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September 24, 2016

Reply Rolls Revisited: Batch 3



Opening replies, 6-6, 5-5, 4-4, 3-3, 2-2



6-6:

Always play to both bars 24/18(2), 13/7(2) unless the opponent blocks you with 61P. In this case, you play 24/18(2), 8/2(2).


5-5:

13/3(2) unless the guy splits, in which case you blitz with 8/3(2), 6/1(2).




4-4:

Most common is 24/20(2), 13/9(2).
Make another play only when ….

1) you can hit: most of these plays are obvious
a. 24/20(2), 8/4(2)* : 32S (point on head)
b. 24/20*/16*, 8/4(2) : 41$, 43Z (Hit two on outside and make the 4-point)
DMP, GS: 24/20*/16*, 13/9(2)
c. 24/16*, 6/2(2)* : 41S (This is the only play where making the 2-point is correct)
GS: 24/20(2), 13/9(2)
d. 13/5(2)*: 43S, 54S (point on head)
e. 24/16*, 13/9(2): 64S, 54D (hit on outside and make a new point on your side of the board)

GS, DMP 24/16*(2)



is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 157
                         


Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
                         
pip: 167
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=-a----EaC---dE--ac-e----B-:0:0:1:44:0:0:3:0:10
to play 44

1.Book124/16*(2) eq: +0.370

Player:
Opponent:
59.37% (G:13.47% B:0.61%)
40.63% (G:8.90% B:0.33%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.366...+0.374) - [100.0%]
2.Book124/16* 13/9(2)eq: +0.351 (-0.019)

Player:
Opponent:
58.28% (G:16.67% B:0.92%)
41.72% (G:9.78% B:0.40%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.347...+0.356) - [0.0%]
3.3-ply24/16* 6/2(2)eq: +0.276 (-0.094)

Player:
Opponent:
56.52% (G:16.81% B:0.93%)
43.48% (G:9.92% B:0.38%)

 
1 Generated by Neil Kazaross on 8/25/2010 using eXtreme Gammon 1.21
25920 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 59298619
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

** Apparently my notes are wrong and 24/16*(2) is correct


2) The 5-point is blocked. Play 13/5(2) in response to 31P

3) Note sometimes you don’t hit, even when you can:
a. Don’t pounce on the deuce point following 51S, 21S
(except GG, than 8/4(2), 6/2*(2))
b. Don’t hit on 43D. Better to jump up so you can’t get primed, while also starting offense on your side




is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 160
                         


Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
                         
pip: 167
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=-b----E-C---cE-aac-e----B-:0:0:1:44:0:0:3:0:10
to play 44

1.Book124/20(2) 13/9(2)eq: +0.421

Player:
Opponent:
59.46% (G:16.25% B:0.75%)
40.54% (G:7.34% B:0.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.418...+0.424) - [100.0%]
2.Book124/16*(2) eq: +0.411 (-0.010)

Player:
Opponent:
60.19% (G:15.20% B:1.11%)
39.81% (G:10.06% B:0.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.408...+0.414) - [0.0%]
3.Book124/16* 13/9(2)eq: +0.410 (-0.011)

Player:
Opponent:
59.36% (G:18.64% B:1.58%)
40.64% (G:10.50% B:0.53%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.406...+0.413) - [0.0%]
 
1 Generated by GameSite 2000, Ltd on 12/29/2009 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
62208 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 1
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10


4) Note sometimes the default play 24/20(2), 13/9(2) hits incidentally as in 21$ or 62R




3-3.:

Table from ‘Taper Mike’
33A – Attack
8/5(2) 6/3(2)
33B – Both
24/21(2) 13/10(2)
33C – Cross
24/21(2) 8/5(2)
33E – Each
24/21(2) 6/3(2)
33N – Near
13/10(2) 6/3(2)
337 – Seven
13/7(2)
Hit an inside split
32Z 43S 43U 52S 54S
Cannot hit an inside split
21S 41S 51S 32S 43Z
Opponent has four builders
32D 43D
Builder on nine point
54D
Hit outside
63R
Hit a six-split
62S 63S 64S
Opponent makes four point
42P
Opponent makes a point
31P 53P 61P 64P
Opponent slots
21$ 41$ [C=E] 51$



