Search This Blog

Loading...

April 16, 2013

JQ autopsy post 1

I recorded my matches from the Flint tournament Sunday.

This post is called "autposy" since I am going to make an attempt to write up ALL of my errors.  I start with my match against JQ.  Fair warning - given my knack for starting but not finishing projects, who knows how this will go?  Especially since I expect this to be a truly humbling experience.

************

1st game of 9 point match.  61 to play.

is JQ

score: 0
pip: 126
                         
9 point match
                          pip: 147
score: 0

is Bill
XGID=----BBCBBa--d----bbdCA-b--:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:9:10
to play 61

1.XG Roller++20/14 6/5eq: -0.596
Player:
Opponent:
32.89% (G:4.32% B:0.09%)
67.11% (G:7.25% B:0.13%)
2.XG Roller++20/13eq: -0.615 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
32.63% (G:4.85% B:0.12%)
67.37% (G:8.12% B:0.16%)
3.XG Roller++20/14 8/7eq: -0.617 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
32.28% (G:4.34% B:0.10%)
67.72% (G:7.53% B:0.14%)
4.XG Roller++21/14eq: -0.660 (-0.064)
Player:
Opponent:
30.63% (G:3.18% B:0.07%)
69.37% (G:5.24% B:0.07%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I moved 21/14.  This play is wrong on principle. 

All the top plays involve 20/14 with 6/5 being the best ace.

I am down in the race and have a killer board.  I need contact, specifically I need hit.  Therefore I shouldn't touch the man on the 21 point.  Essentially I am playing a phantom 54 backgame here.  My board is so strong that JQ must respect it.  He would probably think twice about even pointing on me since a return hit form the bar almost wins on the spot.

Another smaller factor is that I have 3 men on the 20 point.  The urge to simply move off this point is strong, and makes perfect sense here.  I get contact and maintain timing.  Seems obvious in retrospect.

***********

Later in the same game and I have 64 to play.

is JQ

score: 0
pip: 75
                         
9 point match
                          pip: 93
score: 0

is Bill
XGID=-ABBBCBA---------bbdBcac--:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:9:10
to play 64

1.XG Roller++20/16 20/14eq: -0.832
Player:
Opponent:
25.08% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
74.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.XG Roller++20/10eq: -0.881 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent:
24.54% (G:0.16% B:0.00%)
75.46% (G:0.73% B:0.01%)
3.3-ply20/14 7/3eq: -0.931 (-0.098)
Player:
Opponent:
23.41% (G:0.19% B:0.00%)
76.59% (G:1.02% B:0.01%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I ran with one man, 20/10.  I didn't want to disengage into an almost hopeless race and noticed the homeboard blot.  Unless he rolls a perfecta he probably won't hit me, and on the other hand if rolls awkward he may have to damage his distribution a bit for the coming bearoff.  Or so I figured.

Best was to just get out of dodge immediately with 20/16, 20/14.  I guess he only hits me if it's good for him, and there are just more of those numbers than the awkward slow the race numbers.  I guess he'd prefer to place aces and dueces to the 5 point to fill in for the race ... but if my guy is there some of those same aces and duces just pick / pass / and cover.  (21, 31, 32, 22 and 11 are all of a sudden great rolls)

And while the race sucks after leaping out it still represents the best chance to win.  And while I know this play is more likely to get the cube, it is a takeable race cube.  Not run, but a take.

***********

I trail 9 away 8 away and have 63 to play.

is JQ

score: 1
pip: 186
                         
9 point match
                          pip: 122
score: 0

is Bill
XGID=-b-abCD-CB--bB-A-abbba----:0:0:1:63:0:1:0:9:10
to play 63

1.XG Roller+9/3* 6/3eq: +0.578
Player:
Opponent:
57.34% (G:29.17% B:3.44%)
42.66% (G:5.68% B:0.22%)
2.XG Roller+15/9 8/5eq: +0.458 (-0.120)
Player:
Opponent:
56.63% (G:24.36% B:1.77%)
43.37% (G:6.76% B:0.23%)
3.4-ply15/9 6/3* eq: +0.570 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
58.63% (G:26.87% B:2.67%)
41.37% (G:6.51% B:0.26%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

Yes it's completely obvious. 9/3*, 6/3 points on JQ's head. I just missed it. This is a case of tunnel vision. Mentally I focused on getting my back man to safety. So I played the "forced" six 15/9 and then looked for the best 3. I settled on 8/5. You can't make the best play if you don't even see it. What an unfortunate unforced error.

