Presser

Below are selected errors from a match against David Presser. This is from the Chicago Open in May and represents my worst PR performance of the year. Meaning I have plenty of errors to choose from.


9 away 9 away, 54 to play. Hit or not?

is David Presser score: 0 pip: 156

9 point match

pip: 165 score: 0 is Bill

XGID=----b-DAD---cCb--baeB--A--:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:9:10

to play 54

1.	XG Roller++	23/18* 7/3	eq: +0.036
	Player: Opponent: 50.62% (G:10.76% B:0.32%) 49.38% (G:9.46% B:0.33%)
2.	XG Roller++	8/3 7/3	eq: -0.042 (-0.078)
	Player: Opponent: 48.24% (G:9.48% B:0.29%) 51.76% (G:8.48% B:0.28%)
3.	XG Roller+	23/18* 13/9	eq: +0.033 (-0.003)
	Player: Opponent: 50.39% (G:11.78% B:0.42%) 49.61% (G:10.38% B:0.36%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I made the point with 8/3, 7/3.

Better was to hit 23/18*, 7/3.

Looking at this six months later, everything points to the hit.  I am down in the race and have an anchor.  The man on the 23 point is horrible and hitting takes away half the roll.  That's plenty of upside.

Perhaps I was thinking the hit is unlikely to work since I get back with most 3's, 4's and 6's.  But he has a one point board so there is really no danger (little downside) and only upside.  Probably the best argument for hitting is that I give David the whole roll to do something good his turn like make the bar or an inner point.

****************

Later in the same game and I am being doubled.  Take or Drop?

is David Presser score: 0 pip: 129

9 point match

pip: 132 score: 0 is Bill

XGID=---B-bE-D---bC--b-bbc--b-A:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:9:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	71.06% (G:25.57% B:0.23%)	71.17% (G:26.51% B:0.26%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	28.94% (G:4.12% B:0.14%)	28.83% (G:3.90% B:0.14%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.635	+1.332
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.895 (-0.105)
Double/Take:	+1.117 (+0.117)
Double/Pass:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I took a bad one.

This position is similar to #48 of the recent study group.

I am down in all phases of the game;  outboarded, down in the race, and on the bar possibly against a four point board next time.

Probably I was thinking the race is close, it's only a 3 point board and I have counterplay against the men on the 5 anchor.

While this is true, the key seems to be the gammons.  I am looking at a net 25% differential here, much more than I would have guesses.   I am creating an on the fly rule of thumb that these types of positions are low 70's win percent.  To take, therefore you need the gammons to be very low.  Meaning I have way to many outside crossovers here to think about taking.  The only way you take something like this is if the position is analygous to a containment cube.  You got hit bearing in for example.  In a scenario like that you have almost no outside crossovers and are way up in the race.  Of course your opponent wouldn't be cubing then since he has a lot of work to do but the point is made nethertheless.  Gammons would be low so we can take with low 20% winning chances in that scenario.

Another broad lesson is beware of taking a cube when you are behind in all phases of the game.

***************

I lead 7 away 9 away and have 65 to play.

is David Presser score: 0 pip: 152

9 point match

pip: 156 score: 2 is Bill

XGID=-a-a--E-C--AcD-A-bce----A-:0:0:1:65:2:0:0:9:10

to play 65

1.	XG Roller++	15/9 8/3*	eq: -0.323
	Player: Opponent: 44.31% (G:11.60% B:0.46%) 55.69% (G:17.69% B:1.00%)
2.	XG Roller++	15/9 11/6	eq: -0.433 (-0.110)
	Player: Opponent: 40.92% (G:8.94% B:0.30%) 59.08% (G:16.19% B:0.55%)
3.	3-ply	15/9 13/8	eq: -0.344 (-0.021)
	Player: Opponent: 43.12% (G:9.84% B:0.36%) 56.88% (G:16.26% B:0.71%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I made the hopeless play 15/9, 11/6.  This play is so obviously bad I'm not sure why I am even writing this up.  Perhaps I was thinking as follows:  I am up in the race and don't want to get hit.  So leave the six shot, which is a lot, but less than a double shot.

Best is 15/9, 8/3*  I have to leave a direct anyway so I should to strive to do something constructive.

My move 11/6 is the opposite of constructive as I place a sixth man on the 6 point.
Also my move let's David have his whole roll to work with.  He either hits, makes an inside point, anchors, runs.  Everything plays well.  Not good.

