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April 27, 2012

Other 5 away Scores [2a 5a, 3a 5a, 4a 5a]

The notes from these scores a bit shorter.  There is no material from Stick and the stuff from Mochy and Kit is brief.

2 AWAY 5 AWAY

Mochy

Leader:

Goal - Win 2 Points
Race - double a bit earlier than money
Blitz - never double (try to win undoubled gammon for the match)

Trailer:

Goal - Win 4 points
Race - double a bit later than money
Blitz - double VERY early

Woolsey

1.      Gammon values are elevated for the trailer, but not 100% as in 2 away 4 away.  Reason: gammon gets trailer to Crawford but does not win match outright. [note GV is .69]

2.       Leader never doubles with gammons

3.       Leader doubles race similar to money; and trailer takes race similar to money

4.       Note takepoint for trailer is higher on a last-roll position b/c the cube is dead for him.

3 AWAY 5 AWAY

Mochy

Leader:

Goal - Win 2 Points
Race - double similar to money
Blitz - double VERY late

Trailer:

Goal - Win 4 points
Race - double similar to money
Blitz - double MUCH earlier than money

** 4 points is overkill for the leader but very efficient for the trailer.  The leader must try to avoid a 4 point swing game.


Woolsey

1.       The leader should be very cautious about actions which potentially involve doubled gammons or the cube reaching four.

2.       Basically, the leader should only double if 1-way gammons
4 AWAY 5 AWAY

Mochy

Leader:

Goal - Win 4 Points
Race - double earlier than money
Blitz - double MUCH earlier than money

Trailer:

Goal - Win 4 points
Race - double similar to money
Blitz - double MUCH earlier than money

Woolsey

General principle from Woolsey.

Initial cube action is pretty much like money play unless one player is close to going out, but when it comes to higher cubes the trailer should be more aggressive and the leader more conservative.

April 25, 2012

5 away 5 away

Mochy video
Goal: Win 4 points

When to double
RACE: a little bit later than money
BLITZ: earlier than money.  blitz cube is very powerful

When to take
RACE: low takepoint because redoubling to 4 is strong
BLITZ: be careful taking gammonish cubes because of the elevated gammon value

Woolsey

Not much from Kit (at least in my notes).

My takeway was that initial cube actions are normal.

Stick


General Notes

1.      Similar to money play with some differences

2.      Checker play and contact cubes are same for money.

3.      Gammon value of .65 is elevated but not extremely high.  Impact is to turn borderline No Doubles into proper Doubles and borderline Takes into proper Drops.

a.       Example: 63S-11N-F-C?

                                                              i.      $: Borderline No double (by .02)

                                                            ii.      5a 5a: borderline Double /take (by .02)

b.      Example: 63S-33A-F-C?

                                                              i.      $: Double / Take (.94)

                                                            ii.      5a 5a: Double / Drop (.03)

4.      Opponent’s takepoint on recube is slightly elevated at 28%

5.      Raw takepoint is 24%

a.      [NOTE – I show 18% on my match equity chart]

b.      Perhaps Stick is not considering recube potential? – would explain why he has 24%?

6.      You can take a race deeper than for money because of the recube vig.  According to Stick you can take a race 1-2 pips deeper than for money.

April 24, 2012

4 Away 4 Away

Continiung to look at all scores in 5 point match. 

One thing I don't understand is how Stick gets takepoint of 22.5%  I show takepoint as 19%.  Perhaps one of my knowledgeable readers can explain it to me.

**********

Mochy video

Goal: Win 4 points

When to double
RACE: similar to money
BLITZ: double very early because gammon value is almost 1

When to take
RACE: low takepoint because redoubling to 4 is strong
BLITZ: drop gammonish cubes.  border line decision in money game will be monster pass at 4 away 4 away


Kit Woolsey article


1.       Take low-gammon games deeper than for money b/c of the powerful recube.  Note the recube takepoint is 33%

2.       Drop gammonish games b/c the 50% equity of 3away 4away isn’t that bad, and the gammon value is too high.

3.       Never double a backgame!

Stick Gammon village article.


