A42kilo: a couple more early game blunders

Here are two more early game checker blunders by me.  These are taken from an online match against A42kilo.


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I trail 7 away 6 away and have 61 to play.
54S-61P-21$-61 ??

is A42kilo score: 1 pip: 155

7 point match

pip: 160 score: 0 is Chutzpah

XGID=-a---aEBB---cDa--d-da---B-:0:0:1:61:0:1:0:7:10

to play 61

1.	XG Roller++	24/18 6/5*	eq: -0.018
	Player: Opponent: 49.80% (G:12.23% B:0.57%) 50.20% (G:14.49% B:0.64%)
2.	XG Roller++	13/7 6/5*	eq: -0.061 (-0.044)
	Player: Opponent: 48.30% (G:13.75% B:0.65%) 51.70% (G:15.33% B:0.88%)
3.	XG Roller++	7/1* 6/5*	eq: -0.069 (-0.051)
	Player: Opponent: 47.51% (G:16.54% B:0.86%) 52.49% (G:16.21% B:1.19%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I played 13/7, 6/5*.  Down from the midpoint is the wrong idea and splitting is better.

My midpoint is already unstacked and doesn't need development.  The bar is already made.  In other words, my back men or defense are in more urgent need of improvement than my offense.

In addition, opponent's 5 point blot and duplicatin of sixes works in my favor.  For example, if opponent enters with a six should he cover the 5 point of hit me?  Similarly, would opponent prefer to cover or hit me with an ace?

I've seen this idea before.  Hopefully it will stick now.

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Score is 6 away  and I have 62 to play.
31P-53P-65R-31P-51D-62??  [not sure on the nactation]

is A42kilo score: 1 pip: 146

7 point match

pip: 155 score: 1 is Chutzpah

XGID=-a-B-BC-A---eE---c-cc---B-:0:0:1:62:1:1:0:7:10

to play 62

1.	XG Roller+	13/5	eq: -0.298
	Player: Opponent: 41.43% (G:12.44% B:0.28%) 58.57% (G:13.73% B:0.67%)
2.	XG Roller+	24/16	eq: -0.379 (-0.081)
	Player: Opponent: 41.23% (G:9.75% B:0.28%) 58.77% (G:15.74% B:0.59%)
3.	4-ply	24/18 13/11	eq: -0.325 (-0.027)
	Player: Opponent: 42.55% (G:10.63% B:0.32%) 57.45% (G:16.98% B:0.86%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I ran with 24/16.  Wrong, wrong, wrong on so many levels.  13/5 is far and away the best play.

Why am I running when behind in the race?
Why am I leaving a blot in front of his stacked midpoint where he would love to hit?
Why am I leaving a blot at all when the roll plays nicely?  Meaning, 13/5 develops / unstacks the midpoint.