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April 28, 2015

Take Process

My recent post on the Doubling process has proved popular. It has quickly jumped to my #2 most read entry. Here is the follow up on the Take process.

Note the below does not reflect my current process. Rather, this is how top players supposedly approach a take decision.


For Money:


Adjusted Take Point = (22%) + (Opponent's Net Gammons * 1/2)


For Match: **

Adjusted Take Point = (your Take Point at this score) + [ (Opponent's net Gammons) * (opponent's gammon value at this score)]


** technically it would be (your opponent's gammons * his gammon value - your gammons * your gammon value).  As your gammons are typically small I don't see this extra mental effort as worth the accuracy.

Here are an example.

Cube action? As Player 2 (black) how did you decide on take or pass?

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 163
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 141
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=aaa--CB-D-A-cD---c-dA--b--:0:0:1:D:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 74.18% (G:22.27% B:1.33%) 74.51% (G:23.04% B:1.34%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 25.82% (G:4.78% B:0.14%) 25.49% (G:4.79% B:0.13%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.670 +1.370
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.936 (-0.064)
Double/Take:+1.187 (+0.187)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Using the method, you estimate your opponent's gammons and your gammons,  If you were able to correctly guess 22% for opponent and 5% for you then the net gammon loss is 17.5%.  Add half of this to 22% to get an adjusted takepoint of 29.5%.  Now you look at the position as Black and reckon, do I win this game more or less than 29.5%.  If yes, Take,  If no, Drop.

I have to admit that I typically don't do this as estimating gammons is tough.  It's also hard to then look at the position and figure out what 29.5% looks like.  But hey kids, if you want to play like the pro's this is the way to go!

***************

Here is another example, showing match play considerations.

This is the position after 43 Split, 33 Attack and Dance. You trail 5 away 4 away and are being doubled?
Take or Drop?

is Player 2

score: 3
pip: 165
7 point match
pip: 155
score: 2

is Player 1
XGID=aa-B-BC-A---dE-a-c-e----B-:0:0:1:00:2:3:0:7:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 67.40% (G:29.03% B:1.67%) 67.31% (G:29.81% B:1.67%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 32.60% (G:6.86% B:0.30%) 32.69% (G:7.02% B:0.32%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.558 +1.352
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.858 (-0.142)
Double/Take:+1.085 (+0.085)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

If you knew this was a close take for money than you might reason that an elevated gammon value makes this dangerous and is probably a pass.  Likely how I would approach such a position.

Using the take process:

Estimate 29% gammons for opponent and 7% gammons for you or 22% net gammons lost.
Approximate opponent's gammon value as .80
and approximate your takepoint at 5 away 4 away as 24.5%

Recall: adj TP = (TP at this score) + (Net gammons lost * Opponent's gammon value)

Adj TP = 24.5 + (22 * .8) or about 42%

Then the question is: Do you win this position 42% of the time?
If yes, Take.
If no, Drop.

**************

If you like this approach, let me recommend you create something like the below in Excel.  Using the above approach, you can estimate whether position is a take or drop at various scores.  In other words, what impact does the match score have on this position compared to a money game?

Numbers in green and red refer to the size of the take or pass.



April 15, 2015

Grant

Below are selected errors from my first round match against Grant Schneider in Cleveland.


*************
Last post, I made many huge mistakes fighting the backgame.  This time I make several horrible plays as the backgamer.  The next several positions are scenes from the first game of an 11 point match.

1) 11 to play.

is Grant

score: 0
pip: 99
11 point match
pip: 174
score: 0

is Bill
XGID=--B--BB-B--a-B--cb-dCcbB--:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:11:10
to play 11

1.XG Roller++13/11* 8/7(2)eq: -0.416
Player:
Opponent:
42.69% (G:6.93% B:0.21%)
57.31% (G:21.00% B:1.00%)
2.XG Roller++13/12 13/11* 11/10eq: -0.500 (-0.084)
Player:
Opponent:
40.97% (G:6.36% B:0.19%)
59.03% (G:22.43% B:1.07%)
3.3-ply13/11*(2) eq: -0.494 (-0.078)
Player:
Opponent:
40.47% (G:5.82% B:0.23%)
59.53% (G:20.87% B:0.72%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I moved 13/11*/10, 13/12.   I hit an early shot and now have the rare chance of winning the backgame by going forward.  My strategy was to spread my checkers around to patrol the outfield with this play.

I think the concept is OK actually, but double 1's gives me an opportunity to improve my structure which I shouldn't pass up.  Namely, by moving 13/11*, 8/7(2) I open the possibility of forming a full prime.  The 8 point and 2 point are seven points apart and can never be part of the same prime.  Related to this concept, it is possible for Grant to enter poorly on the ace point and get stuck there - but only if I advance to the bar point.

