Crawford and Post-Crawford Scores

Continuing the series on 5 point match.  Below notes are from Kit Woolsey's article (http://www.bkgm.com/articles/GOL/Aug99/fivept.htm)

Crawford Scores

2 Away Crawford

1.       Gammon value is 1.0.  Go for the gammon if risky play wins more gammons than extra losses.

a.       (i.e. extra gammons > extra losses)

2.       Leader Wants

a.       Gammon-free game (Race, Holding Game)

b.      Advanced anchor

c.       Think defense first

d.      Opening moves are gammon-save

3.       Trailer Wants

a.       Gammonish positions (Blitz, Prime, Backgame)

b.      Think Offense first

c.       Opening moves are gammon-go

3 Away Crawford: “the worthless gammon”

1.       Essentially the same as DMP since gammon is worthless.  Only the free drop (or ~ 1% MWC is at stake).

2.       But leader should be careful to avoid backgammons

3.       And trailer can take late chances to go for the backgammon.  Example: bearing off and leaving a shot with opponent on the bar could be right

4 Away Crawford: “The Worthless Backgammon”

1.       Strategy is basically the same as Crawford game.

2.       Gammons are of extra value to the trailer (.58), but the trailer shouldn’t go overboard making a risky play to force a gammon win.

3.       Leader is on Gammmon Save but can ignore backgammon risks.

5 Away Crawford

1.       Same as 3 away Crawford.  Gammons don’t particularly help the trailer. 

2.       But backgammons are valuable!  Leader should be careful not to get BG’d

POST-Crawford: Even Away Scores

2 Away Post-Crawford

1.       Trailer should immediately double

2.       Leader should use free drop if he is an underdog (less than 50% to win)

3.       If Trailer wins opening roll, don’t slot!  You can’t realize the upside of this play b/c leader will use free drop)

4.       If trailer jumps out to an early lead (like 31P 62S) he may be too good to double!  Trailer can consider playing on for a gammon.  If trailer is at any time in danger of dropping below 50% win chances, trailer can always double and cash the game.  Otherwise trailer can play on for the Gammon.

4 Away Post-Crawford: Virtual DMP

1.       Leader has free drop available, as per any even away post Crawford score.  Since leader may lose and still have the free-drop available next game, he has the option to take as a slight underdog if he so chooses.

2.       According to Dmitriy Obhukov, leader’s gammonless takepoint is about 35%.  Leader should always take if he wins the opening roll since gammons are low.

3.       Cube strategy same as 2 away post Crawford.

4.       Once cube is turned, gammon-go for trailer; gammon-save for leader.

POST-Crawford: Odd Away Scores

3 Away Post-Crawford: “The Trick”

1.       No free drop for the leader

2.       Leader should take as long as winning chances > gammon losses.

3.       Once cube turned, same as 2 away post-crawford

4.       “the trick.” Trailer may wait to double until he has a very strong (but not gammonish) position.  Leader should take, but may make an error and drop anyway.

5.       On bear-off (no gammons) leader can take very deep, as low as ~5% I believe.

5 Away Post-Crawford

1.       Same as 3 away post-crawford.  No free-drop for the trailer.  Leader should always take. 

2.       Trailer should double immediately, but can wait to try and trick the leader into a bad drop.

Thinking about Replies to Running Rolls

Thinking about replies to Running rolls

Hit if you can.

Better to hit than make a home board point (relevant for 31, 42, 53)

Split is better than two down. 

Point Making Rolls (31, 42, 53, 61)

Always make a point unless you hit

Aces (21, 41, 51)

21.  Slot on 65R; Up on 62R

41. This one is tricky to remember and understand.  I am going to make a rule ‘Always 41$ when opponent runs and you miss’ even though this is a small error on 65R and 63R.

51.  This is also tricky to remember.  I am going to make a rule ‘Always 51S when opponent runs’ even though slot and split are essentially tied in some cases.

