Julius High

Below are selected errors from my match against Julius High in Cleveland.  Unfortunately Julius has only only been able to provide me with a portion of the match.  These positions cover the first several games only.


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1) First game of 9 point match.  Cube Action?

is Julius High score: 0 pip: 139

9 point match

pip: 127 score: 0 is Bill Calton

XGID=-aB-BaCBA---cC---bBdb-b---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:9:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	64.01% (G:24.71% B:0.51%)	64.08% (G:25.28% B:0.52%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	35.99% (G:9.31% B:0.34%)	35.92% (G:9.42% B:0.35%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.435	+0.906
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.597 (-0.043)
Double/Take:	+0.640
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.360)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I rolled.  Computer gives this as a clear double.  Let's take a quick look at PRAT.

Julius has the better board but I am anchored and he isn't.  (POSITION about even)

I am up in the race (a modest RACE lead)

but the key is the position is volatile and gammonish. (Big time THREATS)

Most likely I hit loose or hit two (point on him if lucky) when Julius is under pressure to perform from the bar.  The position is an easy take of course, since Julius has plenty of ways to win this game.  The big sin is to win a gammon with the cube on one (which is actually what happened).

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2) Same game.  53 to play.

is Julius High score: 0 pip: 145

9 point match

pip: 103 score: 0 is Bill Calton

XGID=bAB-CBBAA---cA---bBdb-b---:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:9:10

to play 53

1.	XG Roller++	18/13 4/1	eq: +1.538
	Player: Opponent: 88.68% (G:73.59% B:0.61%) 11.32% (G:1.96% B:0.14%)
2.	XG Roller++	13/8 4/1	eq: +1.506 (-0.031)
	Player: Opponent: 87.70% (G:71.72% B:0.59%) 12.30% (G:1.91% B:0.11%)
3.	3-ply	8/3 4/1	eq: +1.383 (-0.154)
	Player: Opponent: 82.50% (G:65.75% B:0.64%) 17.50% (G:4.38% B:0.27%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I moved 13/8, 4/1.  This covers the blot and brings another man around to complete the closeout.

Certainly a reasonable move, but a small technical error.  Better is 18/13, 4/1.  Julius counseled me on such positions.  He observes the key is whether the extra builder is diversified or not.  Here the extra man lands on top of my 8 point.  So even though this is an extra man, it's not a diversified or effective builder for the 3 point.  Therefore, it's slightly better to scramble the last man home as this is slightly better achievement for one roll.  The anti-joker 33 could be trouble down the line.

If the spare moved the 9 point (say with a 43) then bringing the builder down would be right. 

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3) I lead 7 away 5 away.  own the cube and have this 26 from the bar.

is Julius High score: 4 pip: 67

9 point match

pip: 119 score: 2 is Bill Calton

XGID=-BBABBB--A------a--cdcbBbA:1:1:1:62:2:4:0:9:10

to play 62

1.	XG Roller++	Bar/17	eq: -0.966
	Player: Opponent: 10.47% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 89.53% (G:20.19% B:0.62%)
2.	XG Roller++	Bar/23 9/3	eq: -1.048 (-0.082)
	Player: Opponent: 7.74% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 92.26% (G:21.28% B:0.61%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I made the board.  Bar/23, 9/3.  I make the board and don't want to get hit.  The problem is I am under immediate pressure to roll a 5 or 6 next turn.  The problem is this happens on 16 total rolls!!

Note this happens more often than I get hit by popping out with Bar/17.  I get 11 times immediately versus the 16 times I bust so popping out is actually relatively safer!!

Clearly popping out is the DMP play but the gammons are only a tiny bit higher.  This is perhaps the big eye-opener of the position.  It looks scary to volunteer a direct shot but we only get gammoned 1% more often.

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4) I trail 7 away 3 away and own the cube.  Cube action?

is Julius High score: 6 pip: 113

9 point match

pip: 168 score: 2 is Bill Calton

XGID=---BbaCBC---------AcccDc--:1:1:1:00:2:6:0:9:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	50.43% (G:11.30% B:0.44%)	50.57% (G:11.36% B:0.47%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	49.57% (G:23.78% B:0.75%)	49.43% (G:23.88% B:0.72%)
Cubeless Equities	-0.024	+0.673
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.612 (-0.061)
Redouble/Take:	+0.673
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.327)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Julius has violated Stick's rule for 3 away 6 away or more. Namely "never double with contact." The proper doubling window for the leader is very difficult to find. You are better off trying to win an undoubled gammon or to simply double the opponent out from a winning position.

