| is Player 2 |
| Unlimited Game |
| pip: 4 |
is Player 1
|on roll, cube action?|
|Analyzed in XG Roller++||No redouble||Redouble/Take|
|Player Winning Chances:||79.94% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)||79.94% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)|
|Opponent Winning Chances:||20.06% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)||20.06% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)|
|No redouble:||+0.599 (-0.352)|
|Best Cube action: Redouble / Take|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02
We all know this is a double and a take.
But why? Yellow (the weaker side) only wins 20%. Why take? Because of the recube.
OK, that makes some sense. But how do you know? How do you measure that?
This is what I learned in Cleveland. Last roll position.
Win chances = [(# rolls opponent misses) x (# rolls you hit)] / 1296.
You need 25% of 324 to take.
(10) * (26) = 260 implies drop.
What gives? OK, so this is the trick. The recube doubles your equity to the extent you are a favorite.
So, when we get to roll we have 26 rolls to get off, or 8 more than half of 18. We add the 8 rolls into the calculation.
It's as if we get off 34 times (rather than 26) since we win those games with a recube.
So, the corrected calculation is:
(10) * (26 + 8) = 340 or take.
We get double the value on those wins.
Pretty neat. Thanks Dima. dfd