Deep Crawford, 2-away and 3-away scores

I saw this on bgonline.org and wanted to document it before I totally forgot it.  I am sure I will forget anyway, but at least I know where to look to find it again now.

Here is the original thread.  http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?read=134602

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Neil's Rule of .6: for approximating deep Crawford equities.  By Neil Kazaross.

Start from 6 away Crawford (11.3%) and multiply by .6 to get 8-away, 10-away, etc.

Or Start from 7 away Crawford (9.3%) and multiply by .6 to get 9-away, 11-away, etc.

** Neil recommends keeping in mind that .

6 x .6 is .36 ( a bit more than a 3rd)
.6 cubed is .216  (about .22 or a bit more than a fifth)
.6 to the 4th is .1296 (.13 or about an eighth)

Examples: Neil is way more exact as he calcs this in his head.  Below is a more realistic way of how I would do it.

6-away Crawford is 11% so ...
8-away Crawford is 11 x .6 or about 6.5%  [actual 6.76]
10-away Crawford is 11 x .36 or a bit more than a third or a bit less than 4% [actual 4.07]
12-away Crawford is 11 x .22 or a bit more than a fifth or a bit more than 2% [actual 2.45]
14-away Crawford is 11 x an eighth or about 1.5% [actual 1.47]

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Chuck's rule of .7868: for approximating deep 2-away scores.  By Chuck Bower.

Start with the deepest 2 away score you remember and multiply by .7868 to get the next one, ad infinitum down the line.

OK, OK no way I am doing .7868 so let's call this Chuck's rule of .8 - close enough for me.

* note * .8 squared is .64 or a bit less than 2/3 and .8 cubed is about 1/2

2-away 6 away Crawford is 20%
2-away 7 away Crawford is 16% [actual 16.2]
2-away 8 away is 12.8

* note * another trick for 2-away equities comes from MCG (Matt Cohn-Geier) who writes that the two away equities are close to the crawford equities, shift 2.

So using MCG...
2 away 6 away is like 4 away Crawford or 21% [actual 20]
2 away 7 away is like 5 away Crawfod or 16% [actual 16.2]
2 away 8 away is like 6 away Crawford or 11% [actual 12.5]
2 away 9 away is like 7 away Crawford or 9% [actual 9.8]


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Jason's Rule of 2/3: for approximating deep 3-away equities.  By Jason Lee.

Start from 3 away 6 away (28.9%) and multiply by 2/3 to get 8 away, 10 away, etc.

Or Start with 3 away 7 away (23.8%) and multply by 2/3 to get 9 away, 11 away, etc.

Examples: again doing it my way since math is not my forte. Jason is very exact and all in his head!!

3 away 6 away.  Neil's Number is 7 so leader is 71 and trailer 29. [actual 28.9]
3 away 8 away.  2/3 of 29 is about 20% [actual 19.5]
3 away 10 away.  2/3 of 20% is about 14% [actual 12.9]

3 away 7 away.  Stick's 7 away trick says we know 7 away Crawford is 9%, then add 7% for each jump up so 3 away 7 away is 23% [actual 23.8%]
3 away 9 away.  2/3 of 23 is about 16% [actual 15.98]
3 away 11 away.  2/3 of 16 or about 10% [actual 10.56]