4 AWAY 4 AWAY

Initial Cubes

1.      Dead cube takepoint is very high, ~ 29%. 

a.      Note ‘dead’ means  no recube, like a last roll position

2.      Live cube takepoint is 22.5% per Stick

a.      [NOTE – I have 19% on my match equity chart.  Why the difference?

b.      Live cube doesn’t factor in gammons]

3.      Gammon value is almost 1.0

4.      Basic strategy is to double early, especially in gammonish positions;  you would love to win 4 points to win the match.

5.      Note this is similar to 2 away 4 away where the trailer doubles very early on gammon threat and leader drops quickly.

6.      Rule of thumb for early doubling:

a.       60% Wins + 20% Gammons and < 10% Opponent gammons = Borderline No double / Take

b.      65% Wins + 25% Gammons and < 10% opponent gammons = Borderline double / Drop

7.      Stick claims race takepoint for long race is similar to money (~22%) because of the enormous recube vig.  Recall opponent’s 33% recube takepoint is very high.

Early Cube Examples

1.      51S-55A-F-C? 

a.       $:  No Double / Take by .06

b.      At 4a 4a: Double / Take  (.65 ND .85 DT)

c.       Takeaway – blot on 2 point is Double / Take

2.      32S-55A-F-C?

a.       $: Borderline Double / take

b.      4a 4a: Borderline Drop



Recubes

Takepoint on a recube is 33% - so recube vig is significant.  Fast recube, fast pass!!

Examples

1.      8 roll position is redouble / borderline pass

2.      7 roll position is redouble / drop

3.      Most standard holding games are drops on the recube

4.      Most Prime vs Primes are drops on the recube (33% is a lot when cube ownership and gammons are worthless)

5.      Recube that containment game early!!  Example had only 4 point block and minus 40 pips but the threat to point on blot and /or just hit loose followed by miss is too volatile.  Redouble / Take.




April 21, 2012

GammonsDad - 2nd Match

Below are selected positions from my second online match against GammonsDad.

Score is 5 away 5 away and I am on roll.  Cube action?
is GammonsDad

score: 2
pip: 160
7 point match
pip: 151
score: 2

is Chutzpah
XGID=-abB-BC-B---aD--acbe----AA:0:0:1:00:2:2:0:7:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 66.41% (G:26.18% B:2.07%) 66.53% (G:26.45% B:2.09%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 33.59% (G:7.93% B:0.38%) 33.47% (G:7.83% B:0.37%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.516 +1.135
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.766 (-0.083)
xg Double/Take:+0.849
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.151)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I missed a strong double here.  I have him outboarded ,am up in the race, and am shooting at a blot with most aces and nines.  In short, an advantage in all phases of the game plus some threats must be a cube.  Especially when you consider that even if things go bad it will be a long time before I get recubed.

***************
Same position.  How do you play 11?
is GammonsDad

score: 2
pip: 160
7 point match
pip: 151
score: 2

is Chutzpah
XGID=-abB-BC-B---aD--acbe----AA:0:0:1:11:2:2:0:7:10
to play 11

1.XG Roller++Bar/22 13/12* eq: +0.969
Player:
Opponent:
70.08% (G:31.83% B:3.06%)
29.92% (G:5.90% B:0.28%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/23 13/12*(2) eq: +0.960 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
70.22% (G:31.82% B:2.85%)
29.78% (G:6.03% B:0.29%)
3.XG Roller++Bar/23 13/12* 12/11eq: +0.949 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
69.49% (G:31.65% B:2.80%)
30.51% (G:6.31% B:0.31%)
4.XG Roller++Bar/23 13/12* 6/5eq: +0.942 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
69.38% (G:31.25% B:2.75%)
30.62% (G:6.51% B:0.32%)
5.XG Roller++Bar/24 13/12*(2) 12/11eq: +0.934 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:
69.05% (G:32.27% B:2.96%)
30.95% (G:6.82% B:0.39%)
6.XG Roller++Bar/24 13/12*(2) 6/5eq: +0.931 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:
68.60% (G:30.97% B:2.78%)
31.40% (G:6.88% B:0.35%)
7.XG Roller++Bar/23 24/23 13/12* eq: +0.921 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent:
68.41% (G:30.35% B:2.56%)
31.59% (G:6.96% B:0.33%)
8.XG Roller++Bar/24 13/12*(3) eq: +0.904 (-0.064)
Player:
Opponent:
67.91% (G:30.18% B:2.81%)
32.09% (G:7.14% B:0.36%)
9.XG Roller++Bar/24 13/12* 12/11 6/5eq: +0.904 (-0.065)
Player:
Opponent:
67.37% (G:30.56% B:2.72%)
32.63% (G:7.34% B:0.39%)
10.XG Roller+Bar/24 13/12* 8/7(2)eq: +0.896 (-0.073)
Player:
Opponent:
68.45% (G:30.87% B:2.72%)
31.55% (G:6.89% B:0.34%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

