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June 16, 2013

Practice match with Mr X - 2

I played another training match with Mr X yesterday.  Below are selected blunders from this live encounter.


Opening game of 11 point match. 55 to play.

is Mr X

score: 0
pip: 148
11 point match
                          pip: 144
score: 0

is Bill
to play 55

1.XG Roller++8/3(2) 6/1*(2) eq: +0.424
58.19% (G:22.48% B:0.89%)
41.81% (G:9.16% B:0.37%)
2.XG Roller++7/2(2) 6/1*(2) eq: +0.364 (-0.059)
57.04% (G:24.73% B:0.80%)
42.96% (G:10.62% B:0.53%)
3.XG Roller++15/10 13/8 6/1*(2) eq: +0.279 (-0.145)
55.03% (G:19.74% B:0.60%)
44.97% (G:9.82% B:0.39%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I moved 15/10, 13/8, 6/1(2).  This brings my man around into attack position should Mr X not anchor or hit me. 

But it violoates two key fundamentals from this position.

First, making a second inner point increases his dancing numbers from 4 to 9 - very important considersation here.  A dance and Mr X is screwed.

Second, it's almost always wrong to give the opponent good sixes from the bar in the early game.  In and a six hits me.

Perhaps a third fundamental would be once you've gone deep, commit to it.  I've made the ace point already so let's just do this thing.  It's too late to look pretty this game.


Later in the same game. A techincal play - how best to move these 33's?

is Mr X

score: 0
pip: 141
11 point match
                          pip: 143
score: 0

is Bill
to play 33

1.XG Roller++Bar/22 23/20 7/4*(2) eq: +0.330
63.53% (G:27.60% B:1.28%)
36.47% (G:9.78% B:0.53%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/22 10/4* 7/4eq: +0.316 (-0.014)
62.87% (G:27.29% B:1.27%)
37.13% (G:9.20% B:0.34%)
3.4-plyBar/22 13/10 7/4*(2) eq: +0.258 (-0.072)
60.57% (G:27.67% B:1.59%)
39.43% (G:10.09% B:0.52%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I played Bar/22, 7/4*(2) - obvious - plus 10/7 with the last 3.

The computer preferes Bar/22, 7/4*(2) - and 23/20 with the last 3.

A very small difference but it is interesting to figure out what is going on here.  Not sure I understand, but here goes:

  • Being on the duece point sucks.  "Always move the back checker"

  • This is about diversifing my numbers.  4's and 6's hit on his side of the board while 5's, 3's and 2's aim at the 5 point on my side of the board.

  • I don't really care about getting hit so much here.  Any non-double hit by Mr X will leave himself severely exposed elsewhere.

  • I am not trying to prime him - I am attacking.


 Later in the same game.  36 to play from the air.

is Mr X

score: 0
pip: 180
11 point match
                          pip: 158
score: 0

is Bill
to play 63

1.XG Roller++Bar/16eq: +0.170
57.51% (G:26.87% B:1.41%)
42.49% (G:10.07% B:0.48%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/22 16/10eq: +0.146 (-0.024)
56.23% (G:28.14% B:1.62%)
43.77% (G:10.68% B:0.57%)
3.3-plyBar/22 13/7eq: +0.086 (-0.084)
54.77% (G:26.89% B:1.59%)
45.23% (G:11.64% B:0.65%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I played Bar/22, 16/10.  Bringing more wood into the zone.

Computer suggests Bar/22, 22/16 instead. 

Again, not a terrible mistake but let's try to figure out why.  Once again, not entirely sure I know why, but here is my guess:

Attack is unlikely to succeed here.  Therefore I need to get my back guys into the game (outfield control)

I don't want to get my position too disconencted.  Where I am all offense, then suddenly Mr X Anchors and my back men are stranded.

So I am thinking my priorites were off - attacking is not my main game plan anymore since Mr X is about to anchor.


I trail 10 away 7 away and Mr X is on roll.  Cube action?

is Mr X

score: 4
pip: 135
11 point match
                          pip: 130
score: 1

is Bill
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 68.51% (G:26.63% B:0.71%) 68.66% (G:26.90% B:0.72%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 31.49% (G:6.31% B:0.23%) 31.34% (G:6.23% B:0.22%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.586 +1.160
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.703 (-0.089)
xg Double/Take:+0.792
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.208)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

This looked super scary and I dropped.

Let's start with the basics

  • Position - Large advantage Mr X.  I am totally undeveloped while he has an intimidating 5 prime.

  • Race - Close but slight advantage to me.

  • Threats - Any ace is great and Mr X will also hit with most 4's and also double 2's, and double 5's is a superjoker.

All in all, pretty scary but let's look at the virtues of this position.

  • Even if Mr X does hit the ace I may make an anchor and play from there.

  • Also he has three men to bring around.  Sometimes this could be difficult.

  • While my position is undeveloped I do have all my checkers in play so the potential to make structure later.

  • Oh, and Mr X might miss!! Also I am at the edge of the prime and may jump out immediately with a six.

The computer has it as a .06 take for money. Note trailing by 3 makes this a much larger take. My wins with a cube on 4 are very valuable.  So the match score has a big impact.

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