*************

2) Grant has escaped and now I am back to normal backgame mode.  31 to play.

is Grant

score: 0
pip: 91
11 point match
pip: 175
score: 0

is Bill
XGID=--B--BB-BA----A-db-cBccBA-:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:11:10
to play 31

1.XG Roller++8/4eq: -0.830
Player:
Opponent:
37.27% (G:4.15% B:0.14%)
62.73% (G:33.94% B:1.64%)
2.XG Roller++24/20eq: -0.910 (-0.080)
Player:
Opponent:
34.92% (G:3.41% B:0.11%)
65.08% (G:31.58% B:1.17%)
3.XG Roller+23/20 2/1eq: -1.314 (-0.483)
Player:
Opponent:
19.59% (G:2.43% B:0.08%)
80.41% (G:57.08% B:3.02%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Clearly leaving my man on the ace point is the "DMP" play, since I need a hit and maximizing contact gives the most chances to hit something.  On the other hand, this contact is double-edged since I could be pointed on or simply hit loose and miss, at which point I am sure to get gammoned more.  How to judge this tradeoff?

I was pleased to get out of harm's way with 24/20 and lessen the gammon threat but this turns out to be the wrong idea. 

The computer likes 8/4.  The evaluation shows I get more than enough extra wins to compensate for the extra gammon losses.

However, I think the main reason has to do with cube position.  By staying back, the computer thinks Grant is just shy of a cube.  By jumping up, the computer thinks Grant has a dig double.  So perhaps I get gammoned less since sometimes Grant hits loose and I miss or points on me and I dance.  In these instances Grant blows by his market and wins only one point.  Compare to my play where by jumping up I give Grant an efficient double that I must take - frequently losing 2 or 4 points.

****************

3) Once again I hit an early shot and get to try to win going forward.  55 to play.

is Grant

score: 0
pip: 89
11 point match
pip: 181
score: 0

is Bill
XGID=--B--BB-Ba----A-cA-cCddA-A:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:11:10
to play 55

1.XG Roller++Bar/15 20/15 14/9* eq: -0.459
Player:
Opponent:
42.26% (G:6.24% B:0.21%)
57.74% (G:27.85% B:0.75%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/20 14/9* 8/3(2)eq: -0.664 (-0.205)
Player:
Opponent:
38.51% (G:5.43% B:0.16%)
61.49% (G:28.31% B:0.83%)
3.XG Roller+Bar/15 17/12 14/9* eq: -0.455 (+0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
42.25% (G:6.17% B:0.21%)
57.75% (G:27.01% B:0.91%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I made the board with Bar/20, 14/9*, 8/3(2).  The problem with this play is am too disconnected and lack outfield control.  While making the board is desirable it is premature.  I still have six men stuck on Grant's side of the board and am too far away from threatening to close the fifth point in my board.

Therefore, my priority is to extricate my back men and control the outfield.  I am going to need to hit Grant's several more times as he tries to escape, so I should prepare my men for this task.  The computer likes, Bar/20, 14/9*, 20/15(2) but equally respectable is Bar/20, 14/9*, 20/15, 17/12.  These plays all move plenty of ammo into the outfield from where they patrol the escape zone.

*************

4) 64 to play.

is Grant

score: 0
pip: 98
11 point match
pip: 161
score: 0

is Bill
XGID=a-BB-BB--A------cA-cDddA--:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:11:10
to play 64

1.XG Roller++20/14 17/13eq: -0.239
Player:
Opponent:
46.89% (G:7.18% B:0.18%)
53.11% (G:20.94% B:0.72%)
2.XG Roller++23/13eq: -0.292 (-0.053)
Player:
Opponent:
44.96% (G:6.20% B:0.16%)
55.04% (G:20.17% B:0.53%)
3.3-ply20/10eq: -0.299 (-0.060)
Player:
Opponent:
45.87% (G:6.85% B:0.20%)
54.13% (G:22.84% B:0.77%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Once again the theme is to flood the outfield in order to control the escape zone territory.  If Grant pops in and out with a four I need to be ready to hit him in the outer board.  Therefore, 20/14, 17/13 is the play.

I got panicky about my back blot being vulnerable and popped him out with 23/13. Besides being wimpy and the wrong strategy, I should have been wanting to unstack my checkers on the 5 point anchor.

