practice match with Mr X

Below are selected errors from a live practice match against Mr X.

************

9 away 9 away and I am on roll.  Cube action?

is Mr X score: 0 pip: 159

9 point match

pip: 170 score: 0 is Bill Live

XGID=---BaaC-CA-Ad--a-dBd--C---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:9:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller+	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	55.17% (G:20.32% B:1.09%)	54.92% (G:20.18% B:1.07%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	44.83% (G:11.12% B:0.43%)	45.08% (G:11.25% B:0.44%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.202	+0.401
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.301
Double/Take:	+0.070 (-0.231)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.699)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 19.9%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

Yes I made a ridiculous double here, almost a beaver.

I am down in the race, but have the better board, and some attacking chances.  Also, Mr X has not much of anything going.  I must have overemphasized the three blots plus 10 in the zone, combined with the fact that Mr X hasn't accomplished anything so far this game, so any recube will be a long time coming.

Still, objectively I have only a two point board, am way down in the race, and am not really threatening too much this roll.

***************

I am on roll I leading 5 away 9 away.  Cube action?

is Mr X score: 0 pip: 134

9 point match

pip: 117 score: 4 is Bill Live

XGID=---Bb-E-CB--bC--ba-daba---:0:0:1:00:4:0:0:9:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	70.01% (G:2.57% B:0.06%)	69.94% (G:2.54% B:0.05%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	29.99% (G:2.01% B:0.03%)	30.06% (G:1.95% B:0.03%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.406	+0.783
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.580
Double/Take:	+0.467 (-0.113)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.420)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 17.5%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

Another early double by me.

I am a solid 70/30 favorite as the computer shows.  The problem is Mr X is taking down to low 20's so I am just not close enough to the drop zone to justify a double here.

Another way to look at it - I am just not threatening much with the open 5 point.  Too much work to do here.  Better to roll and look again later.

***************

Double / Take.  Now I roll 62.   How to play it?

is Mr X score: 0 pip: 134

9 point match

pip: 117 score: 4 is Bill Live

XGID=---Bb-E-CB--bC--ba-daba---:1:-1:1:62:4:0:0:9:10

to play 62

1.	XG Roller++	13/11 8/2	eq: +0.147
	Player: Opponent: 66.66% (G:5.47% B:0.37%) 33.34% (G:3.63% B:0.09%)
2.	XG Roller++	13/5	eq: -0.035 (-0.182)
	Player: Opponent: 62.15% (G:6.20% B:0.35%) 37.85% (G:7.19% B:0.15%)
3.	XG Roller+	8/2 3/1	eq: +0.171 (+0.024)
	Player: Opponent: 67.71% (G:3.30% B:0.07%) 32.29% (G:2.76% B:0.05%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I paid now with 13/5.   Have to leave a shot, might as well slot the best point available, especially while he has two blots in his board.

To be honest, I didn't see the relatively safe play 13/11, 8/2.  This leaves only an indirect while Mr X has two inner board blots.  Had I seen this play, I would have made it.  I suffer from this blindness often, probably at least once or twice per match.  Not good.

The computer play 8/2, 3/1 is one I don't feel bad about.  This seems like a "computer move."  We are trying to win the race, so who cares how silly the inner board looks like?  We aren't planning on hitting anyway.

*************

I lead 5 away 7 away.  51 to play.

is Mr X score: 2 pip: 145

9 point match

pip: 138 score: 4 is Bill Live

XGID=-aaB-BC-B---cE---c-bcb-A--:0:0:1:51:4:2:0:9:10

to play 51

1.	XG Roller++	23/22 13/8	eq: +0.010
	Player: Opponent: 53.05% (G:15.28% B:0.91%) 46.95% (G:14.74% B:0.36%)
2.	XG Roller++	13/8 6/5	eq: -0.055 (-0.065)
	Player: Opponent: 51.37% (G:14.31% B:0.71%) 48.63% (G:15.06% B:0.37%)
3.	3-ply	23/18 6/5	eq: -0.150 (-0.161)
	Player: Opponent: 50.46% (G:12.08% B:0.62%) 49.54% (G:16.66% B:0.43%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I moved 13/8, 6/5.  I figured I didn't want to step up with the ace into the attack zone.  After all, Mr X will only be too happy to hit loose on the 4 point.  Betterr to stay back, I thought, where at least if he attacks me it is on the deeper point he'd rather not make.

This is too cute.  Better is the straightforward 13/8, 23/22.  I want to escape my straggler and this step up prepares to launch next time.  It also guards the outfield a bit better though this is a minor detail. 

I show this play because this is the type of error I wouldn't have made a year or two ago.  Then I would look at the position simply - up in the race, race.  Let's go!  What are you waiting for?