***********

Next I trail 9 away 7 away and have 61 to play.

is JQ

score: 2
pip: 158
                         
9 point match
                          pip: 191
score: 0

is Bill
XGID=--a--aE-B---dD--ac-eA---BA:0:0:1:61:0:2:0:9:10
to play 61

1.XG Roller++Bar/18eq: -0.483
Player:
Opponent:
39.11% (G:8.14% B:0.30%)
60.89% (G:22.30% B:1.85%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/24 8/2* eq: -0.586 (-0.103)
Player:
Opponent:
37.34% (G:7.88% B:0.28%)
62.66% (G:25.23% B:2.93%)
3.4-plyBar/24 20/14eq: -0.514 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:
37.56% (G:7.83% B:0.32%)
62.44% (G:22.09% B:1.95%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

Here is another unforced mental error.  I played Bar/24, 8/2*.

The best play is the rather obvious Bar/18.

My dumbass play was just me panicking.  I didn't want to give John his full roll when there was a good chance he would either point on my head or hit two.  But what is the alternative?

My play is just too ass ugly to be viable.  Three men on the ace point is a big no-no.  That alone should really be the end of the story.  On top of that, I am hitting inside on a point I don't want (the duece), and with the wrong man.  I abandon the 8 point, which is bad.  Moreover, my 6 point needs unstacking, and my play leaves the 6 still stacked.

Looking back at this, what can I say except if I could refrain from making such obviously stupid plays (counting the previous problem as well) I could make an instant big jump in PR.

***********

Later in the same game.  I am on roll.  Cube action?

is JQ

score: 2
pip: 99
                         
9 point match
                          pip: 113
score: 0

is Bill
XGID=--BACBC--a--bB---c-cBabba-:0:0:1:00:0:2:0:9:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 57.78% (G:17.54% B:0.26%) 57.91% (G:17.74% B:0.30%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 42.22% (G:6.43% B:0.16%) 42.09% (G:6.44% B:0.17%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.261 +0.561
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.292 (-0.050)
     Double/Take:+0.342
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.658)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I missed a double here.  To be honest, I think I quickly rolled and didn't even consider doubling.  That said, I am not sure I would have doubled even if I did think about it.

I am down in the race but shooting at a blot with a 4.5 point board.  41, 43, 46 all hit and cover.  The other hits put John under tremendous pressure to hit back from the bar, else he is basically screwed.

Another point is the scoreboard.  I trail by two points which always seems to swing things .05 or so in favor of the doubler.  ie - you can double a bit earlier.

Also important, John I am anchored and John has two inner board blots.  In the variations where I hit, and JQ hits back, he is still in jeopardy due to those inner board blots.  He could easily lose or even get gammoned from there.

Another important point is that John still has some work to do even when I miss.  A decent amount of the time he won't be able to safety his blot (nor hit and cover) so there are some repeaters in the mix.  Finally, even if does get to safety I am anchored on his 5 point with him having to bring the midpoint home.  So he is not out of the woods for a while yet.

***********

Later in the same game.  I hit a shot and John entered with an ace.  I doubled and then popped this loser 31.  How to play it?

is JQ

score: 2
pip: 84
                         
9 point match
                          pip: 91
score: 0

is Bill
XGID=-aBCBBC---A-A----b-dAbbbb-:1:-1:1:31:0:2:0:9:10
to play 31

1.XG Roller++12/9 10/9eq: -0.041
Player:
Opponent:
52.32% (G:4.37% B:0.12%)
47.68% (G:2.72% B:0.03%)
2.XG Roller++10/6eq: -0.068 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:
51.64% (G:5.17% B:0.16%)
48.36% (G:7.71% B:0.13%)
3.4-ply6/2eq: -0.118 (-0.077)
Player:
Opponent:
51.99% (G:4.86% B:0.16%)
48.01% (G:13.20% B:0.35%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I played 10/6.  My logic was I wanted to keep some outfield control in case John popped a six.    A small error.

The computer likes tidying up with 12/9, 10/9. 

Perhaps the outfield control is an illusion.  65 hits and 64 and 62 leave me a shot.  But 61 and 63 he pops out and hits me!!  That's the illusion part.

