Reply Rolls Revisited - Aces

I wanted to share some old notes I made on reply rolls.   The content will be similar to my historical posts on my blog, but are organized a bit differently.  Note it is possible a few of the replies may not actually be best.  Reason is some plays were close and I picked the one that made the most sense to me at the time.  Also, these notes are several years old and the technically best play may have changed recently. 

My main purpose was in constructing a narrative or reason why I was making the various plays, as well as simply trying to just remember them.  Hopefully you will find them useful.

The first batch regards how to play your reply rolls with ace (except 31). 

Enjoy

Bill

Reply Rolls – Aces (1-1, 2-1, 4-1, 5-1, 6-1)

---

1-1.

Normal reply is 8/7(2), 6/5(2)

a) 6/4(2)*. Point on head if splits to your four point with 32S or 43Z.

b) 24/22, 6/5(2) If opponent splits with an ace or deuce. Don’t leave a direct shot on the 8-point.

c) 24/20* hitting is correct against 41 Slot (but not 21 Slot). 21$ - 24/20* at GS

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 164

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver

pip: 167 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=-b----E-C---dEa--c-da---B-:0:0:1:11:0:0:3:0:10

to play 11

1.	Book1	8/7(2) 6/5(2)	eq: +0.147
	Player: Opponent: 53.51% (G:16.00% B:1.04%) 46.49% (G:14.20% B:0.85%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.139...+0.155) - [100.0%]
2.	Book1	24/20*	eq: +0.106 (-0.042)
	Player: Opponent: 51.96% (G:15.78% B:1.13%) 48.04% (G:12.26% B:0.62%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.095...+0.116) - [0.0%]
3.	Book2	24/22 6/5(2)	eq: +0.104 (-0.043)
	Player: Opponent: 52.75% (G:15.00% B:0.83%) 47.25% (G:14.25% B:0.58%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.097...+0.112) - [0.0%]
1 Generated by Neil Kazaross on 3/26/2010 using eXtreme Gammon 1.13 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: Random Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply 2 Generated by GameSite 2000, Ltd on 2/26/2011 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 77390818 Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply Red

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

The plays are close in both cases. The difference has to do with how opponent's sixes play.

If we hit after 21 Slot, then the opponent's entering sixes from the bar play well. (He will hit back on his 5-point and continue to fight for this key point).

If we hit after 41 Slot, then the opponent's entering sixes from the bar are now bad rolls.

So it turns out that hitting with 24/20* is correct by a small margin against 41 Slot.

And 8/7(2), 6/5(2) is correct by a small margin against 21 Slot.

d) 24/22, 6/5(2)* against 54 split and 43 split. (good to split when opponent on bar or when loose blot in outfield)

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 158

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver

pip: 167 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=-a---aE-C---dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:11:0:0:3:0:10

to play 11

1.	Book1	24/22 6/5*(2)	eq: +0.358
	Player: Opponent: 58.16% (G:17.15% B:0.90%) 41.84% (G:10.05% B:0.53%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.354...+0.363) - [99.3%]
2.	Book1	8/7(2) 6/5*(2)	eq: +0.351 (-0.008)
	Player: Opponent: 57.86% (G:17.80% B:0.94%) 42.14% (G:10.84% B:0.64%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.346...+0.355) - [0.7%]
3.	Book2	24/23 6/5*(3)	eq: +0.318 (-0.040)
	Player: Opponent: 57.28% (G:17.21% B:0.74%) 42.72% (G:10.89% B:0.47%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.311...+0.325) - [0.0%]
1 Generated by Ken Bame on 10/20/2009 using eXtreme Gammon 1.04 36288 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. using 21 dice rotation Dice Seed: 1 Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply 2 Generated by GameSite 2000, Ltd on 2/26/2011 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 77390818 Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply Red

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

24/22. 6/5(2)* came out on top.

Most significant was I learned some more early game guidelines ....

MOTIVATION to split is less with a fourth guy on the 8-point.
MOTIVATION to split is more with a loose blot on the outfield.
It is a great time to split when opponent is on the bar.

e) 24/22, 6/5(2) against 31 point to fight against gathering prime (but not 42 point).

Against 42 Point, Making two points with 8/7(2), 6/5(2) is the better play but it's close.

Against 31 Point, Splitting with 24/22, 6/5(2) is the better play.

The reason is the priming threat.

After 4-2 point, the priming threat is real but not quite dangerous enough to necessitate a split. (There is a gap on the 5-point after all)

After 3-1 point, the priming threat needs to be immediately respected and splitting is correct.

