mohrp

Below are selected errors from an online match against mohrp.

First game of 7 point match.  I have already doubled and have 62 to play.

is mohrp score: 0 pip: 155

7 point match

pip: 120 score: 0 is Chutzpah

XGID=aBBAaBB-A---cC-a-bbeA-A---:1:-1:1:62:0:0:0:7:10

to play 62

1.	XG Roller+	13/7 8/6	eq: +0.551
	Player: Opponent: 66.11% (G:40.82% B:1.29%) 33.89% (G:8.16% B:0.47%)
2.	XG Roller+	22/20 13/7	eq: +0.542 (-0.009)
	Player: Opponent: 66.38% (G:37.45% B:1.19%) 33.62% (G:6.34% B:0.28%)
3.	XG Roller+	22/16 13/11	eq: +0.428 (-0.123)
	Player: Opponent: 63.78% (G:37.01% B:1.33%) 36.22% (G:10.25% B:0.92%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I moved 22/16, 13/11 which is a large mistake.

I was just trying to put my checkers in good spots should mohrp dance, but I am taking a pretty big chance.  The blot count is 5, at a time when 31, 34, 35 to enter and hit two blots.  33 appears to be really good either way.  All of his fours hit or clean up entirely while 44 becomes a super-joker.

Also, should morhrp dance then I have duplicated my own 5's, which hit on the outside but cover on the inside.

Best was 13/7, 8/6.  This cleans up one blot while diversiying my numbers should mohrp dance.  Now 5's hit on the outside while 3's and 4's cover.  Also Only 33 is a super joker for him while his entering sixes (36 46) are good rolls but also awkward.

**************
I lead 3 away 7 away and have 61 to play from the bar.

is mohrp score: 0 pip: 174

7 point match

pip: 164 score: 4 is Chutzpah

XGID=-b-a--E-CA--cD--ad-d----AA:0:0:1:61:4:0:0:7:10

to play 61

1.	XG Roller++	Bar/24 9/3*	eq: -0.261
	Player: Opponent: 48.91% (G:14.71% B:0.98%) 51.09% (G:14.47% B:0.74%)
2.	XG Roller++	Bar/18	eq: -0.321 (-0.059)
	Player: Opponent: 47.88% (G:13.20% B:0.78%) 52.12% (G:15.72% B:0.79%)
3.	3-ply	Bar/24 13/7	eq: -0.409 (-0.148)
	Player: Opponent: 45.97% (G:13.41% B:0.85%) 54.03% (G:16.89% B:1.33%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I tossed my guy to the bar point, Bar/18.

The computer likes Bar/24, 9/3*

Even though the 3 point is deep and I am using the wrong builder (I would rather attack by unstacking the 6 point) it looks like White's position is just too strong to leave alone.  I need to hit to try and slow him down.

By leaving him alone, mohrp is bound to do something good next turn. 
Also, my play abandons my anchor.  The ace point isn't much, but it is all I have at the moment so it may be prudent to hold it to cut down on the gammons a bit.

*************
I lead 3 away 6 away and have 44 to play.

is mohrp score: 1 pip: 137

7 point match

pip: 153 score: 4 is Chutzpah

XGID=----BcDAC---bB---bacB-bbA-:0:0:1:44:4:1:0:7:10

to play 44

1.	XG Roller++	24/20 13/9(2) 7/3	eq: -0.084
	Player: Opponent: 49.56% (G:7.00% B:0.21%) 50.44% (G:6.36% B:0.17%)
2.	XG Roller++	24/20 7/3 6/2(2)	eq: -0.114 (-0.031)
	Player: Opponent: 49.29% (G:8.75% B:0.26%) 50.71% (G:8.67% B:0.23%)
3.	4-ply	24/20 8/4 7/3 6/2	eq: -0.143 (-0.059)
	Player: Opponent: 48.68% (G:8.66% B:0.26%) 51.32% (G:9.26% B:0.29%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I made the second best play here, 24/20, 7/3, 6/2(2).  While it isn't the worst play I've ever made, I think the error is instructive. 

