Something basic I learned in Cleveland!!

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 4

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver

pip: 4 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=--B--------------------b--:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	79.94% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)	79.94% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	20.06% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)	20.06% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.599	+1.198
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.599 (-0.352)
Redouble/Take:	+0.951
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.049)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02

We all know this is a double and a take.

But why? Yellow (the weaker side) only wins 20%. Why take? Because of the recube.

OK, that makes some sense. But how do you know? How do you measure that?

This is what I learned in Cleveland. Last roll position.

Win chances = [(# rolls opponent misses) x (# rolls you hit)] / 1296.

You need 25% of 324 to take.

(10) * (26) = 260 implies drop.

What gives? OK, so this is the trick. The recube doubles your equity to the extent you are a favorite.

So, when we get to roll we have 26 rolls to get off, or 8 more than half of 18. We add the 8 rolls into the calculation.

It's as if we get off 34 times (rather than 26) since we win those games with a recube.

So, the corrected calculation is:
(10) * (26 + 8) = 340 or take.
We get double the value on those wins.
Pretty neat. Thanks Dima. dfd