Rockwell Rd 2

Below are selected errors from my second round match against David Rockwell from Cleveland.


1)  score is 7 away 7 away and I have 54 to play.

is David Rockwell score: 4 pip: 139

11 point match

pip: 135 score: 4 is Bill

XGID=---a-aEBC---bCB--cbe--a---:0:0:1:54:4:4:0:11:10

to play 54

1.	XG Roller++	14/9 13/9	eq: +0.612
	Player: Opponent: 66.15% (G:11.02% B:0.49%) 33.85% (G:5.79% B:0.18%)
2.	XG Roller++	8/3* 7/3	eq: +0.465 (-0.147)
	Player: Opponent: 61.91% (G:14.17% B:0.54%) 38.09% (G:6.70% B:0.23%)
3.	XG Roller++	13/8 6/2	eq: +0.402 (-0.210)
	Player: Opponent: 62.06% (G:6.57% B:0.17%) 37.94% (G:4.21% B:0.09%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

This one I don't understand.

I made the quiet play. 13/8, 6/2. Up in the race, race. Sit tight and hope for a better roll next time.

The computer likes 14/9, 13/9. Probably what's going on is this position doesn't age well. I am stacked and stripped after my play while Rockwwell rates to improve. Better to do something constructive (disengage my backmost point while making a new point) while David only has a one point board.


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2) Score is 6 away 5 away and David doubles. Take or Drop?

is David Rockwell score: 6 pip: 127

11 point match

pip: 166 score: 5 is Bill

XGID=-a---BCAC---eC---a-bAbbbB-:0:0:-1:00:5:6:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	62.73% (G:30.82% B:4.11%)	63.01% (G:30.97% B:4.19%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	37.27% (G:7.03% B:0.30%)	36.99% (G:6.99% B:0.32%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.521	+1.118
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.650 (-0.044)
Double/Take:	+0.695
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.305)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

This position looks really really scary.  sixes, threes, eights all hit.  Lots of gammon potential.  I dropped.

 According to the computer this is only a small double.  Looking at the positives:

• I am anchored
• I am not on the bar yet
• I have a decent offense already assembled (including the made 5 point)
• While I get gammoned a lot, there are lots of ways to win this game too

Something Neilkaz wrote today on the forums applies here, "Gammonphobia combined with Blotphobia strikes again."

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3) I trail 6 away 4 away and have 21 to play.

is David Rockwell score: 7 pip: 108

11 point match

pip: 107 score: 5 is Bill

XGID=-CABBaC-----bB---bbbc-Bba-:0:0:1:21:5:7:0:11:10

to play 21

1.	XG Roller++	6/5* 5/3	eq: -0.518
	Player: Opponent: 37.10% (G:8.52% B:0.09%) 62.90% (G:14.91% B:0.50%)
2.	XG Roller++	4/3 4/2	eq: -0.762 (-0.244)
	Player: Opponent: 31.38% (G:3.36% B:0.03%) 68.62% (G:10.26% B:0.27%)
3.	2-ply	6/4 3/2	eq: -0.701 (-0.183)
	Player: Opponent: 31.95% (G:4.79% B:0.03%) 68.05% (G:11.40% B:0.20%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

This one is embarassing.  I moved 4/3, 4/2.  I must have figures I had racing chances so my strategy was to just sit tight and jump out later with a good roll.

However, my only asset in this position is my temporarily better board.  I need to put it to use with an immediate hit.  6/5*/3 is represents my best chance to win.   I hope to scramble around the board while David dances for a while.  A bit of a long shot, but possible.  My play just prepares to die on the 3 point - in fact I dropped just two rolls later.  Hopeless.

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4) I trail 6 away 3 away.  65 to play.

is David Rockwell score: 8 pip: 133

11 point match

pip: 114 score: 5 is Bill

XGID=--ABbCBBB---bB---bcbb-bA--:0:0:1:65:5:8:0:11:10

to play 65

1.	XG Roller++	7/2 7/1	eq: -0.407
	Player: Opponent: 35.01% (G:8.19% B:0.15%) 64.99% (G:11.66% B:0.45%)
2.	XG Roller++	8/3 8/2	eq: -0.433 (-0.027)
	Player: Opponent: 34.69% (G:7.48% B:0.14%) 65.31% (G:10.69% B:0.39%)
3.	XG Roller++	13/8 13/7	eq: -0.491 (-0.084)
	Player: Opponent: 32.78% (G:7.63% B:0.17%) 67.22% (G:7.83% B:0.25%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I kept the four point block with 13/7, 13/8.

Apparently I need the connectivity with my back man, and to keep David honest in the outfield.  Thus, 7/2,7/1 is the play.

My play just gives David too much of a free hand to do what he wants next time.  Big numbers escape his anchor from behind my four prime while smaller numbers David simply plays off the midpoint to contain my back runner.