Take Process

My recent post on the Doubling process has proved popular. It has quickly jumped to my #2 most read entry. Here is the follow up on the Take process.

Note the below does not reflect my current process. Rather, this is how top players supposedly approach a take decision.


For Money:


Adjusted Take Point = (22%) + (Opponent's Net Gammons * 1/2)


For Match: **

Adjusted Take Point = (your Take Point at this score) + [ (Opponent's net Gammons) * (opponent's gammon value at this score)]


** technically it would be (your opponent's gammons * his gammon value - your gammons * your gammon value).  As your gammons are typically small I don't see this extra mental effort as worth the accuracy.

Here are an example.

Cube action? As Player 2 (black) how did you decide on take or pass?

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 163

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver

pip: 141 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=aaa--CB-D-A-cD---c-dA--b--:0:0:1:D:0:0:3:0:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	74.18% (G:22.27% B:1.33%)	74.51% (G:23.04% B:1.34%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	25.82% (G:4.78% B:0.14%)	25.49% (G:4.79% B:0.13%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.670	+1.370
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.936 (-0.064)
Double/Take:	+1.187 (+0.187)
Double/Pass:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Using the method, you estimate your opponent's gammons and your gammons,  If you were able to correctly guess 22% for opponent and 5% for you then the net gammon loss is 17.5%.  Add half of this to 22% to get an adjusted takepoint of 29.5%.  Now you look at the position as Black and reckon, do I win this game more or less than 29.5%.  If yes, Take,  If no, Drop.

I have to admit that I typically don't do this as estimating gammons is tough.  It's also hard to then look at the position and figure out what 29.5% looks like.  But hey kids, if you want to play like the pro's this is the way to go!

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Here is another example, showing match play considerations.

This is the position after 43 Split, 33 Attack and Dance. You trail 5 away 4 away and are being doubled?
Take or Drop?

is Player 2 score: 3 pip: 165

7 point match

pip: 155 score: 2 is Player 1

XGID=aa-B-BC-A---dE-a-c-e----B-:0:0:1:00:2:3:0:7:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	67.40% (G:29.03% B:1.67%)	67.31% (G:29.81% B:1.67%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	32.60% (G:6.86% B:0.30%)	32.69% (G:7.02% B:0.32%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.558	+1.352
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.858 (-0.142)
Double/Take:	+1.085 (+0.085)
Double/Pass:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

If you knew this was a close take for money than you might reason that an elevated gammon value makes this dangerous and is probably a pass.  Likely how I would approach such a position.

Using the take process:

Estimate 29% gammons for opponent and 7% gammons for you or 22% net gammons lost.
Approximate opponent's gammon value as .80
and approximate your takepoint at 5 away 4 away as 24.5%

Recall: adj TP = (TP at this score) + (Net gammons lost * Opponent's gammon value)

Adj TP = 24.5 + (22 * .8) or about 42%

Then the question is: Do you win this position 42% of the time?
If yes, Take.
If no, Drop.

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If you like this approach, let me recommend you create something like the below in Excel.  Using the above approach, you can estimate whether position is a take or drop at various scores.  In other words, what impact does the match score have on this position compared to a money game?

Numbers in green and red refer to the size of the take or pass.