The reasons are:

1) leader cripples his own gammons (a gamon wins four points when only three is needed to win, thus creating overage). Leader's gammon value is only about .35 at this score.

2) trailer has tremendous cube leverage. Trailer should be looking any excuse to send a recube. reasons:

a) Leader's gammons are killed. A single loss or doubled loss loses the match either way.

b) Leader holds a dead cube. He can never redouble you out and must get all the way to 100%. Sometimes you turn around a hopeless game late that you would otherwise lose at a normal score since opponent can't double you out.

c) Trailer's gammons are now quite valuable. A lucky gammon now scores 8 points and suddenly wins you the match!!

Looking at the computer's Cube Information function, it appears the doubling window opens at about 40% and closes at 70% (Not adjusting for gammons). So Julius has an elevated take point of 30%. Once again, this doesn't factor in the gammons.

In this position I am already about 50/50 with 11% gammons and as you can see, this is a powerful recube. The lessons...

1) You can take deep as the Trailer at a lopsided score

2) If you take you MUST recube aggressively to get full value out of the take!

3) My own "rule of thumb" for these lopsided scores is to think about the recube nce you get to about 50/50 game. Too bad I didn't follow this advice on this game.

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5) Next roll of the same game.  Cube action?

is Julius High score: 6 pip: 113

9 point match

pip: 164 score: 2 is Bill Calton

XGID=---BcBBBB---------AcccDba-:1:1:1:00:2:6:0:9:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	60.54% (G:14.52% B:0.56%)	60.94% (G:14.85% B:0.63%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	39.46% (G:15.74% B:0.36%)	39.06% (G:16.22% B:0.34%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.275	+1.208
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.908 (-0.092)
Redouble/Take:	+1.208 (+0.208)
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

OK so there isn't too much drama on this one. Given my writing above we know this is a double. I blew it by not doubling.

I included the position to demonstrate that this position is already a drop according to the computer!!

If I understand the computer correctly, then with a four cube the trailers gammon value is 1.0 while the leaders takepoint is 30%

So from the leaders point of view, Julius would need 30% + 2 x my gammons. So Julius would need 30% + 28% of 58% to take and he is way short of that here. I wonder if I made a mistake on this since 58% seems an absurdly high takepoint and the take error, while large, is only .20. Oh well, math is not my bag, baby.

Karen Davis

Below are selected error from a match against Karen Davis in Cleveland.


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1) I lead 7 away 9 away and am on roll.  Cube action?

is Karen Davis score: 0 pip: 148

9 point match

pip: 118 score: 2 is Bill

XGID=a-B-BCBbB---cC---b-cb--bA-:0:0:1:00:2:0:0:9:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	70.56% (G:31.01% B:0.41%)	70.41% (G:30.90% B:0.45%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	29.44% (G:5.22% B:0.16%)	29.59% (G:5.30% B:0.15%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.679	+1.352
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.867 (-0.133)
Double/Take:	+1.034 (+0.034)
Double/Pass:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I misjudged this one.  I was thinking this was No double.  I figured I need to escape before I am threatening anything.  But the position is deceptive.  The 70/30 wins makes it look a holding game but being on the bar against a 4 point board spells gammons.  As you can see, Karen gets gammoned 30% of the time.

If Karen dances for a while, which could happen, this is really bad.  But most likely Karen comes in after a turn or two but her checker is loose back in my board.  I hit loose and she either performs or gets gammoned.  This is the problem, and why is a drop already.

