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May 14, 2015

Karen Davis

Below are selected error from a match against Karen Davis in Cleveland.


************

1) I lead 7 away 9 away and am on roll.  Cube action?


is Karen Davis

score: 0
pip: 148
9 point match
pip: 118
score: 2

is Bill
XGID=a-B-BCBbB---cC---b-cb--bA-:0:0:1:00:2:0:0:9:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 70.56% (G:31.01% B:0.41%) 70.41% (G:30.90% B:0.45%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 29.44% (G:5.22% B:0.16%) 29.59% (G:5.30% B:0.15%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.679 +1.352
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.867 (-0.133)
     Double/Take:+1.034 (+0.034)
xg Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I misjudged this one.  I was thinking this was No double.  I figured I need to escape before I am threatening anything.  But the position is deceptive.  The 70/30 wins makes it look a holding game but being on the bar against a 4 point board spells gammons.  As you can see, Karen gets gammoned 30% of the time.

If Karen dances for a while, which could happen, this is really bad.  But most likely Karen comes in after a turn or two but her checker is loose back in my board.  I hit loose and she either performs or gets gammoned.  This is the problem, and why is a drop already.

*************

2) I lead 5 away 9 away.  21 to play.

is Karen Davis

score: 0
pip: 139
9 point match
pip: 161
score: 4

is Bill
XGID=-a----E-E---bBb--bce-B-A--:0:0:1:21:4:0:0:9:10
to play 21

1.XG Roller++23/21 6/5eq: -0.736
Player:
Opponent:
33.75% (G:6.02% B:0.19%)
66.25% (G:13.28% B:0.35%)
2.XG Roller++8/5eq: -0.818 (-0.082)
Player:
Opponent:
33.40% (G:6.46% B:0.21%)
66.60% (G:16.47% B:0.52%)
3.XG Roller++8/7 6/4eq: -0.833 (-0.098)
Player:
Opponent:
34.35% (G:6.58% B:0.23%)
65.65% (G:18.82% B:0.66%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

What an ugly position.  I was tempted to try the real big 6/5, 6/4 or 8/7, 6/4 but decided on 8/5 instead.

I was thinking down in the race I should stay back, and if I get hit I might form a second anchor in her home board.

The computer recommends 23/21, 6/5.  I am so brittle I don't have spares anywhere.  Probably I need this back man to pop out next time just so I can hold the position (especially the midpoint).  Karen only has a one-point board so this game isn't over no matter what happens.


***************

3) later in the same game.  I own the cube.  54 to play.
is Karen Davis

score: 0
pip: 124
9 point match
pip: 144
score: 4

is Bill
XGID=-a--BBC-D--A--b--cbebB-A--:1:1:1:54:4:0:0:9:10
to play 54

1.XG Roller++8/4 6/1* eq: -0.223
Player:
Opponent:
40.09% (G:8.83% B:0.16%)
59.91% (G:12.98% B:0.53%)
2.XG Roller++11/6 8/4eq: -0.288 (-0.065)
Player:
Opponent:
35.37% (G:6.42% B:0.14%)
64.63% (G:8.74% B:0.32%)
3.3-ply11/7 6/1* eq: -0.262 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:
39.63% (G:8.47% B:0.21%)
60.37% (G:15.27% B:0.56%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I held tight with 11/6, 8/4.  The problem with this play is it gives Karen a free chance to roll an escaping six.  A good variation for me is Karen doesn't get out and then I hit loose next time...

So let's just hit now.  8/4, 6/1*.  My position is pretty desperate so I should just go for it now.

**************

4) I lead 5 away 7 away and am on roll.  Cube action?

is Karen Davis

score: 2
pip: 135
9 point match
pip: 133
score: 4

is Bill
XGID=a-aBbBBBC-A----A--Abcc-cA-:1:1:1:00:4:2:0:9:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 79.49% (G:21.04% B:0.91%) 79.74% (G:21.26% B:1.05%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 20.51% (G:3.78% B:0.10%) 20.26% (G:3.80% B:0.11%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.785 +1.298
Cubeful Equities
     No redouble:+0.947 (-0.053)
xg Redouble/Take:+1.017 (+0.017)
     Redouble/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

In my opinion this is a difficult doubling window to find.  Karen has a lowish takepoint at this score - 14% according to my chart.  At the same time redoubling cripples my gammons (they are almost worthless).  So my conclusion is to look for a double out rather than a double in.

Thus the question is, is this a drop or not?  As I wrote above my mindset was never cube ... I am playing for the gammon and if thinks go bad I can try to double out much later.  That said, I don't understand why this is a pass if Karen's win chances are 21%.  Didn't I just say the takepoint was 14%??

************

5) DMP.  62 to play.  slot or not?

is Karen Davis

score: 8
pip: 159
9 point match
pip: 88
score: 8

is Bill
XGID=-c-BBCBBCA--b----cabbb----:0:0:1:62:8:8:0:9:10
to play 62

1.XG Roller++9/3 8/6eq: +0.550
Player:
Opponent:
77.52% (G:35.85% B:3.69%)
22.48% (G:0.84% B:0.04%)
2.XG Roller++9/7 8/2eq: +0.518 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:
75.91% (G:35.04% B:3.94%)
24.09% (G:1.80% B:0.08%)
3.3-ply8/2 5/3eq: +0.517 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:
75.87% (G:34.59% B:3.77%)
24.13% (G:1.79% B:0.06%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I went for it with 9/7, 8/6.  Getting hit is bad, but the coffin isn't quite nailed shut yet, and I have a six prime for the time being, so I could still win.

