April 27, 2013

Gary F autopsy

Here are ALL my errors from match against Gary F in Flint a couple weeks ago.

************

Opening game of 9 point match.  I am on roll.  Cube action?

is Gary F

score: 0
pip: 131
                         
9 point match
                          pip: 157
score: 0

is Bill
XGID=-a--aCC-BB--bB---b-eBbb-A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:9:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 60.56% (G:18.21% B:0.72%) 60.64% (G:18.24% B:0.73%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 39.44% (G:10.90% B:0.39%) 39.36% (G:10.78% B:0.38%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.287 +0.592
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.446
     Double/Take:+0.306 (-0.141)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.554)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 16.8%
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I got a bit overanxious and doubled too early.

I have a decent position, but I am way down in the race (3 back to 2) , am outboarded, and -key- I am not really threatening anything.  You need market losers to double and I just don't have them here.

Another way to look at it PRAT.  I got the better position but am down in the race, outboarded and not really threatening much (as noted above).  So, once again, no double.

***************

What actually happened was a great sequence for me.  54P, Dance.  Now look at the cube action.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 135
                         
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
                          pip: 148
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=aa--BCC-AA--bB---b-eBbb-A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 69.06% (G:28.36% B:1.03%) 69.14% (G:29.70% B:1.03%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 30.94% (G:7.54% B:0.27%) 30.86% (G:7.70% B:0.30%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.597 +1.220
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.839 (-0.159)
Double/Take:+0.998
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.002)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02

It's still boderline take / drop even after the king of exchanges for me.  Hence the earlier double is just too optimistic.

*****************
I trail 7 away 9 away and have 22 to play from the air.

is Gary F

score: 2
pip: 140
                         
9 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 0

is Bill
XGID=-a----EaC--AcDa--c-bb---bB:0:0:1:22:0:2:0:9:10
to play 22

1.XG Roller++Bar/23(2) 6/4(2)eq: -0.309
Player:
Opponent:
41.72% (G:9.56% B:0.33%)
58.28% (G:17.43% B:0.66%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/23(2) 13/11(2)eq: -0.394 (-0.085)
Player:
Opponent:
38.77% (G:8.51% B:0.27%)
61.23% (G:15.35% B:0.56%)
3.4-plyBar/23(2) 13/11 6/4eq: -0.392 (-0.084)
Player:
Opponent:
39.48% (G:8.50% B:0.33%)
60.52% (G:18.55% B:0.75%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

This one is slam dunk obvious. Bar/23(2), 6/4(2).

Which is actually what I did instantly.  Then I started thinking before I picked up the dice.  Next thing you know I had talked myself out of leaving a blot and played Bar/23(2), 13/11(2).  Ugh.

Unstacking and making an inner board so SO  SSSSSSOOOOOOOO  much more important then leaving a blot here.  Getting hit isn't even so bad given the status of the race and Gary's already made ace point.  On the other hand, the benefits of getting some structre while making a homebard point and unstacking are well - obvious.

************

Next turn.  52 to play.

is Gary F

score: 2
pip: 135
                         
9 point match
                          pip: 159
score: 0

is Bill
XGID=-a----EaC--CcB---bbbb--Bb-:0:0:1:52:0:2:0:9:10
to play 52

1.XG Roller+11/4eq: -0.553
Player:
Opponent:
35.54% (G:7.54% B:0.27%)
64.46% (G:18.93% B:0.82%)
2.XG Roller+8/1* eq: -0.651 (-0.098)
Player:
Opponent:
32.94% (G:7.22% B:0.20%)
67.06% (G:19.17% B:0.85%)
3.4-ply23/21 6/1* eq: -0.606 (-0.053)
Player:
Opponent:
35.25% (G:7.89% B:0.28%)
64.75% (G:26.37% B:0.87%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

One bad play leasds to another.

I moved 8/1* on the logic that it is the least shots and disrupts the connection to the man on my bar point.

