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March 10, 2012

Pay Now Pay Later practice

Guidelines from Stick's excellent group lecture, as well as Stick's superb Daily Quiz Recaps.  Unfortunately the DQRs appear to be defunct.

Stick's Pay Now Pay Later Guidelines
  1. How likely is it that if I don't pay now I don't have to pay at all?
    • Do I have a lot of timing left?
  2. If we do decide to pay later are we likely to leave more or less shots than we could leave now?
    • How far away is the point I'm trying to clear.
      • Am I leaving 15 or more (direct) shots? 11 or 12 shots maybe, 13 is pushing it, 14 or more is too many
      • From now until the time we may have to pay later, will our opponent's position (board) improve or deteriorate?
        • Does our opponent have a lot of timing left?
      • Does making the pay now play greatly improve our position when we get away with it?
        • Are we 'virtually gin' if not hit?
      • How does the roll otherwise play?
          • Are we harming our position by breaking a prime or throwing too many spares behind an anchor or do we maintain a decent position?
        • Is there life after death? If so, how much?
            • Does his board have a blot or multiple blots?  Return shots after getting hit are valuable for you.
              • How do the hitting numbers play?  How many hit and cover numbers are there?
            • When in doubt, pay later

            Some recent examples from my own matches.


            I trail 6 away 7 away and have 65 to play.  Pay now or pay later?

            is masurte

            score: 1
            pip: 148
            7 point match
            pip: 98
            score: 0

            is Chutzpah
            to play 65

            1.XG Roller+11/5 9/4eq: +0.416
            68.94% (G:15.81% B:0.69%)
            31.06% (G:3.61% B:0.09%)
            2.XG Roller+11/5 6/1eq: +0.286 (-0.130)
            66.46% (G:9.50% B:0.16%)
            33.54% (G:4.60% B:0.09%)
            eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

            Pay now.  I think the main reason is safe move just looks ridiculous.  Stacked, gapped lacking spares.  You hold your breath roll after roll hoping to roll cute.

            If you are missed you rate to make your 4 point which is huge.  Also if you get hit there is some life after death.  There are return shots plus you might just come in, when the game continues as he can't redouble just yet.

            I trail 5 away 7 away and have 52 to play. Pay now or pay later?

            is udi42

            score: 0
            pip: 112
            7 point match
            pip: 102
            score: 2

            is Chutzpah
            to play 52

            Pay later.  First off, black would be estatic to hit.  That 5 point board is almost certain death.  Almost always a pointer to playing safe.  Other factors.  I have lots of spares and likely time to roll a clean number.  The race is close.  Udi42 will likely clear his midpoint next time and controlling the outfield may be important.  Meaning besides simply coming home clean and winning the race, I have another winning plan in attacking when and if Udi42 decides to vacate the 4 point anchor.  Staying put keeps both gameplans alive.

            I lead 6 away post-Crawford and hold a 2 cube. 61 to play. Pay now or Pay later?

            is Jaflo

            score: 1
            pip: 103
            7 point match
            pip: 85
            score: 6

            is Chutzpah
            to play 61

            1.XG Roller+13/6eq: +0.457
            73.92% (G:3.71% B:0.22%)
            26.08% (G:1.75% B:0.04%)
            2.XG Roller+8/7 8/2eq: +0.363 (-0.093)
            69.76% (G:4.49% B:0.05%)
            30.24% (G:2.61% B:0.06%)
            3.4-ply13/12 13/7eq: +0.421 (-0.035)
            72.59% (G:4.54% B:0.33%)
            27.41% (G:2.51% B:0.07%)
            eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

            Pay now.  Opponent is improving his board.  If we get away with it we are home free.  If he hits we get a chance to hit back from the  bar.  22 is blocked so its 5 shots instead of the normal 6 for an 8-ball.

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