Now, I am oerthinking things and overlooking the obvious.  Oh well, two steps forward, one step back I suppose.

************

Same game.  I lead 5 away 7 away and am on roll from the bar.  Cube action?

is Mr X score: 2 pip: 110

9 point match

pip: 33 score: 4 is Bill Live

XGID=-BCa----------a-aabcdb---A:0:0:1:00:4:2:0:9:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	65.85% (G:14.36% B:1.27%)	65.80% (G:14.44% B:1.31%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	34.15% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)	34.20% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.468	+0.930
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.524 (-0.102)	±0.010 (+0.514..+0.535)
Double/Take:	+0.626	±0.014 (+0.613..+0.640)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.374)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 1-ply
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 5.6 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I missed several small doubles in a row as I was getting closed out. I had in mind the following position.

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 57

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver

pip: 33 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=-BC----------------cccbbbA:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	58.08% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)	57.87% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	41.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)	42.13% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.162	+0.315
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.160	±0.006 (+0.153..+0.166)
Double/Take:	+0.002 (-0.158)	±0.009 (-0.007..+0.011)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.840)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 13.7%
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 1-ply
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Beaver Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 0.7 second

eXtreme Gammon Version:2.02

Here I thought I was about a 60/40 favorite. My mindset was basically I am never doubling until I escape, at which point I am likely just cashing the game.

Back to the match position.  The differences are:

1) I am not closed out yet.  My win chances are actually 65% since sometimes I don't get closed out.

2) And note I gammon Mr X about 14% of the time.  This may be the key.  Cubing now activates those odd gammons.

3) I get gammoned 0% of the time, as I have nine men off already.

*************

I lead 4 away 7 away and have 43 to play.

is Mr X score: 2 pip: 152

9 point match

pip: 157 score: 5 is Bill Live

XGID=-b---BCBB---bDa-bb-cc--AA-:0:0:1:43:5:2:0:9:10

to play 43

1.	XG Roller++	13/6	eq: +0.062
	Player: Opponent: 53.92% (G:16.94% B:1.07%) 46.08% (G:16.22% B:0.62%)
2.	XG Roller++	13/10 13/9	eq: +0.018 (-0.043)
	Player: Opponent: 54.22% (G:17.22% B:1.35%) 45.78% (G:18.92% B:1.30%)
3.	3-ply	24/21 13/9	eq: -0.050 (-0.112)
	Player: Opponent: 52.71% (G:15.70% B:1.12%) 47.29% (G:18.52% B:0.93%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I made the aggressive building play, 13/10, 13/9. Better is the conservative 13/6. Probably four blots is just too much to ask for this position, plus I give him 26, 36, 35, as great shots for free.

**********

Later in the same game. I am on shake from the air. Cube action?

is Mr X score: 2 pip: 150

9 point match

pip: 143 score: 5 is Bill Live

XGID=-c-B-BBBB-A-bB---b-bc-c-AA:0:0:1:00:5:2:0:9:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	72.07% (G:27.97% B:2.75%)	72.00% (G:28.39% B:2.88%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	27.93% (G:10.11% B:0.47%)	28.00% (G:9.96% B:0.48%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.730	+1.583
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.816 (-0.149)
Double/Take:	+0.965
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.035)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I missed a strong double here.  I was being too conservative with the lead.

I have a really strong position, with gammon chances to boot.  Meanwhile, Mr X is stuck with 3 men on the ace point on the verge of collapse.

Note at 4 away a gammon wins me the match so the G's are efficient.

For money this position is a solid pass (.10 whopper to take).

While at 3 away 7 away Stick's rule is in effect and it is no double by .30 !!


**************

I lead 2 away 7 away and have 63 to play.

is Mr X score: 2 pip: 159

9 point match

pip: 142 score: 7 is Bill Live

XGID=-Bb---C-C--BdD---d-da---A-:0:0:1:63:7:2:0:9:10

to play 63

1.	XG Roller+	24/15	eq: +0.230
	Player: Opponent: 60.95% (G:11.95% B:0.43%) 39.05% (G:8.50% B:0.20%)
2.	XG Roller+	11/5 8/5	eq: +0.155 (-0.075)
	Player: Opponent: 58.61% (G:16.41% B:0.61%) 41.39% (G:9.35% B:0.27%)
3.	3-ply	24/18 13/10	eq: +0.054 (-0.176)
	Player: Opponent: 56.97% (G:11.26% B:0.35%) 43.03% (G:10.63% B:0.30%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I made the 5 point. A rare case where this is wrong!! I was thinking we are not winning the game without the 5-point so let's just make it now. Escpaping is not urgent and we can run later.

The computer preferes running with 24/15. Gameplan. Up in the race, race. Therefore, run!! If we do escape, we should have plenty of opportunities to fill in the board later (apparently!).