But where is the upside to my play?  answer: none.  And that's precisely the problem.

The best play is 11/4, placing the blot on the best available point.  Note I am praying to make the structure that I could have had last roll for free.

**************

I trail 6 away 9 away and have 42 to play from the air.

is Gary F

score: 3
pip: 156
                         
9 point match
                          pip: 170
score: 0

is Bill
XGID=-a----EaC-A-eC----ccbB---A:0:0:1:42:0:3:0:9:10
to play 42

1.XG Roller+Bar/21 10/8eq: -0.231
Player:
Opponent:
42.28% (G:7.36% B:0.19%)
57.72% (G:8.55% B:0.26%)
2.XG Roller+Bar/23 10/6eq: -0.329 (-0.099)
Player:
Opponent:
39.81% (G:7.78% B:0.20%)
60.19% (G:10.76% B:0.35%)
3.3-plyBar/21 6/4eq: -0.350 (-0.119)
Player:
Opponent:
39.74% (G:7.24% B:0.22%)
60.26% (G:13.03% B:0.37%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I played Bar/23, 10/6.    "I am down in the race and need the contact"  Therefore stay back, Bar/23 and look for a 4.  10/6 is all there is."  Superficial thinking on my part.

Best is Bar/21, 10/8,

First off, my play is ugly as sin. 
Second, the race isn't hopeless.  I am only down 8 pips, I have an anchor and all my checkers in play.  Third, My position in undeveleped but still has potential.

It's odd how so many of my errors are lumpy large obvious mistakes rather than small drips and drabs of equity.

**************

Later in the same game.  I have 31 to play.

is Gary F

score: 3
pip: 132
                         
9 point match
                          pip: 162
score: 0

is Bill
XGID=-----BEbB---cC-a--cbbB-b-A:0:0:1:31:0:3:0:9:10
to play 31

1.XG Roller+Bar/22 6/5eq: -0.399
Player:
Opponent:
38.27% (G:7.63% B:0.23%)
61.73% (G:12.68% B:0.32%)
2.XG Roller+Bar/24 6/3eq: -0.467 (-0.068)
Player:
Opponent:
36.82% (G:7.84% B:0.23%)
63.18% (G:14.55% B:0.46%)
3.4-plyBar/21eq: -0.414 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
36.75% (G:6.59% B:0.20%)
63.25% (G:9.87% B:0.24%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

At least I was consistent.  I played Bar/24, 6/3.  Same basic logic as last time.  I am down in the race and want maximum contact possible.

The problem this time (I think) is I don't have the timing to hold everything.  My position is a bit stripped and I am lacking spares to play.  My position rates to collapse soon after my play.

Either Bar/21, which prepares to launch another guy into the outfield to maintain timing, -or-
Bar/22, 6/5 which maintains pressure, prepares to escape to outfield, and develops my front position, are superior plays.

Getting inside my head, I think the issue is a lack of imagination on my part.  I am thinking an inch deep (behind, stay back, end of story) when I need to imagine the game flow several rolls ahead.

In the first case, the position wasn't desperate enough to stay back on the ace while in the second, I lack the timing for the desperate stay back plan to work.

************

I trail 4 away 9 away and have 21 to play.

is Gary F

score: 5
pip: 144
                         
9 point match
                          pip: 145
score: 0

is Bill
XGID=----bBD-D---dC--Aabbb-b-A-:0:0:1:21:0:5:0:9:10
to play 21

1.XG Roller+24/21eq: -0.341
Player:
Opponent:
41.85% (G:6.76% B:0.23%)
58.15% (G:20.61% B:0.50%)
2.XG Roller+16/13eq: -0.391 (-0.050)
Player:
Opponent:
39.29% (G:5.87% B:0.19%)
60.71% (G:15.80% B:0.32%)
3.4-ply24/23 16/14eq: -0.428 (-0.087)
Player:
Opponent:
38.96% (G:6.65% B:0.20%)
61.04% (G:20.85% B:0.52%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2


I made the "automatic" play 16/13, which cleans up a blot but fails to meet the demands of the position.