Basically anything but my play is OK.  I came in, hit, and shifted from the 8 point to the 7 point.  Bar/24, 13/12*, 8/7.

Sometimes it is nice when every play is better than the one you made since it is easy to figure out your mistake!  I was thinking that shifting to the bar point gave me a more compact prime but this was obviously faulty.

The 8 point is a grat point - six away from his anchor and keeping him hemmed in.  Moreover, I have total domination of the outfield and a good chance of making the bar naturally anyway.
*****

I trail 3 away 4 away and my opponent is on roll?  Cube action?
is GammonsDad

score: 4
pip: 132
7 point match
pip: 168
score: 3

is Chutzpah
XGID=----B-C-C--AdCaaac-cAb--B-:0:0:-1:00:3:4:0:7:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 74.78% (G:22.98% B:1.75%) 74.31% (G:24.33% B:2.06%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 25.22% (G:3.39% B:0.12%) 25.69% (G:3.32% B:0.10%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.889 +1.844
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.975 (-0.025)
     Double/Take:+1.258 (+0.258)
xg Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I took a bad one here.  More than half the rolls make the 5 point on my head.  Even if he misses I am down ~40 pips with maybe an advanced anchor (if I roll it).  Drop it like it's hot!!

************
OK so I took and I have rolled well.  How to play 54 from the air?
is GammonsDad

score: 4
pip: 108
7 point match
pip: 173
score: 3

is Chutzpah
XGID=----B-C-C--AbC--acbcac--BA:1:1:1:54:3:4:0:7:10
to play 54

1.XG Roller++Bar/20* 20/16* eq: +0.510
Player:
Opponent:
49.37% (G:14.32% B:0.63%)
50.63% (G:18.41% B:1.53%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/20* 24/20eq: +0.321 (-0.189)
Player:
Opponent:
44.25% (G:9.68% B:0.31%)
55.75% (G:16.56% B:0.73%)
3.1-plyBar/20* 13/9eq: +0.047 (-0.462)
Player:
Opponent:
38.96% (G:9.17% B:0.38%)
61.04% (G:24.12% B:2.88%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

Errors come in clumps.  I made the anchor Bar/20*, 24/20 when hitting two was correct by a landslide Bar/20*/16*

Not sure what I was thinking at the time.  Looking at it now it seems rather obvious.
*********

Later in the same game.  I have recubed to 4 earlier and now have 61 to play.
is GammonsDad

score: 4
pip: 115
7 point match
pip: 149
score: 3

is Chutzpah
XGID=---aBBCaBB----A--bdbBda--A:2:-1:1:61:3:4:0:7:10
to play 61

1.XG Roller++Bar/24 9/3* eq: +0.159
Player:
Opponent:
57.94% (G:21.93% B:1.18%)
42.06% (G:16.48% B:1.01%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/24 14/8eq: +0.097 (-0.061)
Player:
Opponent:
54.87% (G:15.88% B:0.73%)
45.13% (G:11.23% B:0.33%)
3.3-plyBar/24 20/14eq: +0.067 (-0.092)
Player:
Opponent:
53.35% (G:15.84% B:0.99%)
46.65% (G:17.18% B:0.63%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I played Bar/24, 14/8.  The idea was to hold my main asset - the prime - while putting pressure on Gammonsdad to roll well.  I probably overemphasized the fact that most of his 4's which anchor on the outside still leave a blot on the inside.

