Chutzpah-SixPack

OK.  Time to get the ball rolling by looking at mistakes from my matches.

These are from a match against SixPack.

First game of 7 point match.  Cube Action?

is Chutzpah score: 0 pip: 146

7 point match

pip: 121 score: 0 is SixPack

XGID=--a--BDaC---bE-a-a-cb-bAb-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:7:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	62.88% (G:31.43% B:0.19%)	63.07% (G:32.49% B:0.19%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	37.12% (G:8.69% B:0.51%)	36.93% (G:8.78% B:0.59%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.485	+1.032
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.619 (-0.122)	±0.011 (+0.608..+0.630)
Double/Take:	+0.741	±0.016 (+0.725..+0.758)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.259)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 6 minutes 50 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

He had been Too Good the past couple rolls.  I rolled 2-3 from the bar, coming in and covering the 5-point.  My mindset was that a joker roll would merely save the gammon.  I dropped in a flash.

Still, looking at the position now I don't really understand why it is a take. I could see myself making this error again.

I am outboarded, down in the race, and may be attacked next roll.  I suppose these are the strengths of my position:  I have the 5-point, always big.  No other loose checkers.  My back-guy is relatively deep on the 2-point.  Probably mostimportant are the defects in Sixpack's position.  He does have four loose blots after all.  One hit could turn the game around, and he can't do everything in one roll.  Also the guys on the ace-point aren't the best.

*************
In the next position, I lead 4 away post-crawford.  I have 44 to play.

is SixPack score: 3 pip: 122

7 point match

pip: 154 score: 6 is Chutzpah

XGID=--AB-BBbB-a-bC-----bccbC--:1:1:1:44:6:3:0:7:10

to play 44

1.	XG Roller++	13/5 8/4(2)	eq: -0.785
	Player: Opponent: 30.78% (G:7.59% B:0.22%) 69.22% (G:19.10% B:0.80%)
2.	XG Roller++	13/9(2) 13/5	eq: -0.839 (-0.054)
	Player: Opponent: 23.88% (G:4.02% B:0.12%) 76.12% (G:15.10% B:0.55%)
3.	XG Roller++	13/9(3) 6/2	eq: -0.864 (-0.079)
	Player: Opponent: 23.34% (G:3.88% B:0.13%) 76.66% (G:15.74% B:0.59%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

My mindset was "gammon save."  Therefore, I figured I should get as close to home as possible and went for 13/9(2), 13/5.

And while it is true the gammon losses are fewer, the problem with this play is I basically give up on trying to win.  Making the 4-point is obviously a big improvement.  I establish a 4.5 point board which will be very strong should I hit a shot later.  True enough, I will have to clear the mid-point soon and could get another blot sent back.  But then again, this may not happen.  And even if it does, I still have the 2-point anchor - which while not the greatest still provides some gammon insurance.

In short, I let gammonphobia clould my judgment here.

*********

Later in the same game, I made the same mistake.  51 to play.

is SixPack score: 3 pip: 70

7 point match

pip: 90 score: 6 is Chutzpah

XGID=-BCBBBB--------b---bbebBb-:1:1:1:51:6:3:0:7:10

to play 51

1.	XG Roller+	23/17	eq: -0.772
	Player: Opponent: 20.33% (G:0.75% B:0.01%) 79.67% (G:8.52% B:0.18%)
2.	XG Roller+	6/1 2/1	eq: -0.865 (-0.093)
	Player: Opponent: 12.90% (G:0.11% B:0.00%) 87.10% (G:5.86% B:0.14%)
3.	3-ply	6/5 6/1	eq: -0.853 (-0.081)
	Player: Opponent: 13.64% (G:0.20% B:0.00%) 86.36% (G:6.02% B:0.12%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

Without even thinking, I lifted the six point.  Gammonphobia again.  His awkward builder distro and the possibility of duplicating 2's gives me a golden opportunity to make a break for it. 

I do get gammoned a bit more often but give myself more than enough chances to win to compensate. 

******

Finally, a careless error at DMP.  21 to play. 

is SixPack score: 6 pip: 123

7 point match

pip: 61 score: 6 is Chutzpah

XGID=bBBBBCBB----b----b-b-bbba-:0:0:1:21:6:6:0:7:10

to play 21

1.	XG Roller+	6/5 6/4	eq: +0.965
	Player: Opponent: 98.27% (G:63.91% B:0.31%) 1.73% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.	XG Roller+	7/6 7/5	eq: +0.926 (-0.039)
	Player: Opponent: 96.32% (G:78.81% B:0.77%) 3.68% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.	4-ply	7/6 5/3	eq: +0.954 (-0.011)
	Player: Opponent: 97.70% (G:79.80% B:0.65%) 2.30% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

The only explanation for this is that I was playing on autopilot.  I just made the first play I saw without even thinking.

I know better than this, especially since I just reviewed DMP strategy in recent posts. This is the one-time when pre-clearing is right. All you care about is getting the mofo out of your hair. So open up right away and let the coming in begin.