Practice match with Mr X - 2

I played another training match with Mr X yesterday.  Below are selected blunders from this live encounter.

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Opening game of 11 point match. 55 to play.

is Mr X score: 0 pip: 148

11 point match

pip: 144 score: 0 is Bill

XGID=-a--a-ECB---bC-Aacbe---A--:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:11:10

to play 55

1.	XG Roller++	8/3(2) 6/1*(2)	eq: +0.424
	Player: Opponent: 58.19% (G:22.48% B:0.89%) 41.81% (G:9.16% B:0.37%)
2.	XG Roller++	7/2(2) 6/1*(2)	eq: +0.364 (-0.059)
	Player: Opponent: 57.04% (G:24.73% B:0.80%) 42.96% (G:10.62% B:0.53%)
3.	XG Roller++	15/10 13/8 6/1*(2)	eq: +0.279 (-0.145)
	Player: Opponent: 55.03% (G:19.74% B:0.60%) 44.97% (G:9.82% B:0.39%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I moved 15/10, 13/8, 6/1(2).  This brings my man around into attack position should Mr X not anchor or hit me. 

But it violoates two key fundamentals from this position.

First, making a second inner point increases his dancing numbers from 4 to 9 - very important considersation here.  A dance and Mr X is screwed.

Second, it's almost always wrong to give the opponent good sixes from the bar in the early game.  In and a six hits me.

Perhaps a third fundamental would be once you've gone deep, commit to it.  I've made the ace point already so let's just do this thing.  It's too late to look pretty this game.

*************

Later in the same game. A techincal play - how best to move these 33's?

is Mr X score: 0 pip: 141

11 point match

pip: 143 score: 0 is Bill

XGID=-B-aa-BCC-A-bB--acbd---AaA:1:-1:1:33:0:0:0:11:10

to play 33

1.	XG Roller++	Bar/22 23/20 7/4*(2)	eq: +0.330
	Player: Opponent: 63.53% (G:27.60% B:1.28%) 36.47% (G:9.78% B:0.53%)
2.	XG Roller++	Bar/22 10/4* 7/4	eq: +0.316 (-0.014)
	Player: Opponent: 62.87% (G:27.29% B:1.27%) 37.13% (G:9.20% B:0.34%)
3.	4-ply	Bar/22 13/10 7/4*(2)	eq: +0.258 (-0.072)
	Player: Opponent: 60.57% (G:27.67% B:1.59%) 39.43% (G:10.09% B:0.52%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I played Bar/22, 7/4*(2) - obvious - plus 10/7 with the last 3.

The computer preferes Bar/22, 7/4*(2) - and 23/20 with the last 3.

A very small difference but it is interesting to figure out what is going on here.  Not sure I understand, but here goes:

• Being on the duece point sucks.  "Always move the back checker"

• This is about diversifing my numbers.  4's and 6's hit on his side of the board while 5's, 3's and 2's aim at the 5 point on my side of the board.

• I don't really care about getting hit so much here.  Any non-double hit by Mr X will leave himself severely exposed elsewhere.

• I am not trying to prime him - I am attacking.

*********************

 Later in the same game.  36 to play from the air.

is Mr X score: 0 pip: 180

11 point match

pip: 158 score: 0 is Bill

XGID=bB-aBaBBA---bB--Acbd---AAA:1:-1:1:63:0:0:0:11:10

to play 63

1.	XG Roller++	Bar/16	eq: +0.170
	Player: Opponent: 57.51% (G:26.87% B:1.41%) 42.49% (G:10.07% B:0.48%)
2.	XG Roller++	Bar/22 16/10	eq: +0.146 (-0.024)
	Player: Opponent: 56.23% (G:28.14% B:1.62%) 43.77% (G:10.68% B:0.57%)
3.	3-ply	Bar/22 13/7	eq: +0.086 (-0.084)
	Player: Opponent: 54.77% (G:26.89% B:1.59%) 45.23% (G:11.64% B:0.65%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I played Bar/22, 16/10.  Bringing more wood into the zone.

Computer suggests Bar/22, 22/16 instead. 

Again, not a terrible mistake but let's try to figure out why.  Once again, not entirely sure I know why, but here is my guess:

Attack is unlikely to succeed here.  Therefore I need to get my back guys into the game (outfield control)

I don't want to get my position too disconencted.  Where I am all offense, then suddenly Mr X Anchors and my back men are stranded.

So I am thinking my priorites were off - attacking is not my main game plan anymore since Mr X is about to anchor.

***************

I trail 10 away 7 away and Mr X is on roll.  Cube action?

is Mr X score: 4 pip: 135

11 point match

pip: 130 score: 1 is Bill

XGID=aA----EbCC---B---bdbbbA---:0:0:-1:00:1:4:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	68.51% (G:26.63% B:0.71%)	68.66% (G:26.90% B:0.72%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	31.49% (G:6.31% B:0.23%)	31.34% (G:6.23% B:0.22%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.586	+1.160
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.703 (-0.089)
Double/Take:	+0.792
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.208)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

This looked super scary and I dropped.

