Julius High

Below are selected errors from my match against Julius High in Cleveland.  Unfortunately Julius has only only been able to provide me with a portion of the match.  These positions cover the first several games only.


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1) First game of 9 point match.  Cube Action?

is Julius High score: 0 pip: 139

9 point match

pip: 127 score: 0 is Bill Calton

XGID=-aB-BaCBA---cC---bBdb-b---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:9:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	64.01% (G:24.71% B:0.51%)	64.08% (G:25.28% B:0.52%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	35.99% (G:9.31% B:0.34%)	35.92% (G:9.42% B:0.35%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.435	+0.906
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.597 (-0.043)
Double/Take:	+0.640
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.360)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I rolled.  Computer gives this as a clear double.  Let's take a quick look at PRAT.

Julius has the better board but I am anchored and he isn't.  (POSITION about even)

I am up in the race (a modest RACE lead)

but the key is the position is volatile and gammonish. (Big time THREATS)

Most likely I hit loose or hit two (point on him if lucky) when Julius is under pressure to perform from the bar.  The position is an easy take of course, since Julius has plenty of ways to win this game.  The big sin is to win a gammon with the cube on one (which is actually what happened).

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2) Same game.  53 to play.

is Julius High score: 0 pip: 145

9 point match

pip: 103 score: 0 is Bill Calton

XGID=bAB-CBBAA---cA---bBdb-b---:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:9:10

to play 53

1.	XG Roller++	18/13 4/1	eq: +1.538
	Player: Opponent: 88.68% (G:73.59% B:0.61%) 11.32% (G:1.96% B:0.14%)
2.	XG Roller++	13/8 4/1	eq: +1.506 (-0.031)
	Player: Opponent: 87.70% (G:71.72% B:0.59%) 12.30% (G:1.91% B:0.11%)
3.	3-ply	8/3 4/1	eq: +1.383 (-0.154)
	Player: Opponent: 82.50% (G:65.75% B:0.64%) 17.50% (G:4.38% B:0.27%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I moved 13/8, 4/1.  This covers the blot and brings another man around to complete the closeout.

Certainly a reasonable move, but a small technical error.  Better is 18/13, 4/1.  Julius counseled me on such positions.  He observes the key is whether the extra builder is diversified or not.  Here the extra man lands on top of my 8 point.  So even though this is an extra man, it's not a diversified or effective builder for the 3 point.  Therefore, it's slightly better to scramble the last man home as this is slightly better achievement for one roll.  The anti-joker 33 could be trouble down the line.

If the spare moved the 9 point (say with a 43) then bringing the builder down would be right. 

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3) I lead 7 away 5 away.  own the cube and have this 26 from the bar.

is Julius High score: 4 pip: 67

9 point match

pip: 119 score: 2 is Bill Calton

XGID=-BBABBB--A------a--cdcbBbA:1:1:1:62:2:4:0:9:10

to play 62

1.	XG Roller++	Bar/17	eq: -0.966
	Player: Opponent: 10.47% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 89.53% (G:20.19% B:0.62%)
2.	XG Roller++	Bar/23 9/3	eq: -1.048 (-0.082)
	Player: Opponent: 7.74% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 92.26% (G:21.28% B:0.61%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I made the board.  Bar/23, 9/3.  I make the board and don't want to get hit.  The problem is I am under immediate pressure to roll a 5 or 6 next turn.  The problem is this happens on 16 total rolls!!

Note this happens more often than I get hit by popping out with Bar/17.  I get 11 times immediately versus the 16 times I bust so popping out is actually relatively safer!!

Clearly popping out is the DMP play but the gammons are only a tiny bit higher.  This is perhaps the big eye-opener of the position.  It looks scary to volunteer a direct shot but we only get gammoned 1% more often.

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4) I trail 7 away 3 away and own the cube.  Cube action?

is Julius High score: 6 pip: 113

9 point match

pip: 168 score: 2 is Bill Calton

XGID=---BbaCBC---------AcccDc--:1:1:1:00:2:6:0:9:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	50.43% (G:11.30% B:0.44%)	50.57% (G:11.36% B:0.47%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	49.57% (G:23.78% B:0.75%)	49.43% (G:23.88% B:0.72%)
Cubeless Equities	-0.024	+0.673
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.612 (-0.061)
Redouble/Take:	+0.673
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.327)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Julius has violated Stick's rule for 3 away 6 away or more. Namely "never double with contact." The proper doubling window for the leader is very difficult to find. You are better off trying to win an undoubled gammon or to simply double the opponent out from a winning position.

The reasons are:

1) leader cripples his own gammons (a gamon wins four points when only three is needed to win, thus creating overage). Leader's gammon value is only about .35 at this score.

2) trailer has tremendous cube leverage. Trailer should be looking any excuse to send a recube. reasons:

a) Leader's gammons are killed. A single loss or doubled loss loses the match either way.

b) Leader holds a dead cube. He can never redouble you out and must get all the way to 100%. Sometimes you turn around a hopeless game late that you would otherwise lose at a normal score since opponent can't double you out.

c) Trailer's gammons are now quite valuable. A lucky gammon now scores 8 points and suddenly wins you the match!!

Looking at the computer's Cube Information function, it appears the doubling window opens at about 40% and closes at 70% (Not adjusting for gammons). So Julius has an elevated take point of 30%. Once again, this doesn't factor in the gammons.

In this position I am already about 50/50 with 11% gammons and as you can see, this is a powerful recube. The lessons...

1) You can take deep as the Trailer at a lopsided score

2) If you take you MUST recube aggressively to get full value out of the take!

3) My own "rule of thumb" for these lopsided scores is to think about the recube nce you get to about 50/50 game. Too bad I didn't follow this advice on this game.

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5) Next roll of the same game.  Cube action?

is Julius High score: 6 pip: 113

9 point match

pip: 164 score: 2 is Bill Calton

XGID=---BcBBBB---------AcccDba-:1:1:1:00:2:6:0:9:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	60.54% (G:14.52% B:0.56%)	60.94% (G:14.85% B:0.63%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	39.46% (G:15.74% B:0.36%)	39.06% (G:16.22% B:0.34%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.275	+1.208
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.908 (-0.092)
Redouble/Take:	+1.208 (+0.208)
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

OK so there isn't too much drama on this one. Given my writing above we know this is a double. I blew it by not doubling.

I included the position to demonstrate that this position is already a drop according to the computer!!

If I understand the computer correctly, then with a four cube the trailers gammon value is 1.0 while the leaders takepoint is 30%

So from the leaders point of view, Julius would need 30% + 2 x my gammons. So Julius would need 30% + 28% of 58% to take and he is way short of that here. I wonder if I made a mistake on this since 58% seems an absurdly high takepoint and the take error, while large, is only .20. Oh well, math is not my bag, baby.