Note the below does not reflect my current process. Rather, this is how top players supposedly approach a take decision.

**For Money:**

Adjusted Take Point = (22%) + (Opponent's Net Gammons * 1/2)

**For Match: ****

Adjusted Take Point = (your Take Point at this score) + [ (Opponent's net Gammons) * (opponent's gammon value at this score)]

** technically it would be (your opponent's gammons * his gammon value - your gammons * your gammon value). As your gammons are typically small I don't see this extra mental effort as worth the accuracy.

Here are an example.

Cube action? As Player 2 (black) how did you decide on take or pass?

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 163 | ||||||||||||||||

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver | ||||||||||||||||

pip: 141 score: 0 is Player 1 | ||||||||||||||||

XGID=aaa--CB-D-A-cD---c-dA--b--:0:0:1:D:0:0:3:0:10 | ||||||||||||||||

on roll, cube action? |

Analyzed in XG Roller++ | No double | Double/Take |

Player Winning Chances: | 74.18% (G:22.27% B:1.33%) | 74.51% (G:23.04% B:1.34%) |

Opponent Winning Chances: | 25.82% (G:4.78% B:0.14%) | 25.49% (G:4.79% B:0.13%) |

Cubeless Equities | +0.670 | +1.370 |

Cubeful Equities | ||

No double: | +0.936 (-0.064) | |

Double/Take: | +1.187 (+0.187) | |

Double/Pass: | +1.000 | |

Best Cube action: Double / Pass |

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Using the method, you estimate your opponent's gammons and your gammons, If you were able to correctly guess 22% for opponent and 5% for you then the net gammon loss is 17.5%. Add half of this to 22% to get an adjusted takepoint of 29.5%. Now you look at the position as Black and reckon, do I win this game more or less than 29.5%. If yes, Take, If no, Drop.

I have to admit that I typically don't do this as estimating gammons is tough. It's also hard to then look at the position and figure out what 29.5% looks like. But hey kids, if you want to play like the pro's this is the way to go!

***************

Here is another example, showing match play considerations.

This is the position after 43 Split, 33 Attack and Dance. You trail 5 away 4 away and are being doubled?

Take or Drop?

is Player 2 score: 3 pip: 165 | ||||||||||||||||

7 point match | ||||||||||||||||

pip: 155 score: 2 is Player 1 | ||||||||||||||||

XGID=aa-B-BC-A---dE-a-c-e----B-:0:0:1:00:2:3:0:7:10 | ||||||||||||||||

on roll, cube action? |

Analyzed in XG Roller++ | No double | Double/Take |

Player Winning Chances: | 67.40% (G:29.03% B:1.67%) | 67.31% (G:29.81% B:1.67%) |

Opponent Winning Chances: | 32.60% (G:6.86% B:0.30%) | 32.69% (G:7.02% B:0.32%) |

Cubeless Equities | +0.558 | +1.352 |

Cubeful Equities | ||

No double: | +0.858 (-0.142) | |

Double/Take: | +1.085 (+0.085) | |

Double/Pass: | +1.000 | |

Best Cube action: Double / Pass |

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

If you knew this was a close take for money than you might reason that an elevated gammon value makes this dangerous and is probably a pass. Likely how I would approach such a position.

Using the take process:

Estimate 29% gammons for opponent and 7% gammons for you or 22% net gammons lost.

Approximate opponent's gammon value as .80

and approximate your takepoint at 5 away 4 away as 24.5%

Recall: adj TP = (TP at this score) + (Net gammons lost * Opponent's gammon value)

Adj TP = 24.5 + (22 * .8) or about 42%

Then the question is: Do you win this position 42% of the time?

If yes, Take.

If no, Drop.

**************

If you like this approach, let me recommend you create something like the below in Excel. Using the above approach, you can estimate whether position is a take or drop at various scores. In other words, what impact does the match score have on this position compared to a money game?

Numbers in green and red refer to the size of the take or pass.