Let's start with the basics

• Position - Large advantage Mr X.  I am totally undeveloped while he has an intimidating 5 prime.

• Race - Close but slight advantage to me.

• Threats - Any ace is great and Mr X will also hit with most 4's and also double 2's, and double 5's is a superjoker.

All in all, pretty scary but let's look at the virtues of this position.

• Even if Mr X does hit the ace I may make an anchor and play from there.

• Also he has three men to bring around.  Sometimes this could be difficult.

• While my position is undeveloped I do have all my checkers in play so the potential to make structure later.

• Oh, and Mr X might miss!! Also I am at the edge of the prime and may jump out immediately with a six.

The computer has it as a .06 take for money. Note trailing by 3 makes this a much larger take. My wins with a cube on 4 are very valuable.  So the match score has a big impact.

practice match with Mr X

Below are selected errors from a live practice match against Mr X.

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9 away 9 away and I am on roll.  Cube action?

is Mr X score: 0 pip: 159

9 point match

pip: 170 score: 0 is Bill Live

XGID=---BaaC-CA-Ad--a-dBd--C---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:9:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller+	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	55.17% (G:20.32% B:1.09%)	54.92% (G:20.18% B:1.07%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	44.83% (G:11.12% B:0.43%)	45.08% (G:11.25% B:0.44%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.202	+0.401
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.301
Double/Take:	+0.070 (-0.231)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.699)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 19.9%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

Yes I made a ridiculous double here, almost a beaver.

I am down in the race, but have the better board, and some attacking chances.  Also, Mr X has not much of anything going.  I must have overemphasized the three blots plus 10 in the zone, combined with the fact that Mr X hasn't accomplished anything so far this game, so any recube will be a long time coming.

Still, objectively I have only a two point board, am way down in the race, and am not really threatening too much this roll.

***************

I am on roll I leading 5 away 9 away.  Cube action?

is Mr X score: 0 pip: 134

9 point match

pip: 117 score: 4 is Bill Live

XGID=---Bb-E-CB--bC--ba-daba---:0:0:1:00:4:0:0:9:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	70.01% (G:2.57% B:0.06%)	69.94% (G:2.54% B:0.05%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	29.99% (G:2.01% B:0.03%)	30.06% (G:1.95% B:0.03%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.406	+0.783
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.580
Double/Take:	+0.467 (-0.113)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.420)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 17.5%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

Another early double by me.

I am a solid 70/30 favorite as the computer shows.  The problem is Mr X is taking down to low 20's so I am just not close enough to the drop zone to justify a double here.

Another way to look at it - I am just not threatening much with the open 5 point.  Too much work to do here.  Better to roll and look again later.

***************

Double / Take.  Now I roll 62.   How to play it?

is Mr X score: 0 pip: 134

9 point match

pip: 117 score: 4 is Bill Live

XGID=---Bb-E-CB--bC--ba-daba---:1:-1:1:62:4:0:0:9:10

to play 62

1.	XG Roller++	13/11 8/2	eq: +0.147
	Player: Opponent: 66.66% (G:5.47% B:0.37%) 33.34% (G:3.63% B:0.09%)
2.	XG Roller++	13/5	eq: -0.035 (-0.182)
	Player: Opponent: 62.15% (G:6.20% B:0.35%) 37.85% (G:7.19% B:0.15%)
3.	XG Roller+	8/2 3/1	eq: +0.171 (+0.024)
	Player: Opponent: 67.71% (G:3.30% B:0.07%) 32.29% (G:2.76% B:0.05%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I paid now with 13/5.   Have to leave a shot, might as well slot the best point available, especially while he has two blots in his board.

To be honest, I didn't see the relatively safe play 13/11, 8/2.  This leaves only an indirect while Mr X has two inner board blots.  Had I seen this play, I would have made it.  I suffer from this blindness often, probably at least once or twice per match.  Not good.

The computer play 8/2, 3/1 is one I don't feel bad about.  This seems like a "computer move."  We are trying to win the race, so who cares how silly the inner board looks like?  We aren't planning on hitting anyway.

*************

I lead 5 away 7 away.  51 to play.

is Mr X score: 2 pip: 145

9 point match

pip: 138 score: 4 is Bill Live

XGID=-aaB-BC-B---cE---c-bcb-A--:0:0:1:51:4:2:0:9:10

to play 51

1.	XG Roller++	23/22 13/8	eq: +0.010
	Player: Opponent: 53.05% (G:15.28% B:0.91%) 46.95% (G:14.74% B:0.36%)
2.	XG Roller++	13/8 6/5	eq: -0.055 (-0.065)
	Player: Opponent: 51.37% (G:14.31% B:0.71%) 48.63% (G:15.06% B:0.37%)
3.	3-ply	23/18 6/5	eq: -0.150 (-0.161)
	Player: Opponent: 50.46% (G:12.08% B:0.62%) 49.54% (G:16.66% B:0.43%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I moved 13/8, 6/5.  I figured I didn't want to step up with the ace into the attack zone.  After all, Mr X will only be too happy to hit loose on the 4 point.  Betterr to stay back, I thought, where at least if he attacks me it is on the deeper point he'd rather not make.