Better was Bar/24, 9/3*.  This also challenges GammonsDad to roll well but I make the first strike.  In addition, I have the better board, an anchor, am down in the race, and opponenet has a home board blot - all classic Magriel indicators that a bold play is called for.










April 18, 2012

GammonsDad - 1st match

What follows are selected errors from my first online match against GammonsDad.  This is from the USBGF internet team tournament.
First game of 7 point match.  I have already sent the cube and have 22 to play.

is GammonsDad

score: 0
pip: 113
7 point match
pip: 100
score: 0

is Chutzpah
XGID=-B-aB-CBD---bB--a-bcbbb---:1:-1:1:22:0:0:0:7:10
to play 22

1.XG Roller++13/9(2)eq: +0.577
Player:
Opponent:
79.92% (G:4.48% B:0.03%)
20.08% (G:0.88% B:0.01%)
2.XG Roller++13/11(2) 7/5(2)eq: +0.562 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
79.52% (G:3.57% B:0.02%)
20.48% (G:0.41% B:0.01%)
3.XG Roller++7/3*(2) eq: +0.548 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:
76.54% (G:10.71% B:0.04%)
23.46% (G:2.47% B:0.06%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

This is one of those 'play safe' and just win or 'play greedy' and go for the gammon questions.  Othet than feel, I am not really sure how to decide on something like this.

I switched 7/3*(2) going for the G's.  Turns out this is a small error and that the wimpy 13/9(2) or 13/11(2), 7/5(2) are both better.
Compared to 13/9(2), my play gains 6% gammons at expense of 3.5% wins, slightly less than the 2 for 1 money ratio.  Gammon price is .54 at this score so I would need a hair more than 2 to 1 to make the gammon play right.

++++ Variant.   Keeping pipcount the same, but giving me a 5 point board makes switching clearly correct, and not switching a massive blunder.

**************

I trail 7 away 5 away and am on roll.  Cube action?
is GammonsDad

score: 2
pip: 142
7 point match
pip: 119
score: 0

is Chutzpah
XGID=-a-C-aD-D---bBB--bcea-----:0:0:1:00:0:2:0:7:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 67.14% (G:20.64% B:0.62%) 67.24% (G:22.02% B:0.67%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 32.86% (G:6.54% B:0.24%) 32.76% (G:6.69% B:0.26%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.491 +1.066
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.759 (-0.173)
xg Double/Take:+0.933
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.067)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I missed a strong double here. 

++ The same position for money is .79 Double / Take (.70 No Double / Take), so the score only partially explains the cube.

I have him outboarded, am up in the race and am sort of shooting at two loose blots.  My structure is awkward, but 11 guys in the zone can turn into a potent attacking force quickly.

Looked at in this light, the double seems more obvious.  Throw in the score deficit and I should be cubing for sure.

I suppose I overemphasized the one negative aspect of my position - that is I am stacked and stripped.

**********
Same position after I didn't cube.  Now I have 61 to play.
is GammonsDad

score: 2
pip: 142
7 point match
pip: 119
score: 0

is Chutzpah
XGID=-a-C-aD-D---bBB--bcea-----:0:0:1:61:0:2:0:7:10
to play 61

1.XG Roller++8/2 3/2eq: +0.796
Player:
Opponent:
67.73% (G:15.83% B:0.40%)
32.27% (G:5.64% B:0.17%)
2.XG Roller++13/7 8/7eq: +0.764 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:
66.89% (G:14.70% B:0.66%)
33.11% (G:6.02% B:0.24%)
3.XG Roller++14/13 14/8eq: +0.706 (-0.090)
Player:
Opponent:
66.64% (G:12.35% B:0.26%)
33.36% (G:5.48% B:0.15%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

61 is actually a decent roll but I misplayed it.

Making the duece point is best, and looking at the position now a week later seems rather obvious.  The only purpose in life for my dilly builder on the 3 point is to make the 2 or 1 point.  I have the opportunity to do so now and should seize it.  As a side bonus it puts more pressure on my opponent to anchor up.
Making the bar point is second best.  This gives me decent structure which should make it easier to roll home or attack should GammonsDad miss me next roll.  Also he only has a 1 1/2 point board so his hits are not too dangerous at the moment.