No reason not to
52D 64R
Opponent escapes
65R




’Taper Mike’ http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?read=104993




One of the useful experiments I did was to check how 33 performs as an opening roll. It gave me the idea the when all other things are equal, attacking is the best play. Unless the opponent has done something to change things, my default play with 33 is to attack. Each of the categories in my chart, excepting "No reason not to," is supposed to remind me just what, in fact, has changed.
The same experiment showed that the second best play is B (both up and down). When an attack, for some reason, becomes ill-advised, my first fallback plan is B.
I ended up with the "opponent has four builders" distinction because I was trying to discriminate between rolls like 32D and 43D on the one hand, and 54D, on the other. Of course, 54D also places three checkers in range of the four point, but it does not simultaneously give four builders for the five point.
Another phrase I was tempted to use was "Opponent is about to make a point." This contrasts nicely with "Opponent makes a point." With 32D and 43D, as well as the slotting moves, I developed the notion of "stealing" the five point. My preoccupied opponent has a blot on his five point, or a couple of blots outside, and he will not be able to both hit me (on my eight point) and make a new point on his side of the board. The explanation is useful. Otherwise, when an opponent opens with a slot, my fallback play B should kick in, as it does when my opponent makes a point. Here is an explanation why I can go to plan C (cross) when he is about to make a point.
For 54D, the best I could do was "builder on the nine point." It is supposed to trigger a reminder of the power the 6-8-9 combination has for making new points. That offensive power should cause me to want to make the advanced anchor with 54D (and not with, say, 52D.) Where my clue fails, however, is in providing a suggestion that E (each) is better than B (both) and C (cross), and why. My default attack plan suggests that when all other things are equal, making the five point should be just as good or better than making the three point. So, what's not equal?
The only answer I have now is that the rollouts are unequal!


The “default reply” is 24/21(2), 13/10(2) but the most common reply is actually the wipeout 8/5(2), 6/3(2).   



1) 13/7(2)* is always right when opponent splits to the bar: 62S, 63S, 64S
GS: 24/21(2), 6/3(2)!!! GG 13/7*, 8/5(2)
2) 13/10(2)*, 6/3(2) squeezes the most equity out when you hit 63R
GS: 24/21(2), 13/10*(2)





is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 158
                         


Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
                         
pip: 167
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=-a----E-C-a-eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:33:0:0:3:0:10
to play 33

1.Book113/10*(2) 6/3(2)eq: +0.431

Player:
Opponent:
59.33% (G:20.29% B:1.14%)
40.67% (G:10.17% B:0.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.423...+0.438) - [100.0%]
2.Book113/10*(2) 8/5(2)eq: +0.380 (-0.051)

Player:
Opponent:
57.99% (G:20.92% B:1.06%)
42.01% (G:10.75% B:0.54%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.373...+0.388) - [0.0%]
3.Book124/21(2) 13/10*(2) eq: +0.380 (-0.051)

Player:
Opponent:
58.51% (G:16.78% B:0.66%)
41.49% (G:8.39% B:0.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.373...+0.387) - [0.0%]
 
1 Generated by GameSite 2000, Ltd on 2/26/2011 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 77390818
Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply Red
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10



3)The wipeout play 8/5(2), 6/3(2)
a. Is obviously right when you point on his head: 32Z, 52S, 43S, 43U, 54S
b. It is also right to build the board 8/5(2), 6/3(2) when…
i. Opponent blocks your 3’s with 42P
ii. Opponent runs, leaves an outfield blot, and you miss: as with 62R or 64R
iii. Opponent plays the clumsy 2-down play 52D
c. 24/21(2), 6/3(2) is best against
i. 54D: build the board and confront the super builder on the 9 point without leaving any blots
ii. 62$: not sure why