This is too cute.  Better is the straightforward 13/8, 23/22.  I want to escape my straggler and this step up prepares to launch next time.  It also guards the outfield a bit better though this is a minor detail. 

I show this play because this is the type of error I wouldn't have made a year or two ago.  Then I would look at the position simply - up in the race, race.  Let's go!  What are you waiting for?

Now, I am oerthinking things and overlooking the obvious.  Oh well, two steps forward, one step back I suppose.

************

Same game.  I lead 5 away 7 away and am on roll from the bar.  Cube action?

is Mr X score: 2 pip: 110

9 point match

pip: 33 score: 4 is Bill Live

XGID=-BCa----------a-aabcdb---A:0:0:1:00:4:2:0:9:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	65.85% (G:14.36% B:1.27%)	65.80% (G:14.44% B:1.31%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	34.15% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)	34.20% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.468	+0.930
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.524 (-0.102)	±0.010 (+0.514..+0.535)
Double/Take:	+0.626	±0.014 (+0.613..+0.640)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.374)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 1-ply
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 5.6 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I missed several small doubles in a row as I was getting closed out. I had in mind the following position.

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 57

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver

pip: 33 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=-BC----------------cccbbbA:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	58.08% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)	57.87% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	41.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)	42.13% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.162	+0.315
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.160	±0.006 (+0.153..+0.166)
Double/Take:	+0.002 (-0.158)	±0.009 (-0.007..+0.011)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.840)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 13.7%
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 1-ply
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Beaver Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 0.7 second

eXtreme Gammon Version:2.02

Here I thought I was about a 60/40 favorite. My mindset was basically I am never doubling until I escape, at which point I am likely just cashing the game.

Back to the match position.  The differences are:

1) I am not closed out yet.  My win chances are actually 65% since sometimes I don't get closed out.

2) And note I gammon Mr X about 14% of the time.  This may be the key.  Cubing now activates those odd gammons.

3) I get gammoned 0% of the time, as I have nine men off already.

*************

I lead 4 away 7 away and have 43 to play.

is Mr X score: 2 pip: 152

9 point match

pip: 157 score: 5 is Bill Live

XGID=-b---BCBB---bDa-bb-cc--AA-:0:0:1:43:5:2:0:9:10

to play 43

1.	XG Roller++	13/6	eq: +0.062
	Player: Opponent: 53.92% (G:16.94% B:1.07%) 46.08% (G:16.22% B:0.62%)
2.	XG Roller++	13/10 13/9	eq: +0.018 (-0.043)
	Player: Opponent: 54.22% (G:17.22% B:1.35%) 45.78% (G:18.92% B:1.30%)
3.	3-ply	24/21 13/9	eq: -0.050 (-0.112)
	Player: Opponent: 52.71% (G:15.70% B:1.12%) 47.29% (G:18.52% B:0.93%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I made the aggressive building play, 13/10, 13/9. Better is the conservative 13/6. Probably four blots is just too much to ask for this position, plus I give him 26, 36, 35, as great shots for free.

**********

Later in the same game. I am on shake from the air. Cube action?

is Mr X score: 2 pip: 150

9 point match

pip: 143 score: 5 is Bill Live

XGID=-c-B-BBBB-A-bB---b-bc-c-AA:0:0:1:00:5:2:0:9:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	72.07% (G:27.97% B:2.75%)	72.00% (G:28.39% B:2.88%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	27.93% (G:10.11% B:0.47%)	28.00% (G:9.96% B:0.48%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.730	+1.583
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.816 (-0.149)
Double/Take:	+0.965
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.035)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I missed a strong double here.  I was being too conservative with the lead.

I have a really strong position, with gammon chances to boot.  Meanwhile, Mr X is stuck with 3 men on the ace point on the verge of collapse.

Note at 4 away a gammon wins me the match so the G's are efficient.

For money this position is a solid pass (.10 whopper to take).

While at 3 away 7 away Stick's rule is in effect and it is no double by .30 !!


**************

I lead 2 away 7 away and have 63 to play.

is Mr X score: 2 pip: 159

9 point match

pip: 142 score: 7 is Bill Live

XGID=-Bb---C-C--BdD---d-da---A-:0:0:1:63:7:2:0:9:10

to play 63

1.	XG Roller+	24/15	eq: +0.230
	Player: Opponent: 60.95% (G:11.95% B:0.43%) 39.05% (G:8.50% B:0.20%)
2.	XG Roller+	11/5 8/5	eq: +0.155 (-0.075)
	Player: Opponent: 58.61% (G:16.41% B:0.61%) 41.39% (G:9.35% B:0.27%)
3.	3-ply	24/18 13/10	eq: +0.054 (-0.176)
	Player: Opponent: 56.97% (G:11.26% B:0.35%) 43.03% (G:10.63% B:0.30%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I made the 5 point. A rare case where this is wrong!! I was thinking we are not winning the game without the 5-point so let's just make it now. Escpaping is not urgent and we can run later.

The computer preferes running with 24/15. Gameplan. Up in the race, race. Therefore, run!! If we do escape, we should have plenty of opportunities to fill in the board later (apparently!).