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October 3, 2012

brucewayne

Below are selected errors from an online match against brucewayne.

***********
First game of 7 point match and I am on roll.  Cube action?

is brucewayne

score: 0
pip: 151
                         
7 point match
                          pip: 151
score: 0

is Chutzpah
XGID=-b----EBB-A-cC-a-c-d-Bb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:7:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 63.11% (G:18.42% B:0.88%) 63.25% (G:18.57% B:0.89%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 36.89% (G:8.11% B:0.30%) 36.75% (G:8.13% B:0.30%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.374 +0.775
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.571
     Double/Take:+0.492 (-0.079)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.429)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 13.5%
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I doubled and brucewayne took.

A pointless double.

While I have a definite advantage (I have the better anchor and start of a possible prime plus some threats to hit), I am outboarded and have a lot to accomplish yet before the game moves to the drop zone.  I think the key is that I don't have any home board points yet, hence the term "pointless double."  A good rule of thumb is never make a pointless double, and this appears to be no exception.

************
Same game.  I have already doubled.  How to play 63?

is brucewayne

score: 0
pip: 135
                         
7 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 0

is Chutzpah
XGID=aAA--BCaC---aaa--b-dbBbBA-:1:-1:1:63:0:0:0:7:10
to play 63

1.XG Roller+21/12* eq: -0.481
Player:
Opponent:
41.95% (G:16.34% B:1.97%)
58.05% (G:28.51% B:3.43%)
2.XG Roller+24/21 8/2eq: -0.545 (-0.064)
Player:
Opponent:
39.10% (G:14.76% B:1.47%)
60.90% (G:24.14% B:1.41%)
3.XG Roller+21/18 8/2eq: -0.575 (-0.095)
Player:
Opponent:
38.08% (G:17.34% B:2.46%)
61.92% (G:31.78% B:3.66%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2
I was really baffled on this one.  The most optimistic play is simply hitting with 21/12*.  This turns out to be the best play.  I was reluctant to give up the security of the double anchor, but I guess you gotta go for it.

I played 24/21, 8/2.  This preserves timing and covers a blot, but ...  you really don't the two point anyway.  Perhaps most important, by hitting I hold out hope of winning the game going forward, while if he hits I have a good chance to remake a second anchor.  As a bonus, I get to recycle my guys from the deep ace and deuce points.

*************
Later in the same game.  now we are in the containment phase.  How to play this 62?

is brucewayne

score: 0
pip: 92
                         
7 point match
                          pip: 143
score: 0

is Chutzpah
XGID=a-C-BBB---A---A-Ab-ceAbBb-:1:-1:1:62:0:0:0:7:10
to play 62

1.XG Roller+21/13eq: -0.285
Player:
Opponent:
48.52% (G:5.66% B:0.17%)
51.48% (G:13.48% B:0.53%)
2.XG Roller+21/15 14/12eq: -0.288 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
48.42% (G:5.68% B:0.17%)
51.58% (G:13.55% B:0.52%)
3.XG Roller+23/21 16/10eq: -0.457 (-0.172)
Player:
Opponent:
42.22% (G:4.44% B:0.14%)
57.78% (G:16.60% B:0.42%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2
I panicked, by moving 23/21, 16/10. This is a terrible play. I was thinking that I don't want to get stuck on the duece point but this is not a priority right now.

Top priority is containing the lone back checker. Therefore, any play which floods the outfield, eyeballing the escape zone from my 7-12 points is preferable. The best play is 21/13. This positions five checkers to guard the escape zone next roll.

Another concern may be that the two point is my last line of defense, so I should stay there just in case. However, since I have doubled him, this consideration may not apply in this case. If his straggler makes it home, brucewayne can always just double me out.

**************

Next game. I trail 7 away 5 away and am on roll. Cube action?

is brucewayne

score: 2
pip: 123
                         
7 point match
                          pip: 98
score: 0

is Chutzpah
XGID=--ABbBDBC---b----bAbbbc---:0:0:1:00:0:2:0:7:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 64.84% (G:4.03% B:0.11%) 65.29% (G:4.05% B:0.12%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 35.16% (G:3.45% B:0.08%) 34.71% (G:3.81% B:0.13%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.305 +0.638
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.433 (-0.032)
     Double/Take:+0.464
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.536)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2
True I lose my market if my back man escapes but I don't have too many rolls which make it home safe.  So I waited and held the cube.

Turns out this is a small double, and the reason appears to be the score.  I am not sure really why the score makes a such a difference, with gammons so low.  But apparently being behind is enough to push this to a clear cube. 

Compare to same position for money.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 123
                         
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
                          pip: 98
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=--ABbBDBC---b----bAbbbc---:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 64.99% (G:4.29% B:0.13%) 65.30% (G:3.89% B:0.11%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 35.01% (G:4.02% B:0.12%) 34.70% (G:3.47% B:0.09%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.303 +0.621
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.407
Double/Take:+0.347 (-0.060)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.593)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 8.4%
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02

*************
I trail 6 away 5 away and have 65 to play.

is brucewayne

score: 2
pip: 135
                         
7 point match
                          pip: 134
score: 1

is Chutzpah
XGID=-a-B--D-D-A-eB---bBc-aba--:0:0:1:65:1:2:0:7:10
to play 65

1.XG Roller++13/8 13/7eq: +0.233
Player:
Opponent:
53.80% (G:14.16% B:0.36%)
46.20% (G:9.40% B:0.27%)
2.XG Roller++10/4 8/3eq: +0.227 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
53.52% (G:14.70% B:0.35%)
46.48% (G:10.73% B:0.31%)
3.XG Roller++8/2 6/1* eq: +0.205 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:
52.42% (G:18.72% B:0.47%)
47.58% (G:14.99% B:0.56%)
4.XG Roller+13/7 6/1* eq: +0.330 (+0.096)
Player:
Opponent:
55.41% (G:19.87% B:0.54%)
44.59% (G:13.58% B:0.72%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2
I moved 13/8,13/7.

Best was 13/7, 6/1*.  I think this play is right for a couple reasons.  First, brucewayne has two inner board blots. so I can be more bold than usual.  Second, by hitting on the ace point, he can't hit and escape at the same time.  With my play, his hitting sixes either and hit and cover or hit and escape.  Another factor may be that the 13/8, 13/7 play leaves my men stacked and positioned as awkward builders, while with the 13/7, 6/1* play they are better positioned to do something good next time.




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