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April 6, 2013

The boneheads are back

I was out of town for a week on business. First match back and the bonehead plays are back!!

***********
42 to play.
is alicalkap

score: 0
pip: 144
                         
7 point match
                          pip: 143
score: 0

is Chutzpah
XGID=--B-BbCB----cD---bccb--AA-:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:7:10
to play 42

1.XG Roller++23/21 13/9eq: -0.797
Player:
Opponent:
31.80% (G:6.77% B:0.20%)
68.20% (G:19.21% B:0.87%)
2.XG Roller++23/21 6/2eq: -0.897 (-0.100)
Player:
Opponent:
30.49% (G:5.44% B:0.14%)
69.51% (G:20.19% B:0.74%)
3.4-ply24/22 13/9eq: -0.826 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:
31.73% (G:6.21% B:0.18%)
68.27% (G:20.52% B:0.89%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

This really should be a "next" yet I goofed it up.

Before the dice are even rolled I want to advance my back men to make an anchor.  Opponent has an advanced anchor and I don't, and opponent has a better prime than I do.  2's and 3's are going to the 21 point and perhaps aces too.

So the 2 is "forced" 23/21.

How about the 4?

6/2 is ridiculous (my play) which leaves 13/9 as the only alternative. 

I have some tactics on my side as some 4's are duplicated (42 and 43 and 44 crushes me anyway, and even 45 46 give me a chance to roll a 4 from the bar to anchor)

*************

I lead 6 away 7 away and have 42 to play.  This time against manna90254

is manna90254

score: 0
pip: 145
                         
7 point match
                          pip: 193
score: 1

is Chutzpah
XGID=-----aC-D-a-cD--ad-e-B--AA:0:0:1:42:1:0:0:7:10
to play 42

1.XG Roller++Bar/23 13/9eq: -0.445
Player:
Opponent:
41.67% (G:9.05% B:0.33%)
58.33% (G:20.67% B:1.01%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/23 8/4eq: -0.451 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
41.23% (G:8.94% B:0.31%)
58.77% (G:19.89% B:0.95%)
3.XG Roller++Bar/21 13/11eq: -0.462 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
41.26% (G:8.60% B:0.30%)
58.74% (G:20.45% B:0.84%)
4.XG Roller++Bar/21 8/6eq: -0.500 (-0.055)
Player:
Opponent:
39.43% (G:8.26% B:0.26%)
60.57% (G:18.51% B:0.65%)
5.XG Roller++Bar/21 6/4eq: -0.511 (-0.066)
Player:
Opponent:
39.77% (G:8.10% B:0.26%)
60.23% (G:19.81% B:0.75%)
6.XG Roller++Bar/21 24/22eq: -0.555 (-0.110)
Player:
Opponent:
38.28% (G:7.35% B:0.25%)
61.72% (G:18.54% B:0.55%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2
I moved Bar/21, 24/22.  I highlight this play because my move is so illogical.

I am way behind in the race - under no circumstances should I be moving my backmost checker.  This is insanity. 

There are several moves that are reasonable.  The key once again is don't touch that back man!!

Bar/23 makes the most sense, staying furthest back and covering the most territory should opponenet leave a blot while leaving the most opportunities to form a second anchor.  Either 13/9 or 8/4 are logical 4's.

*************
Here is another play from the same game.  64 to play.

is manna90254

score: 0
pip: 121
                         
7 point match
                          pip: 149
score: 1

is Chutzpah
XGID=----BaB-CBAabB-Bbb-bbA-ba-:0:0:1:64:1:0:0:7:10
to play 64

1.XG Roller+15/11* 11/5* eq: +0.519
Player:
Opponent:
64.04% (G:20.49% B:1.12%)
35.96% (G:14.99% B:0.93%)
2.XG Roller+21/11* eq: +0.347 (-0.172)
Player:
Opponent:
60.25% (G:14.65% B:0.76%)
39.75% (G:13.85% B:0.39%)
3.1-ply15/9 15/11* eq: +0.061 (-0.458)
Player:
Opponent:
54.64% (G:14.24% B:0.84%)
45.36% (G:19.49% B:0.64%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2
I hit from the back 21/11*  This is the wrong strategy.  For one, I am still behind in the race, so disengaging seems to be the wrong idea.  Also, tactically this is weakeast as I give my opponent many good rolls.  Most 5's and 6's enter and hit at a time when I am outboarded (though he does have the return blot on the ace) while some 5's simply anchor when opponent is happy.  So about 1/2 the rolls opponent is happy.

On the other hand, hitting two with 15/11*/5* puts tremendous pressure on opponent to roll a 5.  So less good rolls and more upside when it works.  If opponent doesn't roll a 5 he's basically hosed.  And even if does roll a 5, I have that return shot at his blot on the ace, lessening the damage somewhat.

*************
Here's another "next" from the same game that I got way wrong.  64 to play.

is manna90254

score: 0
pip: 121
                         
7 point match
                          pip: 168
score: 1

is Chutzpah
XGID=----BaCABA-bcB-----cbD-bb-:0:0:1:64:1:0:0:7:10
to play 64

1.XG Roller+13/9 13/7eq: -0.392
Player:
Opponent:
40.53% (G:9.13% B:0.35%)
59.47% (G:14.86% B:0.22%)
2.XG Roller+9/3 7/3eq: -0.508 (-0.116)
Player:
Opponent:
37.86% (G:8.90% B:0.26%)
62.14% (G:16.08% B:0.26%)
3.2-ply13/7 9/5* eq: -0.744 (-0.352)
Player:
Opponent:
38.67% (G:9.56% B:0.32%)
61.33% (G:33.43% B:0.99%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

My first instinct was 13/9, 13/7 but in the end I made the point 9/3, 7/3.  This is a huge mitake, and  shortsighted.

First off, I don't really want the 3 point. The 5 point is a higher priority.

Second, even though I don't particularly want to prime his lone man, I do form a 4 prime with which close to half the numbers fail to escape.

Third, 13/9, 13/7 buys some time.  I now have six checkers to play with on my side of the board while I wait for shots.

Fourth, and most important, my opponent lacks a stepping stone on his outer board to bring his men home safely.  I will likely get multiple indirect shots and/or some direct shots as well.  Again, since he lacks a point in his outer board it will be very difficult to bring these men around.  Patience grasshopper, patience!!

1 comment:

  1. Good positions, Bill. The final position is the one I think is the trickiest. Since you're hoping to hit and contain a checker, making a home-board point is not necessarily a crazy idea when Black has a blot lying around. Also, 13/9 13/7 disconnects your army and gives up outfield control. However, I think the main issue is one of timing. 9/3 7/3 works well if you get an immediate shot but don't get one later. But since you're likely to get a shot later, it's better to adopt a strategy of making sure you can build your offensive position smoothly and safely over the next few rolls.

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