On the other hand hitting at least takes half the roll away.  Now David has some bad rolls (like entering sixes or anything that misses).  Also if he is hitting at least he isn't making an inner board point and at any rate David only has a one point board right now so getting hit isn't the end of the world.

******************

I lead 7 away 8 away.  61P-64R-61S-53??

is David Presser score: 1 pip: 153

9 point match

pip: 157 score: 2 is Bill

XGID=-aa---E-C---cEA--bce----A-:0:0:1:53:2:1:0:9:10

to play 53

1.	XG Roller++	8/3 6/3	eq: -0.169
	Player: Opponent: 47.90% (G:11.50% B:0.48%) 52.10% (G:15.32% B:0.48%)
2.	XG Roller++	14/11 13/8	eq: -0.255 (-0.086)
	Player: Opponent: 45.95% (G:10.25% B:0.37%) 54.05% (G:15.36% B:0.47%)
3.	3-ply	24/16	eq: -0.220 (-0.051)
	Player: Opponent: 47.25% (G:8.15% B:0.32%) 52.75% (G:15.18% B:0.48%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I moved 14/11, 13/8.

Best was making the 3 point 8/3, 6/3.

It's usually right to make an inner point rather than clean up that loose outside blot early in the game.

Making a point is always constructive.  He is favored to miss so most of the time you don't get hit.  Even if I do get hit there is some good two duplication at play here.   at least he isn't making a point to hit and is stripping the midpoint.

***********

Later in the same game.  32 play it to take it.

is David Presser score: 1 pip: 131

9 point match

pip: 144 score: 2 is Bill

XGID=-aa---EBC---aD---acdbb--A-:0:0:1:32:2:1:0:9:10

to play 32

1.	XG Roller++	13/8	eq: -0.692
	Player: Opponent: 38.40% (G:8.36% B:0.39%) 61.60% (G:25.86% B:0.55%)
2.	XG Roller++	24/22 13/10	eq: -0.886 (-0.194)
	Player: Opponent: 38.05% (G:8.03% B:0.46%) 61.95% (G:33.09% B:0.81%)
3.	2-ply	6/1*	eq: -0.877 (-0.186)
	Player: Opponent: 35.76% (G:7.67% B:0.30%) 64.24% (G:28.60% B:0.83%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I panicked, moving 24/22, 13/10.

Best was the simple 13/8.

Apparently I wanted to challenge by getting to the edge of the prime immediately. This is the wrong idea here. I don't want to initiate a fight on David's side of the board, where I am outgunned 13 to 1. Better to stay back on the ace where the prime versus prime gameplan has some chance of success. If he does attack me at least it's deep where he'd rather not be.

Also my move exposes another blot which is a bad idea since I will likely be on the bar next time. Further, when I scoot up his only bad rolls are sixes really. But by moving up now 62 and 63 hit the outside man while 64 and 65 hit loose on his inner board. So I am diversifiying his numbers.

All in all a terrible play.

*******************

Next roll and David cubes Take or Drop?

is David Presser score: 1 pip: 131

9 point match

pip: 139 score: 2 is Bill

XGID=-aa---EBC-A-aC---acdbbA---:0:0:-1:00:2:1:0:9:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	61.89% (G:33.86% B:0.92%)	61.74% (G:34.64% B:0.94%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	38.11% (G:8.78% B:0.62%)	38.26% (G:9.28% B:0.96%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.512	+1.108
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.623 (-0.241)	±0.017 (+0.606..+0.640)
Double/Take:	+0.863	±0.026 (+0.838..+0.889)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.137)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 1-ply
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 11.7 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I was crapping my pants and dropped this.

The computer shows this is takeable by a sizable margin.

I don't feel too bad about this one though as I find this hard to judge. We know we get gammoned an awful lot. What is more difficult to see is that we win this game almost 40% of the time. That makes up for a lot of gammons.

****************

7 away 7 away and I am on roll. Cube action?

is David Presser score: 2 pip: 140

9 point match

pip: 127 score: 2 is Bill

XGID=a-aBCBCA----bB-a--bdbb--B-:0:0:1:00:2:2:0:9:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	60.53% (G:40.12% B:1.86%)	60.65% (G:40.29% B:1.78%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	39.47% (G:11.84% B:0.93%)	39.35% (G:11.99% B:0.93%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.510	+1.063
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.620 (-0.124)
Double/Take:	+0.744
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.256)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I rolled, probably confused as to what is going on here. Is a four point black "more than you know" or "less than you think?"
Being confused translate to double per Woolsey's law if nothing else.