My wimpy play 14/8, 14/13 is the wrong concept.  I clear the rearmost point which is good, but add to my stacks while giving up a point instead of making one.  Ironically I now have less flexibility because my overstacked position has few landing places to run to.

***********
I trail 5 away Crawford and have 42 to play.
is GammonsDad

score: 6
pip: 144
7 point match
Crawford
pip: 155
score: 2

is Chutzpah
XGID=----BBBbB--BbC-b-d-e----B-:0:0:1:42:2:6:1:7:10
to play 42

1.XG Roller++24/20 13/11eq: -0.055
Player:
Opponent:
46.69% (G:9.67% B:0.31%)
53.31% (G:11.83% B:0.34%)
2.XG Roller++24/18eq: -0.055 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
46.74% (G:8.78% B:0.27%)
53.26% (G:10.67% B:0.30%)
3.XG Roller++24/22 13/9eq: -0.056 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
46.58% (G:10.63% B:0.32%)
53.42% (G:11.87% B:0.41%)
4.XG Roller++24/22 8/4eq: -0.075 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
45.63% (G:11.19% B:0.33%)
54.37% (G:12.77% B:0.46%)
5.XG Roller++24/20 8/6eq: -0.076 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
45.63% (G:10.51% B:0.30%)
54.37% (G:12.74% B:0.41%)
6.XG Roller++24/20 11/9eq: -0.084 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:
45.18% (G:10.50% B:0.33%)
54.82% (G:12.98% B:0.58%)
7.XG Roller++24/22 24/20eq: -0.088 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:
45.12% (G:8.40% B:0.27%)
54.88% (G:11.92% B:0.29%)
8.XG Roller++13/9 11/9eq: -0.096 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent:
44.63% (G:9.94% B:0.30%)
55.37% (G:12.49% B:0.46%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

While my play wasn't god awful, it is an error of concept and worth exploring.  I made the 8th best play, 13/9, 11/9.  I figured make another point and don't really care if I get hit.  I also don't care if I get gammoned and may be a nuisance on the ace point.  I also don't want him to unload his stacks on my little head.

+++  The plays are similar for money so the gammons aren't the issue.

The most obvious thing to note is that the 7 superior plays all involve splitting one way or another.

Rather than my OTB thinking, perhaps I should been thinking like this ...

My opponent has an anchor, so I need one to.  I have the better board so contact / action favors me.  The risk of splitting is small now.  The race is close so I keep many options open to winning.  I might amchor and win the race or I might anchor and hit a  shot later or I my opponent might leave a blot immediately.  Should I hit I will become an immediate favrite having gained in the race and possessing the better board.  24/18 is the best split probaably because of the distraction factor.  Barring doubles, GammonsDad will not be able to hit me and make a home board point at the same time.  Further he will have to abandon the stripped midpoint or 10 point to hit me.

************

I trail 4 away Post Crawford and have alreaded turned the cube.  43 to play.

is GammonsDad

score: 6
pip: 153
7 point match
pip: 135
score: 3

is Chutzpah
XGID=-a-C-bCBC---bBa--b-cbbB---:1:-1:1:43:3:6:0:7:10
to play 43

1.XG Roller++22/15eq: -0.107
Player:
Opponent:
36.86% (G:7.43% B:0.30%)
63.14% (G:22.31% B:0.80%)
2.XG Roller++8/1* eq: -0.122 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
35.89% (G:7.64% B:0.17%)
64.11% (G:17.72% B:0.74%)
3.XG Roller++8/4 7/4eq: -0.136 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:
34.64% (G:8.18% B:0.30%)
65.36% (G:18.05% B:0.84%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I made the 'creative' play 8/4, 7/4 which improves my board but leaves a double shot.

Better was 22/15.  Running seems to be the best.  Given the score, gammons don't count.  Up in the race and the role plays awkward otherwise, it looks like racing is a good idea.  There is a slight duplication of 3's which is probably a small factor as well.