Good news. Paul Money has resumed his blogging. Please check his excellent work at dorbel daily.
Below are selected errors from an online match against bjfarquhar.
Opening game of 11 point match. I have 43 to play.
is bjfarquhar score: 0 pip: 131  
11 point match  
pip: 109 score: 0 is Chutzpah  
XGID=BBcDBBBbbccbA:1:1:1:43:0:0:0:11:10  
to play 43 
1.  XG Roller+  7/4 7/3  eq: 0.053  
 
2.  XG Roller+  6/3 6/2  eq: 0.144 (0.090)  
 
3.  2ply  6/2 4/1  eq: 0.240 (0.186)  

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2
I moved 6/3, 6/2. This holds my baby prime but why? I am not trying to prime him here. Moreover, waht is the opponent going to do next time? He is going to hit me loose. Having a homeboard blot is not constructive at this time. Better was 7/4,7/3 which leaves the homeboard clean in aticipation of getting hit next time. Another point is that my move leaves me very brittle next time. I have no spares to play. The computer's play on the other hand gives me sixes out (if I don't get hit) and small numbers to maybe make a point next time.
**********
Same game. I won the cube and have 15 to play from the air.
is bjfarquhar score: 0 pip: 106  
11 point match  
pip: 104 score: 0 is Chutzpah  
XGID=aACBBBBBaaacbbbbA:1:1:1:51:0:0:0:11:10  
to play 51 
1.  XG Roller++  Bar/24 7/2  eq: 0.866  
 
2.  XG Roller++  Bar/24 9/4  eq: 0.945 (0.078)  
 
3.  2ply  Bar/24 8/3  eq: 1.072 (0.206)  

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2
This one I don't understand. I moved Bar/24, 9/4 while the correct play is Bar/24, 7/2.
I suppose the computer's play covers the 2 point and best positions me should my opponent miss. His sixes are duplicated after all. But the details show that this move gets you gammoned more while winning only a smidge more so I am not sure why this is the better play  looking at the numbers.
****************
I trail 11 away 9 away and have 41 to play.
is bjfarquhar score: 2 pip: 145  
11 point match  
pip: 146 score: 0 is Chutzpah  
XGID=bBDBCcBddbB:0:0:1:41:0:2:0:11:10  
to play 41 
1.  XG Roller+  24/20 6/5  eq: +0.367  
 
2.  XG Roller+  8/4 6/5  eq: +0.291 (0.076)  
 
3.  4ply  24/23 24/20  eq: +0.327 (0.040)  

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2
The obvious play is 24/20,6/5 splitting for an advanced anchor while diversifying on the other side of the board, and it is indeed correct.I moved 8/4, 6/5. My thinking was that my opponent has an attacking structure (rather than a priming structure) so I don't want to split into his stacks. I guess this was a case of overthinking. He has an anchor, I don't which favors splitting. I am short on timing, argues for moving the back guys now. I have a solid prime already, so it will be difficult for opponent to attack and escape at the same time. Meanwhile, getting a third checker behind my 4 prime is bad for him, also argues for splitting.
*************
Here is a simple 3rd roll position. 65R63S65??
is bjfarquhar score: 2 pip: 158  
11 point match  
pip: 156 score: 3 is Chutzpah  
XGID=aEaCdFaceA:0:0:1:65:3:2:0:11:10  
to play 65 
1.  XG Roller+  24/13  eq: +0.308  
 
2.  XG Roller+  13/7* 6/1*  eq: +0.225 (0.084)  
 
3.  3ply  13/8 13/7*  eq: +0.171 (0.138)  

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2
I made the 2nd roll play, 13/7*, 6/1* which is a large error in this exact position.Since I have escaped one man already, I should be thinking 'up in the race, race.' Simply 24/13 is correct and then hope to roll smooth and bring the position home from there.
Strategywise, I don't want to attack here nor do I want to be hit myself, so hitting is simply the wrong gameplan.
************
Here is another related 3rd roll position that I blundered. 65R64S55?
is bjfarquhar score: 2 pip: 157  
11 point match  
pip: 156 score: 7 is Chutzpah  
XGID=aEaCdFaceA:0:0:1:55:7:2:0:11:10  
to play 55 
1.  XG Roller+  13/8(2) 6/1*(2)  eq: +0.452  
 
2.  XG Roller+  8/3(2) 6/1*(2)  eq: +0.370 (0.082)  
 
3.  2ply  13/3(2)  eq: +0.213 (0.239)  

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2
Once again, I am up in the race and don't want to get hit, nor do I really want to attack/blitz.
My play 8/3*(2), 6/1(2)* leaves me blotted on the 8 point, while not really greatly placed for conducting a blitz anyway even in the best scenario.
The quiet and blotless 13/8(2), 6/1*(2) is the way to go. Put him on the bar, gain 20 pips, and leave no blots.
****************
Here is another early game position. I lead 2 away 9 away and have 41 to play.
is bjfarquhar score: 2 pip: 155  
11 point match  
pip: 155 score: 9 is Chutzpah  
XGID=bBEBcDaaceAA:0:0:1:41:9:2:0:11:10  
to play 41 
1.  XG Roller+  23/18  eq: 0.302  
 
2.  XG Roller+  13/9 6/5  eq: 0.360 (0.058)  
 
3.  4ply  24/20 6/5  eq: 0.304 (0.002)  

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2
I made the 'creative play' 13/9, 6/5 slotting the best blocking point and sort of duplicating some of his hitting 5's.The correct play 23/18 looks obvious in retrospect. This is a classic disctraction play. Opponent has an anchor and I don't so splitting is a priority. I have him outboarded right now 2 to 1 so action favors me at the moment. If I go for a high split I would rather get hit outside than inside where he may point on my head making a homebard point at the same time. So the bar poinr is the place to split to.
************
I lead 2 away 4 away and have 51 to play.
is bjfarquhar score: 7 pip: 161  
11 point match  
pip: 149 score: 9 is Chutzpah  
XGID=abDCCdBBaebA:0:0:1:51:9:7:0:11:10  
to play 51 
1.  XG Roller+  24/18  eq: +0.025  
 
2.  XG Roller+  24/23 8/3  eq: 0.123 (0.148)  
 
3.  2ply  8/2  eq: 0.177 (0.203)  

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2
I scooted up on pip and dumped behind him, 24/23, 8/3.Best was to simply try and escape 24/18.
I am up the race and my back blot is my big liability so running is good. He only hits sixes (minus 33) and aces which means he misses a significant portion of the time. If I do get hit I am not much worse off than before, only losing 7 pips. He only has a 2 point board so getting hit is not fatal. And I may get return shots from the bar, which is good. Also, dumping checkers behind him is not really what you want to do.
No comments:
Post a Comment