Would you want to face a cube here? Doubling would have given David a tough decision. Even though he is an excellent player he still could make a mistake by dropping - but only if I double.

Bottom line is the position is too volatile. Things are going to clear up very soon one way or the other. And a significant amount of the time they clarify with me winning a G-ball. So I simply must cube and see what happens.

***************

I lead 5 away 7 away and have double twos. Your play?

is David Presser score: 2 pip: 138

9 point match

pip: 110 score: 4 is Bill

XGID=-Ba-B-DbC---bD--aa-bbbb---:0:0:1:22:4:2:0:9:10

to play 22

1.	XG Roller++	13/11(4)	eq: +0.789
	Player: Opponent: 71.72% (G:13.98% B:0.13%) 28.28% (G:3.59% B:0.08%)
2.	XG Roller++	6/2*(2)	eq: +0.491 (-0.298)
	Player: Opponent: 64.79% (G:16.24% B:0.14%) 35.21% (G:5.84% B:0.14%)
3.	2-ply	13/9(2)	eq: +0.531 (-0.258)
	Player: Opponent: 66.95% (G:14.04% B:0.18%) 33.05% (G:5.63% B:0.14%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I went for the attack with 6/2*(2).  I was probably thinking that by putting him on the bar I give him 16 dancing rolls.  If he dances I can double (which actually isn't even true but I probably thought that).  And if he comes in at least I flush him forward.

But this is the wrong gameplan.  I am up in the race so I want to race.  Double twos allows me to disengage the men on the midpoint and get closer to home.  This was the correct play.  Also note I have some spares aiming at the open five point and can hope to close it with a future roll.


memo: position after dance.

is Player 2 score: 2 pip: 140

9 point match

pip: 102 score: 4 is Player 1

XGID=aBB-B-BbC---bD--aa-bbbb---:0:0:1:00:4:2:0:9:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	64.03% (G:21.64% B:0.19%)	64.29% (G:21.65% B:0.21%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	35.97% (G:6.22% B:0.12%)	35.71% (G:6.07% B:0.12%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.424	+0.875
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.537
Double/Take:	+0.478 (-0.059)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.463)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 10.2%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

*******************

Score is 5 away 5 away. I have already cubed and have 31 to play.

is David Presser score: 4 pip: 169

9 point match

pip: 108 score: 4 is Bill

XGID=a-BB-BBcC-A-cB--Ac-bc-----:1:-1:1:31:4:4:0:9:10

to play 31

1.	XG Roller++	16/15 13/10	eq: +0.855
	Player: Opponent: 74.61% (G:41.09% B:0.36%) 25.39% (G:3.83% B:0.15%)
2.	XG Roller++	10/6	eq: +0.832 (-0.023)
	Player: Opponent: 74.83% (G:38.64% B:0.25%) 25.17% (G:3.47% B:0.12%)
3.	XG Roller++	16/13 10/9	eq: +0.742 (-0.113)
	Player: Opponent: 73.38% (G:34.46% B:0.23%) 26.62% (G:3.51% B:0.11%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I made the "obvious" and pedestrian 16/13, 10/9. How could safetying the back checker be a whopper?

To be honest I don't know. The computer likes 16/15, 13/10. I suppose you are taking the chance to clear the midpoint now while he is on the bar against a 4 point board. So basically if David doesn't rolla joker now he is toast. A tough one in my opinion.

Note the second best play keeps the midpoint but duplicates fours.

******************

I trail 5 away Crawford. 65 to play. Break the anchor or not?

is David Presser score: 8 pip: 108

9 point match Crawford

pip: 110 score: 4 is Bill

XGID=--ABBBBBA-A-bb---c-cBbba--:0:0:1:65:4:8:1:9:10

to play 65

1.	XG Roller++	10/5 8/2	eq: +0.018
	Player: Opponent: 50.62% (G:5.91% B:0.10%) 49.38% (G:2.35% B:0.06%)
2.	XG Roller++	20/9	eq: -0.043 (-0.061)
	Player: Opponent: 47.33% (G:8.88% B:0.29%) 52.67% (G:3.49% B:0.11%)
3.	XG Roller+	7/2 7/1	eq: +0.027 (+0.009)
	Player: Opponent: 51.10% (G:5.53% B:0.09%) 48.90% (G:2.37% B:0.06%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I bolted with 20/9. Not the worst play in the world but wrong.

Better was 10/5, 8/2. I am not up enough in the race to disengage and the roll plays well so I am better to wait.