	46.20% (G:2.67% B:0.09%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	53.93% (G:10.57% B:0.03%)	53.80% (G:9.81% B:0.02%)
Cubeless Equities	-0.098	+0.302
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.222 (-0.080)
Redouble/Take:	+0.302
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.698)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I rolled.

I knew in my gut this was a redouble and was in fact part of the reason I took on 4 in the first place.  But when it came to crunch time I wimped out.

This is one of those weird score based cubes where you can redouble as an underdog.

**********

This is the first game of a 9 point match.  (Position approximate from memory)  I hold a 2 cube and am on roll.  Cube action?

is Mary score: 0 pip: 158

9 point match

pip: 82 score: 0 is Bill

XGID=cCBBCC----------bbccbB----:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:9:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	58.07% (G:44.73% B:0.50%)	57.64% (G:44.81% B:0.50%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	41.93% (G:8.38% B:0.32%)	42.36% (G:7.14% B:0.32%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.555	+1.077
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.610	±0.012 (+0.598..+0.622)
Redouble/Take:	+0.593 (-0.017)	±0.016 (+0.577..+0.609)
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.390)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 4.0%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		95.5%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 8 minutes 17 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

My prior roll was a superjoker from hell.  I rolled double 3 which hit two checkers, closed a 5 point board, and advanced my back guy from the 24 point to the 21 point. 

To be honest I had no idea what is going on here so I just doubled.  Mary dropped.  Hard to blame her really - my wins are mostly gammons, vaulting me to 8-0 Crawford.  Pretty scary indeed yet apparently her position is so strong that it isn't even a recube.

**********

Finally I have a 63 to play at DMP.

is Carol score: 0 pip: 128

2 point match

pip: 133 score: 0 is Bill

XGID=aa-C-BCAB----Ab--bBbcbb-A-:1:1:1:63:0:0:0:2:10

to play 63

1.	Rollout1	24/18 13/10	eq: +0.143
	Player: Opponent: 57.15% (G:15.39% B:0.99%) 42.85% (G:17.10% B:1.18%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.137...+0.149) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 minute 24 seconds
2.	Rollout2	13/7 8/5	eq: +0.104 (-0.039)
	Player: Opponent: 55.19% (G:19.31% B:1.28%) 44.81% (G:16.32% B:1.46%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.097...+0.111) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 18 seconds
3.	Rollout3	18/15 13/7	eq: +0.089 (-0.054)
	Player: Opponent: 54.46% (G:16.54% B:1.47%) 45.54% (G:18.52% B:3.06%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.082...+0.096) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 18 seconds
1 611 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 612 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 3 613 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I went for broke with 18/15, 13/7.  I figured I had to make the bar to contain her back checkers and then 18/15 was the most logical 3.  Gammons don't matter so put'em where you want em.  This sort of puts the game on the line.

A better BIG PLAY was simply escaping the back checker with 24/18, 13/10.  This puts tremendous pressure on Carol to roll well from the bar else the game is almost over.  With my play, I still have to clean up some blots and escape my back man.  With the computer's play I simply have to come home safe if missed  - easier.