Mochy

Below are selected errors from my match against Mochy from Chicago Open.

1. 54 to play.

is Mochy score: 0 pip: 128

9 point match

pip: 152 score: 0 is Bill Calton

XGID=-----CC-Cb--bD---cbdAb-A--:1:1:1:54:0:0:0:9:10

to play 54

1.	XG Roller+	13/4	eq: -0.430
	Player: Opponent: 31.35% (G:7.70% B:0.29%) 68.65% (G:23.24% B:0.77%)
2.	XG Roller+	20/11	eq: -0.543 (-0.113)
	Player: Opponent: 25.61% (G:3.60% B:0.11%) 74.39% (G:17.39% B:0.29%)
3.	4-ply	6/1 5/1	eq: -0.483 (-0.053)
	Player: Opponent: 28.96% (G:5.89% B:0.10%) 71.04% (G:21.28% B:0.55%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I am feeling the heat as Mochy has rolled great and I am behind the 8 ball, holding the cube and not rolling the 3 I was hoping for.


Best was simply 13/4. I need to stand my ground. While I am likely to get pointed on, Mochy can't do everything next roll and I can hope to anchor somehwere.

I decided to run with 20/11. I was hoping to at least escape one man. I think the main problem with my play is I am diversifying his rolls. Hard to find a bad roll after this move actaully.

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2. 61 from the air.

is Mochy score: 0 pip: 69

9 point match

pip: 120 score: 0 is Bill Calton

XGID=----BCDBAb---B-----a-ccdbA:1:1:1:61:0:0:0:9:10

to play 61

1.	XG Roller++	Bar/19* 8/7	eq: +0.926
	Player: Opponent: 73.85% (G:22.49% B:0.95%) 26.15% (G:3.60% B:0.04%)
2.	XG Roller++	Bar/19* 5/4	eq: +0.911 (-0.015)
	Player: Opponent: 74.94% (G:24.08% B:1.11%) 25.06% (G:4.66% B:0.04%)
3.	XG Roller++	Bar/19* 19/18	eq: +0.850 (-0.076)
	Player: Opponent: 72.80% (G:21.87% B:0.99%) 27.20% (G:5.58% B:0.05%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

What a great shot by me.

Leaving the blot versus leaving the blot is actually fairly close.  XG prefers lifting it with Bar/19*, 8/7.  I am the verge of a recube here and leaving no blots is apparently the prudent thing to do.

I carelessly played Bar/19*/18 instead of the reasonable Bar/19*, 5/4.  This gives an extra shot (33 from the bar) for no reason.  I was immedaitely punished by this oversight as Mochy drilled me with 33 next shake.  This is an example of how good players can be "lucky" more often than their opponents through superior play.  I gave Mochy an extra chance to roll a joker, and he got it.  If the position was reversed, Mochy would never make this play and I would never have the chance to pop the same joker.

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3.  41 to play

is Mochy score: 2 pip: 133

9 point match

pip: 158 score: 0 is Bill Calton

XGID=----AADbC---cD---bbd---bAA:0:0:1:41:0:2:0:9:10

to play 41

1.	XG Roller++	Bar/21 6/5	eq: -0.433
	Player: Opponent: 39.07% (G:8.65% B:0.33%) 60.93% (G:19.54% B:0.57%)
2.	XG Roller++	Bar/24 8/4	eq: -0.476 (-0.043)
	Player: Opponent: 36.95% (G:8.64% B:0.28%) 63.05% (G:16.37% B:0.80%)
3.	4-ply	Bar/21 5/4	eq: -0.491 (-0.058)
	Player: Opponent: 37.33% (G:7.61% B:0.26%) 62.67% (G:19.39% B:0.54%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

A tough play.  Since Mochy has the 2 point made, I thought I could make the ace point anchor and cut back on the gammons.  I won't get cubed for a while because of the large gap from 5 to 3 of unmade points.

The computer prefers challenging immediately with Bar/21, 6/5.  This seems like the "DMP" play as I strive for the best anchor while making the best home board at the same time.  The only issue is the gammons lose.  Hard to judge over the board, but as the computer shows the bold play wins 2% more at the cost of getting gammoned 3% more often.  When in doubt, make the DMP play applies here.

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4. 53 to play

is Mochy score: 2 pip: 130

9 point match

pip: 150 score: 0 is Bill Calton

XGID=--a-BADbB-A--C---bce---bB-:0:0:1:53:0:2:0:9:10

to play 53

1.	XG Roller++	10/5 6/3	eq: +0.097
	Player: Opponent: 50.00% (G:16.27% B:0.57%) 50.00% (G:14.51% B:0.81%)
2.	XG Roller++	13/5	eq: +0.018 (-0.079)
	Player: Opponent: 48.35% (G:15.38% B:0.55%) 51.65% (G:14.52% B:0.83%)
3.	4-ply	24/21 10/5	eq: +0.037 (-0.060)
	Player: Opponent: 49.65% (G:14.54% B:0.67%) 50.35% (G:15.69% B:0.42%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I moved 13/5.  My logic was to leave my blot in a spot where I make my opponent pay the most to hit me.

I was surprised to learn the beat play is in fact 10/5, 6/3.  To find this move, I would have needed to pause and consider how my opponent's next rolls play.  The ace duplication looks more powerful than the three duplication.

Leaving the blot on the 3 point, my opponent would probably choose to not hit me with 31 and 21 and perhaps 51 as well.  So not as risky as appears at first blush.

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5. Mochy on roll leading 5 away 9 away.  Cube action?

is Bill Calton score: 0 pip: 151

9 point match

pip: 147 score: 4 is Mochy

XGID=-A-BabC-B---bE--a-cbbbAA--:0:0:-1:00:0:4:0:9:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in 4-ply	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	72.31% (G:32.24% B:1.10%)	72.28% (G:32.26% B:1.14%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	27.69% (G:5.23% B:0.15%)	27.72% (G:5.23% B:0.15%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.714	+1.367
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.815 (-0.137)
Double/Take:	+0.952
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.048)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I correctly took but it wasn't easy for me.  I figured I had a take only because of the lopsided score.  if things go my way I may be able to send a strong early recube to 4.

Turns out this is right.

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6. 32 to play.

is Mochy score: 8 pip: 144

9 point match

pip: 196 score: 2 is Bill Calton

XGID=--B---BAB-bacBa---bfBB--AA:1:-1:1:32:2:8:0:9:10

to play 32

1.	XG Roller++	Bar/22 13/11*	eq: +0.052
	Player: Opponent: 44.05% (G:11.69% B:0.41%) 55.95% (G:20.68% B:0.96%)
2.	XG Roller++	Bar/22 7/5	eq: +0.004 (-0.047)
	Player: Opponent: 42.60% (G:10.50% B:0.33%) 57.40% (G:20.02% B:0.83%)
3.	XG Roller++	Bar/20	eq: -0.026 (-0.078)
	Player: Opponent: 41.37% (G:10.06% B:0.32%) 58.63% (G:19.34% B:0.73%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I was totally cornfused on this one.  I was reluctant to hit and give up the midpoint.  it seems unlikely I will win going forward.  I chose to to simply scoot up to the edge with Bar/20.

As this is Crawford 7 away this one plays out essentially as DMP.  Mochy has 6 men on his six point so I am absolutely no danger of being primed in.  Thus getting up to the edge isn't so important nor is keeping the midpoint.

Even though I am unlikely to win going forward there is no harm in trying.  Bar/22, 13/11*