Best was 24/20, 13/9(2), 7/3.  13/9(2) is a useful play for several reasons.  First it forms a min-block agsint his anchor - The 6-point, 8-point, 9-point is often annoying for the opponent and I may be able to hold it for a while.  Second, I have an advanced anchor already so I don't need the midpoint anymore.  Third, holding the midpoint strips my position a bit.  By moving to the 9-point instead I keep more checkers above his anchor (for now) and also allow myself some time to move checkers for several rolls while I await a double to move off the anchor.  Finally, note the race is close which I is related to the above but reinforces the point that I form a position I can hold for a while while hoping to roll a double.

***********
Same game.  I have 32 to play.

is mohrp score: 1 pip: 107

7 point match

pip: 123 score: 4 is Chutzpah

XGID=--BBCbB-A---bB-A-b-bB-bbc-:0:0:1:32:4:1:0:7:10

to play 32

1.	XG Roller++	8/6 4/1	eq: -0.188
	Player: Opponent: 47.82% (G:12.54% B:0.36%) 52.18% (G:12.00% B:0.21%)
2.	XG Roller++	8/3	eq: -0.219 (-0.030)
	Player: Opponent: 46.49% (G:10.96% B:0.35%) 53.51% (G:10.52% B:0.14%)
3.	XG Roller++	15/13 4/1	eq: -0.257 (-0.068)
	Player: Opponent: 46.13% (G:10.87% B:0.21%) 53.87% (G:11.68% B:0.17%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I made the poor checker play, 15/31, 4/1.

Best was 8/6, 4/1 while also bad, but superior to my play would have been 8/3.

I think the idea is place your blot where opponent has to pay the biggest price to hit.

8/6 goes to a good spot as does 4/1 which is a small bonus.  The only use for my man on the 4 point is to fill in the ace so let's just go there now.  But again I think the key is to make him hit me from the midpoint.  This way, (1) I will have more jokers which enter and enter and hit - I may have aces to hit as extras.  (2) When opponent hits, at least he is not escaping his back men at the same time.  When he hits on his side of the board, he is no closer to escaping from the back anchor.  Compare to when he hits on my side of the board, and he is moving from the back anchor at the same time.  I think this small detail is important, and probably the strategical reason why my pay is wrong.  #1 is the tactical reason why it is wrong.

***********
I lead 3 away 4 away and am on roll.  Cube action?

is mohrp score: 3 pip: 135

7 point match

pip: 124 score: 4 is Chutzpah

XGID=-----CC-CBA-fC---bbbc-----:0:0:1:00:4:3:0:7:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	74.64% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)	74.72% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	25.36% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)	25.28% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.493	+1.487
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.822 (-0.061)
Double/Take:	+0.882
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.118)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

This one still confuses me.   I didn't double, thinking this is an easy money take and his take point at this score is lower than money so I should be more conservative with the cube and wait.

And yet, this is a small double for a money and a larger double at this score.  What is going on?  The short answer is I don't know but here is a guess.  Opponent's low takepoint is based on the power of his recube leverage.  In a contact position the trailer will have more opportunity to rewhip than in a straight race. 

The above makes some sense to me - but isn't my takepoint on a rewhip a very high 40%?  Even though a race with no contact where I can win two points is exactly what I want, don't I still need to be careful since he can turn around a long race very easily and all of a sudden I am dropping or playing for the match?  I still don't get it.

************
I lead 2 away 4 away and have 23 to play.

is mohrp score: 3 pip: 128

7 point match

pip: 121 score: 5 is Chutzpah

XGID=--bC-CB-B---bD---Abcc-c---:0:0:1:32:5:3:0:7:10

to play 32

1.	XG Roller++	17/14 13/11	eq: +0.210
	Player: Opponent: 62.76% (G:12.67% B:0.62%) 37.24% (G:9.85% B:0.24%)
2.	XG Roller++	13/8	eq: +0.154 (-0.056)
	Player: Opponent: 62.04% (G:11.65% B:0.58%) 37.96% (G:9.73% B:0.18%)
3.	XG Roller++	17/14 3/1	eq: +0.153 (-0.057)
	Player: Opponent: 61.07% (G:14.19% B:0.58%) 38.93% (G:10.62% B:0.23%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I noticed the duplication of 5's to hit and escape and so played 13/8 which balances my builders.

Apparently this was a situation where the most important factor is not getting hit and thus 17/14, 13/11 is the better play.

13/8 leaves 15 hitters - and mohrp certainly won't hesitate to hit.  The other play (17/14,13/11) leaves 13 hitters.