Pittsburgh (Roberto)

I was fortunate to have three matches recorded from Pittsburgh Open last weekend. Below are slected errors from one of those matches, against Roberto.

******

First, score is 9 away 9 away and I am being recubed. Take or Drop?

is Roberto score: 0 pip: 128

9 point match

pip: 130 score: 0 is Bill

XGID=--a-C-DaBC--cB----bbbb-b-A:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:0:9:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	70.91% (G:27.78% B:0.46%)	71.32% (G:27.38% B:0.49%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	29.09% (G:5.99% B:0.27%)	28.68% (G:5.90% B:0.26%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.655	+1.319
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.888 (-0.112)
Redouble/Take:	+1.098 (+0.098)
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2Roberto

I took and it turns out to be a pretty good sized pass.

Let's look at the basics.  I am down a bit in the race, outboarded and on the bar against a four point board.  His 'threat' is simply that I dance a couple rolls, or I come in and he sucessfully attacks me or simply rolls home clean.  There are some gammons in the mix too.

On the positive side, Roberto still has 1.5 men back so he still has escape work to do.  My offensive strucure is decent, so if I come in right away I may be able to counterattack or counterprime.  Also, of his ten in the zone, 8 are tied to made points and the other 2 are not diversified to attack.

PRAT would indicate a pass - after all I am behind in the race, have the worse position (outboarded) and I am on the bar.  So I am behind on all phases of the game.  Yet due to the above, I have reasonable winning chances.  The kicker seems to be the gammons.  I simply get G-balled too often to justify a take.

*************

Later in the same game. 22, a great shot. How to play it?

is Roberto score: 0 pip: 108

9 point match

pip: 138 score: 0 is Bill

XGID=-a-AC-D-BA--bB----bcbc-bB-:2:1:1:22:0:0:0:9:10

to play 22

1.	XG Roller++	24/22(2) 13/11(2)	eq: -0.424
	Player: Opponent: 30.52% (G:4.38% B:0.12%) 69.48% (G:20.79% B:0.57%)
2.	XG Roller++	24/22(2) 9/7 3/1*	eq: -0.486 (-0.062)
	Player: Opponent: 28.22% (G:3.81% B:0.08%) 71.78% (G:20.77% B:0.52%)
3.	3-ply	24/22(2) 6/4 3/1*	eq: -0.512 (-0.088)
	Player: Opponent: 26.86% (G:3.31% B:0.10%) 73.14% (G:19.63% B:0.59%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

24/22 is for sure, what about the other two?

I went with 9/7, 3/1* trying to slow him down by putting him on the bar.

This looks like the wrong idea.  For starters I don't really want the ace point, which never be part of a prime with the 8-point.

Also, compared to the superior play, 13/11(2) my play leaves more shots.  The computer play leaves any 2 plus 44 for 13 hitters.  With my play, any ace hits from the bar as well as 52 and 43 for 15 hitters.

So my play takes more risk for less upside.  The computer play, when missed, leaves me with a better more compact structure which can improve easier - in short more upside.

************

Things have turned my way.  I am on roll, holding a 4 cube, score is 9 away 9 away.  Cube action?

is Roberto score: 0 pip: 59

9 point match

pip: 160 score: 0 is Bill

XGID=a--BBBBA-----A--A--cAbBdA-:2:1:1:00:0:0:0:9:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller+	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	75.98% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)	74.47% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	24.02% (G:10.15% B:0.87%)	25.53% (G:11.32% B:1.19%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.419	+0.936
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.869 (-0.045)
Redouble/Take:	+0.914
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.086)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I wasn't sure and so held back.  Classic mistake per Wollsey's law.  When unsure if opponent has a take or drop, then double as he might make a mistake!  Simple.

I wanted to make the 5-prime first, as Roberto has 5 men off, which obviously gives him a certain reservoir of counterplay.  I still have many men back (six on his side of the board still) so it seems he will have many many rolls to fight with into the future.

But, that is only part of the story.  First, I am threatening to make a 5-prime with any six with half the rolls (any six plus 55).  This is a real threat.  Besides this, are some 'hidden' threats.  Once I make the 5-prime there is a decent chance that Roberto will enter and crack, allowing me to pick up a second checker and basically put the game away.  This is the powerful 'threat beneath the surface' that I knew was there but didn't fully appreciate.

************

Fortunately for me I didn't double since I made the 5-prime and Roberto immediately jumped it with 26 from the bar!!  OK, so how do I play this lemon 31 roll?

is Roberto score: 0 pip: 51

9 point match

pip: 154 score: 0 is Bill

XGID=---BBBBBa-------A--cAbBdA-:2:1:1:31:0:0:0:9:10

to play 31

1.	XG Roller++	20/16	eq: +0.078
	Player: Opponent: 53.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 46.08% (G:31.95% B:1.16%)
2.	XG Roller++	20/17 16/15	eq: +0.064 (-0.014)
	Player: Opponent: 53.31% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 46.69% (G:33.07% B:2.24%)
3.	XG Roller++	20/17 7/6	eq: -0.025 (-0.103)
	Player: Opponent: 50.59% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 49.41% (G:35.59% B:2.72%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I went for maximum coverage with 20/17, 7/6.  A large mistake.

A superior execution of my idea would have been 20/17, 16/15.  I am guessing there are the same number of 7's and 8's so this play keeps maximum defensive coverage while holding hte strength of my position - the 5-prime.

The best play was to button up with 20/16.  The main viture of this play is that it gets gammoned the least often.  Most likely Roberto comes around the board with his lone man and I get a single or double direct shot anyway.  So perhaps the put'em where you want em is overkill and just too risky?  Not sure really.

*************

Here is one last bonehead play.  I lead 4 away post-Crawford and have boxes to play.

is Roberto score: 5 pip: 165

9 point match

pip: 114 score: 8 is Bill

XGID=aB-B-dDBA-B-----bb-bBbb---:1:1:1:66:8:5:0:9:10

to play 66

1.	XG Roller++	20/8(2)	eq: +0.655
	Player: Opponent: 84.49% (G:43.00% B:0.23%) 15.51% (G:1.66% B:0.06%)
2.	XG Roller++	20/14(2) 10/4(2)	eq: +0.526 (-0.129)
	Player: Opponent: 79.18% (G:47.80% B:0.45%) 20.82% (G:2.74% B:0.11%)
3.	3-ply	20/8 10/4(2)	eq: +0.544 (-0.111)
	Player: Opponent: 79.73% (G:50.55% B:0.81%) 20.27% (G:2.42% B:0.07%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I moved 20/14(2), 10/4(2).  This play has the merit of flushing him forward, by taking away the four point and also wins more gammons.  Of course, gammons are worthless here.

Roberto has a strong offense so I really don't want to get hit.  Why give him the 53 and 26 hitting jokers if I don't have to?

Best is simply 20/8(2) which moves a lot of freight while leaving no shots.  I should just try to roll home clean and win the match.