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2) I lead 5 away 9 away.  21 to play.

is Karen Davis score: 0 pip: 139

9 point match

pip: 161 score: 4 is Bill

XGID=-a----E-E---bBb--bce-B-A--:0:0:1:21:4:0:0:9:10

to play 21

1.	XG Roller++	23/21 6/5	eq: -0.736
	Player: Opponent: 33.75% (G:6.02% B:0.19%) 66.25% (G:13.28% B:0.35%)
2.	XG Roller++	8/5	eq: -0.818 (-0.082)
	Player: Opponent: 33.40% (G:6.46% B:0.21%) 66.60% (G:16.47% B:0.52%)
3.	XG Roller++	8/7 6/4	eq: -0.833 (-0.098)
	Player: Opponent: 34.35% (G:6.58% B:0.23%) 65.65% (G:18.82% B:0.66%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

What an ugly position.  I was tempted to try the real big 6/5, 6/4 or 8/7, 6/4 but decided on 8/5 instead.

I was thinking down in the race I should stay back, and if I get hit I might form a second anchor in her home board.

The computer recommends 23/21, 6/5.  I am so brittle I don't have spares anywhere.  Probably I need this back man to pop out next time just so I can hold the position (especially the midpoint).  Karen only has a one-point board so this game isn't over no matter what happens.


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3) later in the same game.  I own the cube.  54 to play.

is Karen Davis score: 0 pip: 124

9 point match

pip: 144 score: 4 is Bill

XGID=-a--BBC-D--A--b--cbebB-A--:1:1:1:54:4:0:0:9:10

to play 54

1.	XG Roller++	8/4 6/1*	eq: -0.223
	Player: Opponent: 40.09% (G:8.83% B:0.16%) 59.91% (G:12.98% B:0.53%)
2.	XG Roller++	11/6 8/4	eq: -0.288 (-0.065)
	Player: Opponent: 35.37% (G:6.42% B:0.14%) 64.63% (G:8.74% B:0.32%)
3.	3-ply	11/7 6/1*	eq: -0.262 (-0.039)
	Player: Opponent: 39.63% (G:8.47% B:0.21%) 60.37% (G:15.27% B:0.56%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I held tight with 11/6, 8/4.  The problem with this play is it gives Karen a free chance to roll an escaping six.  A good variation for me is Karen doesn't get out and then I hit loose next time...

So let's just hit now.  8/4, 6/1*.  My position is pretty desperate so I should just go for it now.

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4) I lead 5 away 7 away and am on roll.  Cube action?

is Karen Davis score: 2 pip: 135

9 point match

pip: 133 score: 4 is Bill

XGID=a-aBbBBBC-A----A--Abcc-cA-:1:1:1:00:4:2:0:9:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	79.49% (G:21.04% B:0.91%)	79.74% (G:21.26% B:1.05%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	20.51% (G:3.78% B:0.10%)	20.26% (G:3.80% B:0.11%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.785	+1.298
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.947 (-0.053)
Redouble/Take:	+1.017 (+0.017)
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

In my opinion this is a difficult doubling window to find.  Karen has a lowish takepoint at this score - 14% according to my chart.  At the same time redoubling cripples my gammons (they are almost worthless).  So my conclusion is to look for a double out rather than a double in.

Thus the question is, is this a drop or not?  As I wrote above my mindset was never cube ... I am playing for the gammon and if thinks go bad I can try to double out much later.  That said, I don't understand why this is a pass if Karen's win chances are 21%.  Didn't I just say the takepoint was 14%??

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5) DMP.  62 to play.  slot or not?

is Karen Davis score: 8 pip: 159

9 point match

pip: 88 score: 8 is Bill

XGID=-c-BBCBBCA--b----cabbb----:0:0:1:62:8:8:0:9:10

to play 62

1.	XG Roller++	9/3 8/6	eq: +0.550
	Player: Opponent: 77.52% (G:35.85% B:3.69%) 22.48% (G:0.84% B:0.04%)
2.	XG Roller++	9/7 8/2	eq: +0.518 (-0.032)
	Player: Opponent: 75.91% (G:35.04% B:3.94%) 24.09% (G:1.80% B:0.08%)
3.	3-ply	8/2 5/3	eq: +0.517 (-0.033)
	Player: Opponent: 75.87% (G:34.59% B:3.77%) 24.13% (G:1.79% B:0.06%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I went for it with 9/7, 8/6.  Getting hit is bad, but the coffin isn't quite nailed shut yet, and I have a six prime for the time being, so I could still win.

On the other hand, Karen would be jumping for joy if she hits.  Maybe that should be my gauge?  Too much risk for too little gain I suppose.  The stingy 9/3, 8/6 is a tad better per the computer.