If we think gameplan here, I am not going to win by prime nor attack.  Race is my best chance,  I want to roll a 3 to move up my back man and hopefully pop out my back man and win the race.  OK, so it's not going to be easy but this is my best way to win.  Wait, I just rolled a 3!  So 24/21 cries out to be played.

Even though it leaves two blots, I need to take my chance now while Gary F lacks the ammo to do serious damage.  Also, note the longer I wait, the more dangerous is becomes to scoot up.

************

I trail 4 away 8 away and have 22 to play.
is Gary F

score: 5
pip: 153
                         
9 point match
                          pip: 115
score: 1

is Bill
XGID=aABaCCB--A--d----b-eBbA---:1:-1:1:22:1:5:0:9:10
to play 22

1.XG Roller++22/18 5/3* 3/1eq: +1.626
Player:
Opponent:
87.56% (G:73.81% B:0.49%)
12.44% (G:2.04% B:0.10%)
2.XG Roller++20/16 5/3* 3/1eq: +1.619 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
87.05% (G:74.27% B:0.50%)
12.95% (G:2.44% B:0.14%)
3.XG Roller++20/18(2) 5/3* 3/1eq: +1.608 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:
86.96% (G:73.56% B:0.51%)
13.04% (G:2.49% B:0.16%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

This small technical error is worth examing since it comes up all the time. Besides, I am documenting ALL my errors, even the small ones, so this has to count.

I played 20/18(2), 5/3*/1.

While it doesn't make a huge equity difference, the best play is 22/18, 5/3*/1.

In these late stage blitz positions, where the guy is almost closed out and you are scrambling home, the key is ALWAYS MOVE THE BACK CHECKER. 

************

Later in the same game.  64 to play.

is Gary F

score: 5
pip: 156
                         
9 point match
                          pip: 98
score: 1

is Bill
XGID=bBBACBB-----d--A-bAe-bA---:1:-1:1:64:1:5:0:9:10
to play 64

1.XG Roller+22/18 15/9eq: +1.759
Player:
Opponent:
90.06% (G:79.88% B:0.57%)
9.94% (G:1.89% B:0.11%)
2.XG Roller+18/14 15/9eq: +1.711 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:
88.68% (G:78.72% B:0.55%)
11.32% (G:2.44% B:0.18%)
3.4-ply18/8eq: +1.687 (-0.071)
Player:
Opponent:
88.28% (G:77.65% B:0.56%)
11.72% (G:2.50% B:0.17%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

Another example of the same theme. I played 22/18, 15/9 going maximum offense to complete the closeout.

Yet the best play is to move the back checker!!  22/18, 15/9 comes out on top.  Probably there is merit in guarding against the super joker 33.  But also direct sixes and ones to cover is alot so the guy 11 away is overkill.  In fact, this man doesn't even add another cover number.

*********

Later in the same game.  11 to play.

is Gary F

score: 5
pip: 147
                         
9 point match
                          pip: 122
score: 1

is Bill
XGID=aBBABBB--a--d-A--b-e-bAAA-:1:-1:1:11:1:5:0:9:10
to play 11

1.XG Roller++6/5 6/3eq: +0.784
Player:
Opponent:
67.52% (G:43.11% B:0.20%)
32.48% (G:6.60% B:0.31%)
2.XG Roller++14/13 5/4 5/3eq: +0.782 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
67.04% (G:44.17% B:0.25%)
32.96% (G:7.51% B:0.41%)
3.XG Roller++14/13 6/3eq: +0.739 (-0.045)
Player:
Opponent:
64.10% (G:46.42% B:0.32%)
35.90% (G:10.17% B:0.69%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

This one surprises me. I thought the best way to win was to close him out.  Thus, keep the point slotted.