Split or Two Down (54, 52, 43, 32)

54. Pretty easy.  Down if you hit; Split If you miss

52.  Down if you hit; Split if you miss.  Exception.  65R-52D. Tough to remember.  Why down?

43. Reverse split on 65R (the generally preferred split).  Hit and Split (obvious) on 62R and 63R.  Normal split on 64R.  This is the hard one.  I am guessing the reason is duplication of opponent’s 54.

32.  Hit and Split is obvious against 63R and 64R.  Normal split against 65R makes sense.  32U on 62R is the hard one.  The Reverse split (duplicating 2’s is also OK).

6X Rolls (65, 64, 63, 62)

65.  Always Run

64. Split with 64 except on 65R.  Then make the 2 point.   Why 65R-64P?  My guess is opponent has no blots so less action this roll.  Might as well make a point so future hit is more potent.

63. Split with 63 except on 62R.  On 62R, 13/10 makes no sense so 63Z wins by default. 

62.  This one is tricky to remember as well.  Split on 64R and 65R.  Slot on 62R and 63R; Probably slot since 13/11 is just another blot.

Doubles

11. “Always play N and you can’t be too wrong.”  24/22, 6/5(2) is slightly better against 62R and 63R though I don’t understand why.  Seems easiest to just always play 8/7(2), 6/5(2).

22. Always N or 13/11(2), 6/4(2).  On 62R, 13/9*, 6/4(2) is fairly obvious.

33. This is probably the most difficult reply roll to play.

Attack 8/5(2), 6/3(2) on 62R and 64R.  Note 64R is one of stick’s rules (Make two inner points If blot on either 11 point)

On 63R, Hit and make a point with no blots – ie 13/10*(2),  6/3(2)

On 65R, the default play is best  24/21(2), 13/10(2)

44.  Always both 24/20(2), 13/9(2) is best though Point or 13/5*(2) is tied on 62R

55. Always Attack (obvious)

66. Always Both (obvious)

Replies to 62R

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 159

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver

pip: 167 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=-a----E-Ca--eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10

on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02

Replies to 62R

Error Key

Tie

Small

Medium

Blunder

Per XG opening Book

< .005

< .02

< .06

> .06

General Notes

Always Hit.  Hit and Split a bit better than hit and down (control all sectors of the board)

Generally split if you miss, to seek contact.

Aces are tough to remember.  Don't slot (b/c of the race?).  Up with 21 and split with 51.  hit and split with 41.

Sixes.  Reverse split with 63; Slot with 62.  Probably not to expose 2nd blot.

11 - 24/22, 6/5(2) is a bit better than N.  Not sure why.

33 - Attack is best to prepare for a future hit.

32 up is best (contact?) but reverse split (duplicating 2's is OK)

Reply Roll

BEST

2nd

3rd

4th

Point Making Rolls

31

H

13/10*/9

P

8/5, 6/5

0.0198

42

X

24/22, 13/9*

D

13/11, 13/9*

0.0105

53

P

8/3, 6/3

61

P

13/7, 8/7

Split or Slot

21

U

24/21

W

24/22, 6/5

0.0255

41

X

13/9*, 24/23

51

S

24/23, 13/8

$

13/8, 6/5

0.026

Split or Two Down

54

D

13/9*, 13/8

52

S

24/22, 13/8

43

Z

24/21, 13/9*

D

13/10, 13/9*

0.0036

32

U

24/22, 24/21

Z

24/21, 13/11

0.0055

duplicating 2's is OK

6-X Rolls

65

R

24/13

S

24/18, 13/8

0.0277

64

S

24/18, 13/9*

63

Z

24/21, 13/7

S

24/18, 13/10

0.016

probably b/c 13/10 makes no sense

62

$

13/5

Z

24/22, 13/7

0.0013

U

24/18, 24/22

0.0071

reason to not expose a second blot?

Doubles

11

e

24/22, 6/5(2)

N

8/7(2), 6/5(2)

0.0076

play for contact

22

?

13/9*, 6/4(2)

33

A

8/5(2), 6/3(2)

B

24/21(2), 13/10(2)

0.0174

44

B

24/20(2), 13/9*(2)

P

13/5*(2)

0.0008

tied!!

55

A

8/3(2), 6/1*(2)

66

B

24/18(2), 13/7(2)