4) 24/21(2), 8/5(2) is often right
a. Opponent plays a reasonable slot and you miss: 21$, 41$, 51$
b. Opponent plays the good two down tries: 32D or 43D (you have return shots galore if hits you with a seven)
 



is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 162
                         


Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
                         
pip: 167
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=-b----E-C---cEaa-c-e----B-:0:0:1:33:0:0:3:0:10
to play 33

1.Book124/21(2) 8/5(2)eq: +0.282

Player:
Opponent:
55.59% (G:18.02% B:0.83%)
44.41% (G:9.67% B:0.39%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.274...+0.289) - [98.6%]
2.Book18/5(2) 6/3(2)eq: +0.270 (-0.012)

Player:
Opponent:
55.85% (G:19.90% B:1.38%)
44.15% (G:13.72% B:0.72%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.262...+0.277) - [1.4%]
3.Book124/21(2) 6/3(2)eq: +0.252 (-0.029)

Player:
Opponent:
55.36% (G:16.09% B:0.79%)
44.64% (G:9.81% B:0.38%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.245...+0.259) - [0.0%]
 
1 Generated by GameSite 2000, Ltd on 2/26/2011 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 77390818
Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply Red
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
c. Opponent makes a blitzing point: 64P or 53P  (make default play 24/21(2), 13/10(2), probably to push jump over his deep point and put two men permanantly out of play
 



is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 159
                         


Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
                         
pip: 167
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=-b----E-C---eE---b-d--b-B-:0:0:1:33:0:0:3:0:10
to play 33

1.Book124/21(2) 13/10(2)eq: +0.233

Player:
Opponent:
55.03% (G:15.40% B:0.57%)
44.97% (G:9.53% B:0.38%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.227...+0.240) - [100.0%]
2.Book124/21(2) 6/3(2)eq: +0.205 (-0.028)

Player:
Opponent:
54.43% (G:14.96% B:0.61%)
45.57% (G:9.88% B:0.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.198...+0.211) - [0.0%]
3.Book124/21(2) 8/5(2)eq: +0.202 (-0.032)

Player:
Opponent:
53.89% (G:16.42% B:0.57%)
46.11% (G:9.67% B:0.40%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.195...+0.208) - [0.0%]
 
1 Generated by GameSite 2000, Ltd on 2/26/2011 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 77390818
Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply Red

d. Opponent leaps to safety: 65R.  Default play 24/21(2), 13/10(2) once again, the race is viable.




is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 156
                         


Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
                         
pip: 167
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=-a----E-C---fE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:33:0:0:3:0:10
to play 33

1.Book124/21(2) 13/10(2)eq: +0.147

Player:
Opponent:
53.04% (G:12.43% B:0.46%)
46.96% (G:7.35% B:0.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.138...+0.157) - [99.6%]
2.Book124/21(2) 6/3(2)eq: +0.129 (-0.019)

Player:
Opponent:
52.48% (G:11.85% B:0.46%)
47.52% (G:6.63% B:0.33%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.119...+0.138) - [0.4%]
3.Book18/5(2) 6/3(2)eq: +0.121 (-0.026)

Player:
Opponent:
51.84% (G:16.86% B:0.61%)
48.16% (G:10.35% B:0.58%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.112...+0.131) - [0.0%]
 
1 Generated by David Rockwell on 6/6/2010 using eXtreme Gammon 1.14
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21074244
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10



5) The default play 24/21(2), 13/10(2) is best when there is nothing better
 
a. Against splitting plays which don’t hit: 43Z, 21S, 41S, 51S, 32S
 
b. When Opponent makes priming point: 31P, 61P
c. Opponent makes a blitzing point: 64P or 53P
d. Opponent leaps to safety: 65R.