************

Still later in the same game.  42 to play.

is JQ

score: 2
pip: 99
                         
9 point match
                          pip: 80
score: 0

is Bill
XGID=aaBCBBDA----------Ae-bbbb-:1:-1:1:42:0:2:0:9:10
to play 42

1.XG Roller++7/5 6/2eq: +1.165
Player:
Opponent:
93.23% (G:28.07% B:0.70%)
6.77% (G:0.19% B:0.00%)
2.XG Roller++7/1* eq: +1.124 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent:
89.06% (G:33.73% B:0.83%)
10.94% (G:1.53% B:0.03%)
3.4-ply18/14 7/5eq: +1.141 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:
92.61% (G:27.36% B:0.64%)
7.39% (G:0.28% B:0.01%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I played 7/1*.  This is too risky.  While the parlay he hits me, then anchors before I do, and then escapes is fairly small, apparently there is no need to press this hard.  Another play, 6/2, 3/1* (not shown) is about the same equity.  This risks even more but locks the game up immediately when JQ dances.

Best is 7/5, 6/2.  This is a play I frankly didn't consider.  I suppose the most common variation is JQ dances and then I get a free shot and pointing on him naturally.  Even if he does anchor I could still win a gammon.

This seems to be a case of "make the DMP play."  Bringing the builders in safely wins the most and also scores a decent amount of gammons.

***********

Later in the same game.  Now I am in the bearoff phase.  42 to play.

is JQ

score: 2
pip: 100
                         
9 point match
                          pip: 56
score: 0

is Bill
XGID=bBBCBCC------------e-bbbb-:1:-1:1:42:0:2:0:9:10
to play 42

1.XG Roller++6/Offeq: +1.427
Player:
Opponent:
96.31% (G:44.39% B:1.29%)
3.69% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.XG Roller++6/4 5/1eq: +1.374 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:
97.07% (G:38.48% B:0.86%)
2.93% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.4-ply6/2 5/3eq: +1.343 (-0.085)
Player:
Opponent:
97.58% (G:34.91% B:0.63%)
2.42% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

This is a techincal play.  This is a rare case where the DMP play is wrong.

Correct is to peel a man with 6/off.  This traded .7% losses for 6% percent extra gammons, a great deal.

The open 5 point is an extra incentive for the aggressive play, as I have life after death even if I get hit later on.

**************

However, look at this variation.  I gave Quinn a perfect board.  42 to play.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 98
                         
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
                          pip: 56
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=bBBCBCC------------cbbbbb-:1:-1:1:42:0:0:3:0:10
to play 42

1.XG Roller++6/Offeq: +1.263
Player:
Opponent:
93.29% (G:40.98% B:1.14%)
6.71% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.XG Roller++6/4 5/1eq: +1.255 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
95.35% (G:35.37% B:0.78%)
4.65% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.XG Roller++6/2 5/3eq: +1.244 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
96.22% (G:32.48% B:0.63%)
3.78% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02

Here it still right to go greedy with 6/off, although the decision is very close.

Looks like an extra checker is worth about 5% gammons, while the hit jeopardy is about 2%.  Something to keep in mind, as this type of decision seems to crop up all the time.

**********

One last blunder from this game.  Still in the bearoff phase.  21 to play.

is JQ

score: 2
pip: 100
                         
9 point match
                          pip: 41
score: 0

is Bill
XGID=bDCCCB-------------e-bbbb-:1:-1:1:21:0:2:0:9:10
to play 21

1.XG Roller+2/Off 1/Offeq: +1.431
Player:
Opponent:
97.16% (G:43.09% B:1.06%)
2.84% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.XG Roller+4/3 2/Offeq: +1.347 (-0.083)
Player:
Opponent:
98.50% (G:33.47% B:0.54%)
1.50% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.3-ply4/2 1/Offeq: +1.346 (-0.084)
Player:
Opponent:
98.18% (G:34.19% B:0.45%)
1.82% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2


In light of the previous problem this one is now easy.  Checkers off, with 2/off, 1/off is clearly the right play. 

The wimply play wins more but at the cost of giving up those juicy gammons.  Which is exactly what I did.  I played the supersafe 4/3, 2/off.


That's enough for one day!!  Bill

1 comment:

  1. Good positions, Bill! With your courage in analyzing your own errors, I'm sure you'll improve quickly.

    The second position is the one I find most interesting. I'd be curious how sensitive the decision is to the number of pips in your roll and the state of Black's board. It looks like a rule of thumb might be that if the race is a money take and the shot equity is this low then you should run both checkers.

    By the way, don't let Stick intimidate you. It's not so rare for the DMP play to be wrong.

    ReplyDelete