On the other hand, Karen would be jumping for joy if she hits.  Maybe that should be my gauge?  Too much risk for too little gain I suppose.  The stingy 9/3, 8/6 is a tad better per the computer. 


May 1, 2015

Rockwell Rd 2

Below are selected errors from my second round match against David Rockwell from Cleveland.


1)  score is 7 away 7 away and I have 54 to play.


is David Rockwell

score: 4
pip: 139
11 point match
pip: 135
score: 4

is Bill
XGID=---a-aEBC---bCB--cbe--a---:0:0:1:54:4:4:0:11:10
to play 54

1.XG Roller++14/9 13/9eq: +0.612
Player:
Opponent:
66.15% (G:11.02% B:0.49%)
33.85% (G:5.79% B:0.18%)
2.XG Roller++8/3* 7/3eq: +0.465 (-0.147)
Player:
Opponent:
61.91% (G:14.17% B:0.54%)
38.09% (G:6.70% B:0.23%)
3.XG Roller++13/8 6/2eq: +0.402 (-0.210)
Player:
Opponent:
62.06% (G:6.57% B:0.17%)
37.94% (G:4.21% B:0.09%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

This one I don't understand.

I made the quiet play. 13/8, 6/2. Up in the race, race. Sit tight and hope for a better roll next time.

The computer likes 14/9, 13/9. Probably what's going on is this position doesn't age well. I am stacked and stripped after my play while Rockwwell rates to improve. Better to do something constructive (disengage my backmost point while making a new point) while David only has a one point board.


**************


2) Score is 6 away 5 away and David doubles. Take or Drop?

is David Rockwell

score: 6
pip: 127
11 point match
pip: 166
score: 5

is Bill
XGID=-a---BCAC---eC---a-bAbbbB-:0:0:-1:00:5:6:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 62.73% (G:30.82% B:4.11%) 63.01% (G:30.97% B:4.19%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 37.27% (G:7.03% B:0.30%) 36.99% (G:6.99% B:0.32%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.521 +1.118
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.650 (-0.044)
xg Double/Take:+0.695
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.305)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

This position looks really really scary.  sixes, threes, eights all hit.  Lots of gammon potential.  I dropped.

 According to the computer this is only a small double.  Looking at the positives:

  • I am anchored
  • I am not on the bar yet
  • I have a decent offense already assembled (including the made 5 point)
  • While I get gammoned a lot, there are lots of ways to win this game too

Something Neilkaz wrote today on the forums applies here, "Gammonphobia combined with Blotphobia strikes again."

 **************

3) I trail 6 away 4 away and have 21 to play.

is David Rockwell

score: 7
pip: 108
11 point match
pip: 107
score: 5

is Bill
XGID=-CABBaC-----bB---bbbc-Bba-:0:0:1:21:5:7:0:11:10
to play 21

1.XG Roller++6/5* 5/3eq: -0.518
Player:
Opponent:
37.10% (G:8.52% B:0.09%)
62.90% (G:14.91% B:0.50%)
2.XG Roller++4/3 4/2eq: -0.762 (-0.244)
Player:
Opponent:
31.38% (G:3.36% B:0.03%)
68.62% (G:10.26% B:0.27%)
3.2-ply6/4 3/2eq: -0.701 (-0.183)
Player:
Opponent:
31.95% (G:4.79% B:0.03%)
68.05% (G:11.40% B:0.20%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

This one is embarassing.  I moved 4/3, 4/2.  I must have figures I had racing chances so my strategy was to just sit tight and jump out later with a good roll.

However, my only asset in this position is my temporarily better board.  I need to put it to use with an immediate hit.  6/5*/3 is represents my best chance to win.   I hope to scramble around the board while David dances for a while.  A bit of a long shot, but possible.  My play just prepares to die on the 3 point - in fact I dropped just two rolls later.  Hopeless.

**********

4) I trail 6 away 3 away.  65 to play.


is David Rockwell

score: 8
pip: 133
11 point match
pip: 114
score: 5

is Bill
XGID=--ABbCBBB---bB---bcbb-bA--:0:0:1:65:5:8:0:11:10
to play 65

1.XG Roller++7/2 7/1eq: -0.407
Player:
Opponent:
35.01% (G:8.19% B:0.15%)
64.99% (G:11.66% B:0.45%)
2.XG Roller++8/3 8/2eq: -0.433 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
34.69% (G:7.48% B:0.14%)
65.31% (G:10.69% B:0.39%)
3.XG Roller++13/8 13/7eq: -0.491 (-0.084)
Player:
Opponent:
32.78% (G:7.63% B:0.17%)
67.22% (G:7.83% B:0.25%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I kept the four point block with 13/7, 13/8.

Apparently I need the connectivity with my back man, and to keep David honest in the outfield.  Thus, 7/2,7/1 is the play.

My play just gives David too much of a free hand to do what he wants next time.  Big numbers escape his anchor from behind my four prime while smaller numbers David simply plays off the midpoint to contain my back runner.