is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 4 | ||||||||||||||||

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver | ||||||||||||||||

pip: 4 score: 0 is Player 1 | ||||||||||||||||

XGID=--B--------------------b--:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | ||||||||||||||||

on roll, cube action? |

Analyzed in XG Roller++ | No redouble | Redouble/Take |

Player Winning Chances: | 79.94% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | 79.94% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) |

Opponent Winning Chances: | 20.06% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | 20.06% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) |

Cubeless Equities | +0.599 | +1.198 |

Cubeful Equities | ||

No redouble: | +0.599 (-0.352) | |

Redouble/Take: | +0.951 | |

Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.049) | |

Best Cube action: Redouble / Take |

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02

We all know this is a double and a take.

But why? Yellow (the weaker side) only wins 20%. Why take? Because of the recube.

OK, that makes some sense. But how do you know? How do you measure that?

This is what I learned in Cleveland. Last roll position.

Win chances = [(# rolls opponent misses) x (# rolls you hit)] / 1296.

You need 25% of 324 to take.

(10) * (26) = 260 implies drop.

What gives? OK, so this is the trick. The recube doubles your equity to the extent you are a favorite.

So, when we get to roll we have 26 rolls to get off, or 8 more than half of 18. We add the 8 rolls into the calculation.

It's as if we get off 34 times (rather than 26) since we win those games with a recube.

So, the corrected calculation is:

(10) * (26 + 8) = 340 or take.

We get double the value on those wins.

Pretty neat. Thanks Dima. dfd

The recube equity calculation shortcut is in _Boot Camp_, in the discussion of pos. 3-7.

ReplyDelete