Apparently that is risking too much.  The computer likes to lift the blot and put the pressure on Gary to come in.  If he doesn't I may pick up a second blot and cruise around to a gammon anyway while he has two men in the air.  Or, if he does come in, at least it isn't with tempo.  Any hit from me later could well be fatal as I still own a 5 point board.

***************

One more from this game, though out of order.  I trail 4 away 8 away and have 44 to play.

is Gary F

score: 5
pip: 161
                         
9 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 1

is Bill
XGID=-aa---E-C---dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:44:1:5:0:9:10
to play 44

1.XG Roller++8/4(2) 6/2*(2) eq: +0.577
Player:
Opponent:
57.35% (G:21.93% B:0.93%)
42.65% (G:10.53% B:0.52%)
2.XG Roller++24/20(2) 13/9(2)eq: +0.503 (-0.074)
Player:
Opponent:
59.32% (G:13.71% B:0.39%)
40.68% (G:6.08% B:0.19%)
3.4-ply13/9(2) 6/2*(2) eq: +0.485 (-0.092)
Player:
Opponent:
57.18% (G:18.53% B:0.94%)
42.82% (G:10.47% B:0.47%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I made the money play 24/20(2), 13/9(2) without skipping a beat.

At this score, correct by a large margin is 8/4*(2), 6/2*(2).  Trailing by a large margin, I want to capture those gammons.  Playing aggressive is the way to do it.  It pays to stay alert to the score and gammon values at all times!!

*****************

Next score is 4 away 4 away and I have 41 to play.

is Gary F

score: 5
pip: 130
                         
9 point match
                          pip: 151
score: 5

is Bill
XGID=----a-EBC---cC---cbdAb--A-:0:0:1:41:5:5:0:9:10
to play 41

1.XG Roller+24/20 8/7eq: -0.449
Player:
Opponent:
36.04% (G:4.32% B:0.09%)
63.96% (G:5.14% B:0.12%)
2.XG Roller+24/20 6/5eq: -0.533 (-0.084)
Player:
Opponent:
34.69% (G:4.89% B:0.13%)
65.31% (G:7.94% B:0.19%)
3.2-ply24/20 7/6eq: -0.760 (-0.312)
Player:
Opponent:
29.17% (G:3.30% B:0.06%)
70.83% (G:7.62% B:0.17%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I moved 24/20, 6/5.  There is some logic to this.  After all, I am down in the race and have an achor so a "bold" play seems to be called for per the Magriel criteria.

However, tactically this has some defects.  The reserved 24/20, 8/7 is preferred.

Basically, Gary wants to run next time.  5's and 6's pop out and now aces hit me.  So, all I've done with my "creative" play is simply diversify his numbers.  Never a good idea.

****************

I lead 2 away 3 away and have 61 to play from the bar.

is Gary F

score: 6
pip: 121
                         
9 point match
                          pip: 129
score: 7

is Bill
XGID=--BaBCC-A--Ab--b-bbcB--baA:0:0:1:61:7:6:0:9:10
to play 61

1.XG Roller+Bar/24* 20/14eq: +0.644
Player:
Opponent:
64.62% (G:37.18% B:1.01%)
35.38% (G:9.22% B:0.76%)
2.XG Roller+Bar/24* 11/5eq: +0.475 (-0.169)
Player:
Opponent:
60.79% (G:32.44% B:0.76%)
39.21% (G:7.50% B:0.43%)
3.3-plyBar/24* 8/2eq: +0.402 (-0.242)
Player:
Opponent:
59.96% (G:29.11% B:0.63%)
40.04% (G:7.50% B:0.34%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2


Fear got the better of me, as I played Bar/24*, 11/5. Clearly the DMP play was Bar/24*, 20/14. 11/5 adds nothing to the offense. Moreover, I need to pop out to the outfield to make sure I don't get jammed in on his side of the board.

