doublefaris

What follows are selected errors from an online match against DoubleFaris.

1.  I lead 8 away 9 away.  31 to play.  Make the 5 point?

is DoubleFaris score: 0 pip: 151

9 point match

pip: 154 score: 1 is Chutzpah

XGID=-A--B-CbB---cEb--c-e--A-A-:0:0:1:31:1:0:0:9:6

to play 31

1.	XG Roller++	24/21 22/21	eq: -0.174
	Player: Opponent: 44.32% (G:7.24% B:0.14%) 55.68% (G:7.64% B:0.25%)
2.	XG Roller++	8/5 6/5	eq: -0.335 (-0.161)
	Player: Opponent: 41.31% (G:10.50% B:0.24%) 58.69% (G:14.80% B:0.57%)
3.	2-ply	22/21 13/10	eq: -0.358 (-0.185)
	Player: Opponent: 40.48% (G:9.75% B:0.25%) 59.52% (G:14.98% B:0.75%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

When in doubt, make the 5 point.  Or as Lorenzo taught me "I kills peoples for the five point."  This was my philosophy here and I went with 8/5, 6/5.

I was also thinking that  making the best 3 point board was a long term asset which puts pressure on Faris to roll well.  Any future hits will be strong.

This is a clear exception to that rule as the computer greatly prefers 24/21, 22/21.  Let's see if we can figure out why.

• My "best 3 point board" is strong but I do have the ace point blotted which must reduce from this strength at least somewhat.
• I leave an immediate blot on the 8 point.  While it is true getting hit there hardly loses the game it gives Faris extra options.
• The race is close so perhaps I should make an anchor ensuring nothing bad can happen and hope to roll big doubles later on.
• Even if my blot is missed on the 8 point I will then need an immediate 5 to remake it else I will lose great flexibility in playing my men off the stacked midpoint.

2.  Later in the same game.  Faris is on roll.  Cube action?

is DoubleFaris score: 0 pip: 128

9 point match

pip: 138 score: 1 is Chutzpah

XGID=-A--BBBbC---bCa--b-ccAbA--:0:0:-1:00:1:0:0:9:6

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	69.10% (G:29.80% B:0.82%)	69.35% (G:31.42% B:0.89%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	30.90% (G:7.17% B:0.23%)	30.65% (G:8.05% B:0.30%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.611	+1.301
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.812 (-0.188)
Double/Take:	+1.099 (+0.099)
Double/Pass:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Faris doubled and I took.

This is another example of a position where I am underestimating the gammons.  I have a nice offense in place so if I survive the attack I can certainly win. 

Playing around with the position, the real problem I have is the misplaced man on my ace point.  If I move him back where he belongs as a spare on the six point then the position becomes a .80 take - super easy.  Lesson -- examine the entire board and notice all the little details in order to make an informed decision.


3.  I trail 8 away 7 away and have already doubled.  How to play this 31.

is DoubleFaris score: 2 pip: 101

9 point match

pip: 118 score: 1 is Chutzpah

XGID=---cCBBBB---AB--A---baebb-:1:-1:1:31:1:2:0:9:6

to play 31

1.	XG Roller++	16/15 12/9	eq: +0.754
	Player: Opponent: 82.03% (G:16.58% B:0.57%) 17.97% (G:2.94% B:0.01%)
2.	XG Roller++	12/8	eq: +0.742 (-0.011)
	Player: Opponent: 81.24% (G:15.73% B:0.62%) 18.76% (G:1.20% B:0.01%)
3.	XG Roller++	16/12	eq: +0.723 (-0.031)
	Player: Opponent: 80.78% (G:14.81% B:0.55%) 19.22% (G:1.11% B:0.01%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I made the obvious 16/12.  Certainly not bad but technically best is the manly 16/15, 12/9.

Faris is so weak here that I can take a chance to snuff out all counterplay at once.  With a crashed 4.5 board and 3 men behind a 5 prime, Faris would have to roll really well to win going forward.

If he fails to roll a six, most likely I complete the six prime and the game is almost gin.

And if Faris does roll a six, his good fortune could boomarang on him if I scoop up another blot or two on the way around the board.

Lesson -- when you opponent is behind the 8 ball, consider plays which make his best numbers into not so good numbers.  This is the way to pressure the opponent both on the board and mentally, as well as simply to squeeze the most equity out of the position.


4.   I lead 4 away 7 away, have already doubled and have this 21 to play.

is DoubleFaris score: 3 pip: 148

9 point match

pip: 102 score: 5 is Chutzpah

XGID=aAaBBBBAB---dB--A-bcb-b---:1:-1:1:21:5:3:0:9:6

to play 21

1.	XG Roller++	3/1 3/2*	eq: +1.090
	Player: Opponent: 77.67% (G:57.36% B:0.50%) 22.33% (G:5.85% B:0.37%)
2.	XG Roller++	8/7 8/6	eq: +0.796 (-0.293)
	Player: Opponent: 74.84% (G:39.72% B:0.85%) 25.16% (G:5.09% B:0.22%)
3.	XG Roller+	4/2* 2/1	eq: +1.078 (-0.012)
	Player: Opponent: 76.65% (G:59.14% B:0.54%) 23.35% (G:6.63% B:0.42%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I made the priming play 8/7, 8/6.

Best was either of two blitz checker plays, 3/1, 3/2* -or- 4/2*/1

I have seen this theme before where you break an inner board point to conduct the blitz.  I simply failed to consider this play as an option.  Lesson -- You can't make the best play if you don't even see it.  Slow it down clown!


5.  4 away 4 away, I have already doubled and this 42 to play.  Your move?

is DoubleFaris score: 5 pip: 165

9 point match

pip: 122 score: 5 is Chutzpah

XGID=--cBBbB-BC-a-CA----cbbb---:1:-1:1:42:5:5:0:9:6

to play 42

1.	XG Roller++	13/11* 11/7	eq: +0.442
	Player: Opponent: 66.53% (G:24.79% B:1.36%) 33.47% (G:6.58% B:0.24%)
2.	XG Roller++	13/9 13/11*	eq: +0.341 (-0.101)
	Player: Opponent: 64.63% (G:22.79% B:1.11%) 35.37% (G:6.66% B:0.32%)
3.	3-ply	14/8	eq: +0.370 (-0.072)
	Player: Opponent: 68.87% (G:16.32% B:0.67%) 31.13% (G:4.14% B:0.14%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I let the fear get the best of me here.  I played the relatively safer play 13/11, 13/7.

Best was the go for the throat play of 13/11*/7.  This play leaves more immediate return shots but much more upside.  If Faris misses, I am very likely to cover the bar next time, placing a hammer lock on the game.

Even if I am hit,  I leave only one additional man exposed.  Contrast with the other play where if I am hit I have two extra blots floating around.  While it will be difficult for Faris to extricate all his back men from my broken prime, having that extra loosie out there is a definite downside in the event I am hit.

So, the manly play has better upside and less downside, which more than compensates for the additional extra risk of getting hit back on the next shake.