2-2:

By far the most common reply is 13/11(2), 6/4(2).

Exceptions:

1.When you hit
a. Hit the slot and make an inner point 24/20*, 6/4(2) is a great start against the slotting plays 21$, 41$, 51$, 62$
b. Hit in the outfield and make an inner point 13/9*, 6/4(2) is also great versus 62R
c. Use the whole roll to hit 24/16*, only against 64S
(GS 24/20(2))




is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 157
                         


Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
                         
pip: 167
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=-a----EaC---dE--ac-e----B-:0:0:1:22:0:0:3:0:10
to play 22

1.Book124/16* eq: +0.095

Player:
Opponent:
52.44% (G:13.53% B:0.65%)
47.56% (G:12.54% B:0.49%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.088...+0.102) - [100.0%]
2.Book124/22(2) 6/4(2)eq: +0.047 (-0.048)

Player:
Opponent:
50.60% (G:13.19% B:0.48%)
49.40% (G:9.94% B:0.38%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.041...+0.053) - [0.0%]
3.Book113/11(2) 6/4(2)eq: +0.038 (-0.057)

Player:
Opponent:
50.86% (G:14.44% B:0.64%)
49.14% (G:13.25% B:0.62%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.031...+0.045) - [0.0%]
 
1 Generated by GameSite 2000, Ltd on 2/26/2011 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 77390818
Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply Red
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

2. Advance the anchor and make an inner point 24/22(2), 6/4(2) when…
a. Opponent makes an inner board point with 64P, 42P, 31P (Impossible against 53P and not necessary against 61P since you have the better offense).
31P- GG 13/11(2), 6/4(2)
61P, 42P - GS 24/20(2)
 


is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 161
                         


Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
                         
pip: 167
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=-b----E-C---eE---b-d-b--B-:0:0:1:22:0:0:3:0:10
to play 22

1.Book124/22(2) 6/4(2)eq: +0.096

Player:
Opponent:
51.95% (G:13.93% B:0.57%)
48.05% (G:11.22% B:0.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.093...+0.098) - [100.0%]
2.Book113/11(2) 6/4(2)eq: +0.078 (-0.018)

Player:
Opponent:
52.04% (G:15.95% B:0.85%)
47.96% (G:15.22% B:0.80%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.076...+0.081) - [0.0%]
3.Book124/20(2)eq: +0.073 (-0.023)

Player:
Opponent:
51.32% (G:10.81% B:0.35%)
48.68% (G:8.50% B:0.30%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.071...+0.075) - [0.0%]
 
1 Generated by GameSite 2000, Ltd on 3/19/2012 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
46656 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 1
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

b. Opponent brings two builders down with 32D, 43D, 54D (but not 52D, which is a clumsy attacking role. Note you put direct pressure on the blot six pips away versus 43D and 54D)
32D, 43D - GS 24/20(2)


is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 160
                         


Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
                         
pip: 167
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=-b----E-C---cE-aac-e----B-:0:0:1:22:0:0:3:0:10
to play 22

1.Book124/22(2) 6/4(2)eq: +0.191

Player:
Opponent:
54.24% (G:16.32% B:0.81%)
45.76% (G:11.71% B:0.50%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.183...+0.198) - [100.0%]
2.Book113/11(2) 6/4(2)eq: +0.168 (-0.023)

Player:
Opponent:
54.34% (G:17.06% B:1.03%)
45.66% (G:14.93% B:0.85%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.160...+0.175) - [0.0%]
3.Book124/16* eq: +0.152 (-0.038)

Player:
Opponent:
53.73% (G:15.62% B:1.07%)
46.27% (G:13.94% B:0.57%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.144...+0.160) - [0.0%]
 
1 Generated by GameSite 2000, Ltd on 2/26/2011 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 77390818
Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply Red
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10


c. Opponent splits with 41S. (I think this is a nice balance of offense and defense, making an inner point and putting pressure on the blot six pips away)