***************

Later in the same game. 43 to play.
is Gary F

score: 6
pip: 147
                         
9 point match
                          pip: 139
score: 7

is Bill
XGID=aaB-BDC-----b--b-bbcB--bAA:0:0:1:43:7:6:0:9:10
to play 43

1.XG Roller+Bar/22 5/1* eq: +0.432
Player:
Opponent:
60.45% (G:34.63% B:0.64%)
39.55% (G:9.54% B:0.50%)
2.XG Roller+Bar/21 24/21eq: +0.342 (-0.089)
Player:
Opponent:
58.65% (G:28.20% B:1.06%)
41.35% (G:7.95% B:0.31%)
3.4-plyBar/22 20/16eq: +0.404 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:
60.54% (G:31.31% B:1.26%)
39.46% (G:9.81% B:0.58%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

Once again I played too wimpy.  I moved Bar/21, 24/21. 

Correct was Bar/22, 5/1*

With 4 men back I didn't think I had enough material to conduct a blitz.  After all, I can't complete a closeout with only 11 men.  However, if I can make a 5 point board with two men on the bar ... this is very VERY strong.  It would probably allow me enough time scramble around home while he dances the night away.  At any rate, the attack represents the best way to win.

**************

Later in the same game.  I have 31 to play.

is Gary F

score: 6
pip: 148
                         
9 point match
                          pip: 99
score: 7

is Bill
XGID=bBBABBB-A---b--bBbbcA--b--:0:0:1:31:7:6:0:9:10
to play 31

1.XG Roller+6/5 6/3eq: +1.933
Player:
Opponent:
86.59% (G:67.61% B:0.43%)
13.41% (G:1.84% B:0.09%)
2.XG Roller+16/13 8/7eq: +1.880 (-0.053)
Player:
Opponent:
84.43% (G:70.78% B:0.62%)
15.57% (G:4.04% B:0.52%)
3.4-ply16/13 4/3eq: +1.852 (-0.081)
Player:
Opponent:
84.34% (G:71.31% B:0.58%)
15.66% (G:3.90% B:0.36%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

This theme appeared in an earlier error. I played big, 16/13, 8/7 going for the close out.

The problem is this play is TOO BIG.  Better is to lift the blot and just crise home while opponent is on the bar.  This wins the most (DMP play) while also scoring 67% gammons.  Those gammons would have won the match by the way - Doh!

************

Still later in the same game.  62 to play.

is Gary F

score: 6
pip: 148
                         
9 point match
                          pip: 95
score: 7

is Bill
XGID=bBBABBBA----bA-bAbbcA--b--:0:0:1:62:7:6:0:9:10
to play 62

1.XG Roller+20/14 13/11eq: +2.137
Player:
Opponent:
88.51% (G:76.90% B:0.62%)
11.49% (G:2.34% B:0.23%)
2.XG Roller+16/8eq: +2.078 (-0.059)
Player:
Opponent:
87.13% (G:76.90% B:0.59%)
12.87% (G:3.17% B:0.37%)
3.4-ply20/14 5/3eq: +2.086 (-0.051)
Player:
Opponent:
87.96% (G:76.64% B:0.58%)
12.04% (G:2.83% B:0.24%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2



This theme also appeared in pervious problems. I moved 16/8, all offense, to complete the closeout. Best was the simply move that back checker 20/14, 13/11. The extra covers is overkill really. Meanwhile, I get my biggest liablility out of there. Note that this time lifting the blot is wrong. The play 20/14, 3/1 is not shown but wins 88% while gammoning 72%. So the "safe" play wins a tiny bit more but gammons 5% less - in this case. *********** Above was my final error of the match. I lost the last game at DMP, playing almost perfect the final game. If you are keeping score at home, my PR this match was 3.9 Let this be an example for the kids. You can make all sorts of blunders and whoppers and still end up with a World Class rating.

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