Karen Davis

Below are selected error from a match against Karen Davis in Cleveland.


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1) I lead 7 away 9 away and am on roll.  Cube action?

is Karen Davis score: 0 pip: 148

9 point match

pip: 118 score: 2 is Bill

XGID=a-B-BCBbB---cC---b-cb--bA-:0:0:1:00:2:0:0:9:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	70.56% (G:31.01% B:0.41%)	70.41% (G:30.90% B:0.45%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	29.44% (G:5.22% B:0.16%)	29.59% (G:5.30% B:0.15%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.679	+1.352
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.867 (-0.133)
Double/Take:	+1.034 (+0.034)
Double/Pass:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I misjudged this one.  I was thinking this was No double.  I figured I need to escape before I am threatening anything.  But the position is deceptive.  The 70/30 wins makes it look a holding game but being on the bar against a 4 point board spells gammons.  As you can see, Karen gets gammoned 30% of the time.

If Karen dances for a while, which could happen, this is really bad.  But most likely Karen comes in after a turn or two but her checker is loose back in my board.  I hit loose and she either performs or gets gammoned.  This is the problem, and why is a drop already.

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2) I lead 5 away 9 away.  21 to play.

is Karen Davis score: 0 pip: 139

9 point match

pip: 161 score: 4 is Bill

XGID=-a----E-E---bBb--bce-B-A--:0:0:1:21:4:0:0:9:10

to play 21

1.	XG Roller++	23/21 6/5	eq: -0.736
	Player: Opponent: 33.75% (G:6.02% B:0.19%) 66.25% (G:13.28% B:0.35%)
2.	XG Roller++	8/5	eq: -0.818 (-0.082)
	Player: Opponent: 33.40% (G:6.46% B:0.21%) 66.60% (G:16.47% B:0.52%)
3.	XG Roller++	8/7 6/4	eq: -0.833 (-0.098)
	Player: Opponent: 34.35% (G:6.58% B:0.23%) 65.65% (G:18.82% B:0.66%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

What an ugly position.  I was tempted to try the real big 6/5, 6/4 or 8/7, 6/4 but decided on 8/5 instead.

I was thinking down in the race I should stay back, and if I get hit I might form a second anchor in her home board.

The computer recommends 23/21, 6/5.  I am so brittle I don't have spares anywhere.  Probably I need this back man to pop out next time just so I can hold the position (especially the midpoint).  Karen only has a one-point board so this game isn't over no matter what happens.


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3) later in the same game.  I own the cube.  54 to play.

is Karen Davis score: 0 pip: 124

9 point match

pip: 144 score: 4 is Bill

XGID=-a--BBC-D--A--b--cbebB-A--:1:1:1:54:4:0:0:9:10

to play 54

1.	XG Roller++	8/4 6/1*	eq: -0.223
	Player: Opponent: 40.09% (G:8.83% B:0.16%) 59.91% (G:12.98% B:0.53%)
2.	XG Roller++	11/6 8/4	eq: -0.288 (-0.065)
	Player: Opponent: 35.37% (G:6.42% B:0.14%) 64.63% (G:8.74% B:0.32%)
3.	3-ply	11/7 6/1*	eq: -0.262 (-0.039)
	Player: Opponent: 39.63% (G:8.47% B:0.21%) 60.37% (G:15.27% B:0.56%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I held tight with 11/6, 8/4.  The problem with this play is it gives Karen a free chance to roll an escaping six.  A good variation for me is Karen doesn't get out and then I hit loose next time...

So let's just hit now.  8/4, 6/1*.  My position is pretty desperate so I should just go for it now.

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4) I lead 5 away 7 away and am on roll.  Cube action?

is Karen Davis score: 2 pip: 135

9 point match

pip: 133 score: 4 is Bill

XGID=a-aBbBBBC-A----A--Abcc-cA-:1:1:1:00:4:2:0:9:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	79.49% (G:21.04% B:0.91%)	79.74% (G:21.26% B:1.05%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	20.51% (G:3.78% B:0.10%)	20.26% (G:3.80% B:0.11%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.785	+1.298
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.947 (-0.053)
Redouble/Take:	+1.017 (+0.017)
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

In my opinion this is a difficult doubling window to find.  Karen has a lowish takepoint at this score - 14% according to my chart.  At the same time redoubling cripples my gammons (they are almost worthless).  So my conclusion is to look for a double out rather than a double in.

Thus the question is, is this a drop or not?  As I wrote above my mindset was never cube ... I am playing for the gammon and if thinks go bad I can try to double out much later.  That said, I don't understand why this is a pass if Karen's win chances are 21%.  Didn't I just say the takepoint was 14%??

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5) DMP.  62 to play.  slot or not?

is Karen Davis score: 8 pip: 159

9 point match

pip: 88 score: 8 is Bill

XGID=-c-BBCBBCA--b----cabbb----:0:0:1:62:8:8:0:9:10

to play 62

1.	XG Roller++	9/3 8/6	eq: +0.550
	Player: Opponent: 77.52% (G:35.85% B:3.69%) 22.48% (G:0.84% B:0.04%)
2.	XG Roller++	9/7 8/2	eq: +0.518 (-0.032)
	Player: Opponent: 75.91% (G:35.04% B:3.94%) 24.09% (G:1.80% B:0.08%)
3.	3-ply	8/2 5/3	eq: +0.517 (-0.033)
	Player: Opponent: 75.87% (G:34.59% B:3.77%) 24.13% (G:1.79% B:0.06%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I went for it with 9/7, 8/6.  Getting hit is bad, but the coffin isn't quite nailed shut yet, and I have a six prime for the time being, so I could still win.

On the other hand, Karen would be jumping for joy if she hits.  Maybe that should be my gauge?  Too much risk for too little gain I suppose.  The stingy 9/3, 8/6 is a tad better per the computer.