*************

5) 63 to play.

is Grant

score: 0
pip: 111
11 point match
pip: 95
score: 0

is Bill
XGID=aBCaBBC----A----b--cBdd---:1:-1:1:63:0:0:0:11:10
to play 63

1.XG Roller++20/14 6/3* eq: +1.074
Player:
Opponent:
85.75% (G:41.86% B:0.68%)
14.25% (G:3.13% B:0.21%)
2.XG Roller++11/5 6/3* eq: +0.974 (-0.101)
Player:
Opponent:
83.22% (G:37.76% B:0.58%)
16.78% (G:2.69% B:0.12%)
3.3-ply20/17 11/5eq: +0.971 (-0.104)
Player:
Opponent:
84.73% (G:33.41% B:0.56%)
15.27% (G:1.88% B:0.06%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2


I attribute this mistake to playing on autopilot.  I moved 11/5, 6/3*.  Hit loose, bring in a direct cover, pick up the dice.  Easy.  Right?  Wrong.

After my play notice 42 and 22 don't cover so I only have 8 covers.  Also, 44 is a horror show.

After the correct 20/14*, 6/3* it turns out I also have 8 covers!  All 8's work plus 65 so the covers are the same, but 44 plays fine and is clearly more flexible.

**********

6) I lead 9 away 11 away.  32 to play from the air.

is Grant

score: 0
pip: 138
11 point match
pip: 144
score: 2

is Bill
XGID=-aBaB-B-C--BaB--acbd-b-A-A:0:0:1:32:2:0:0:11:10
to play 32

1.XG Roller++Bar/20eq: -0.400
Player:
Opponent:
41.82% (G:13.39% B:0.97%)
58.18% (G:22.66% B:0.95%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/23 11/8eq: -0.626 (-0.226)
Player:
Opponent:
34.75% (G:9.38% B:0.36%)
65.25% (G:16.61% B:0.81%)
3.3-plyBar/22 8/6eq: -0.407 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
42.07% (G:12.89% B:0.79%)
57.93% (G:22.43% B:1.14%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

This one is embarassing.  I looked for the security of the anchor with Bar/23, 11/8.

I needed to realize that "playing safe" is actually the riskiest play of all.  I am drifting into a bad position which will not age well.

Instead I need to recognize I have a bad position and need to make a bid for an anchor now before it's too late.  Bar/20 is called for.  For this roll only I have the better board and Grant has some loose blots that need tidying up before he can double.  I absolutely need to take a chance now by coming up to his five point and hope for the best.

*************
 7) Score is 9 away 7 away and I hold a four cube.  53 from the bar.  In and out or in and kill?


is Grant

score: 4
pip: 94
11 point match
pip: 74
score: 2

is Bill
XGID=-DBaBCC---aa-------cbb-bcA:2:1:1:53:2:4:0:11:10
to play 53

1.XG Roller++Bar/17eq: +0.300
Player:
Opponent:
49.38% (G:3.97% B:0.06%)
50.62% (G:1.28% B:0.03%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/22 6/1eq: +0.080 (-0.220)
Player:
Opponent:
41.66% (G:7.09% B:0.12%)
58.34% (G:1.63% B:0.03%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2


Once again I made the superficially "safe" play Bar/22, 6/1 which is actually not safe at all.

If I had properly came out with Bar/17 it is true I step into a lot of shots but this my best chance to win.  Grant would have all sixes and sevens to hit (17 sixes plus 52 and 43 or 21 hitters) but if Grant misses I can send a powerful 8 cube which he will probably have to drop.  So by stepping out I basically get a significant free shot at winning the game right now.

On the other hand by staying back, Grant has all threes, 11's and 12's to hit.  I am not sure if he chooses to hit with all these rolls but he does with most of them.  It is true I hit back ~30% of the time when he hits loose but bottom line is I am giving him extra sequences to win.  Why?  Well, he either hits loose when I am a big underdog to win, -or- he simply makes a move in the outfield.  Then, and this is the kicker, I am hoping to roll number to get into the outfield where he will have a double shot at me!!  So if a good scenario is I move into a doubleshot next turn... why not just do it now?

************

8) Later in the same game.  I trail 9 away 7 away and am holding a 4 cube.  Cube action?

is Grant

score: 4
pip: 14
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 26
score: 2

is Bill
XGID=-DAACA-----------------ed-:2:1:1:00:2:4:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 46.59% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 46.58% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 53.41% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 53.42% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities -0.068 +0.126
Cubeful Equities
     No redouble:+0.167
     Redouble/Take:+0.127 (-0.040)
     Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.833)
 
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 4.4%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2



I know this is a snore of a take but is it a double? Winning 8 points would be sweet but is it worth putting the matchon the line?

I am not math oriented when it comes to backgammon. I guessed I was about 50/50 to win from here and also guessed my doubling window would open at about 50%. This was based on nothing at all except a hunch. Turns out this is a no double but I wasn't too far off.

Alter the score my making me trail by 3 points instead of three and then the position is a correct Double / Take.