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 161

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver

pip: 167 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=-b----E-C---eE---b-d-b--B-:0:0:1:11:0:0:3:0:10

to play 11

1.	Book1	8/7(2) 6/5(2)	eq: +0.063
	Player: Opponent: 51.83% (G:15.27% B:0.90%) 48.17% (G:15.24% B:1.00%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.054...+0.072) - [99.6%]
2.	Book1	24/22 6/5(2)	eq: +0.046 (-0.017)
	Player: Opponent: 51.49% (G:14.07% B:0.76%) 48.51% (G:14.11% B:0.73%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.038...+0.055) - [0.4%]
3.	Book2	24/23 6/5(3)	eq: +0.018 (-0.045)
	Player: Opponent: 50.79% (G:14.50% B:0.67%) 49.21% (G:15.34% B:0.68%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.008...+0.028) - [0.0%]
1 Generated by Ken Bame on 10/20/2009 using eXtreme Gammon 1.04 9072 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. using 21 dice rotation Dice Seed: 1 Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply 2 Generated by GameSite 2000, Ltd on 2/26/2011 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 77390818 Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply Red

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

---

2-1:

Slot on first roll with 13/11, 6/5. Generally slot when behind and split when ahead at most match scores.

Preferred reply is also to slot, but there are many exceptions. Note the preferred play may not be the most common.

David Rockwell explains the logic behind 21$ as follows: general principle - slot when behind in race, split when ahead. You are always behind with 2-1 reply roll. So, generally right to slot unless:

1. your opponent has split the back checkers (too many shots)
2. your opponent has made an inner board point.(adverse to a hitting contest while out-boarded and need to get the back checkers moving to counter the priming threat)

·       Preferred reply 13/11, 6/5 applies in these situations.

o   Opponent makes bad point. 61P or 64P

o   Opponent brings two checkers down. 32D, 52D, 43D, 54D

o   Counterslot if don’t hit on 21$, 41$, 51$, 62$

o   Slot versus 65R.

·       Hit if you can when opponent runs:

o   13/10* in response to 6-3 run

o   24/23, 13/11* in response to 6-4 run

·       Hit when opponent splits to an advanced anchor:

o   13/11, 8/7* when opponent splits to bar with 62S or 63S. Kit Woolsey principle. If hit with the ace, bring another checker down from the midpoint to strengthen he midpoint. Also, the 8-point is stripped and you don’t really want to cover with the next ace.

 

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 158

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver

pip: 167 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=-a----EaC---dE-a-c-e----B-:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10

to play 21

1.	Book1	13/11 8/7*	eq: -0.122
	Player: Opponent: 47.41% (G:13.50% B:0.66%) 52.59% (G:16.16% B:1.05%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.126...-0.117) - [100.0%]
2.	Book1	24/22 8/7*	eq: -0.132 (-0.010)
	Player: Opponent: 46.94% (G:12.65% B:0.57%) 53.06% (G:15.26% B:0.74%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.136...-0.128) - [0.0%]
3.	Book2	8/7* 7/5	eq: -0.195 (-0.073)
	Player: Opponent: 45.62% (G:12.42% B:0.56%) 54.38% (G:16.46% B:0.98%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.201...-0.189) - [0.0%]
1 Generated by Christopher Yep on 5/3/2012 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00 20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 31206198 Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply 2 Generated by Christopher Yep on 5/3/2012 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 31206198 Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

·       24/22, 8/7* when opponent splits to bar with 6-4. I think the reason for 24/22 is to force a confrontation with the six-away blot on the 9-point

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 157

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver

pip: 167 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=-a----EaC---dE--ac-e----B-:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10

to play 21

1.	Book1	13/11 8/7*	eq: -0.131
	Player: Opponent: 47.25% (G:13.17% B:0.64%) 52.75% (G:16.48% B:1.04%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.134...-0.127) - [55.9%]
2.	Book1	24/22 8/7*	eq: -0.131 (0.000)
	Player: Opponent: 47.04% (G:12.43% B:0.57%) 52.96% (G:15.38% B:0.73%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.134...-0.128) - [44.1%]
3.	Book2	8/7* 7/5	eq: -0.196 (-0.066)
	Player: Opponent: 45.53% (G:11.98% B:0.50%) 54.47% (G:16.70% B:1.02%)
1 Generated by Neil Kazaross on 8/25/2010 using eXtreme Gammon 1.21 46656 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 59298619 Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply 2 Generated by GameSite 2000, Ltd on 2/26/2011 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00 Analyzed in XG Roller++

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

·       Other

o   13/11, 6/5* when opponent splits to 5-point with 43S or 54S. Note 13/11 gives you direct 6’s to cover.

o   24/23, 6/4*when opponent splits to 4 point with 32S or 43Z

o   24/22, 6/5* when opponent plays the unusual slot and spli 4-1S

 

·       Split with 24/23, 13/11 against several rolls.

o   Opponent makes a good inner point. 31P, 42P, 53P

o   Opponent splits and you can’t hit. 41S, 51S, 52S, 21S

·        21U (Extended split 24/21) is best against the rarely played 62R

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 159

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver

pip: 167 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=-a----E-Ca--eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10

to play 21

1.	Book1	24/21	eq: -0.209
	Player: Opponent: 44.67% (G:10.97% B:0.40%) 55.33% (G:13.03% B:0.58%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.216...-0.202) - [100.0%]
2.	Book1	24/22 6/5	eq: -0.234 (-0.025)
	Player: Opponent: 44.52% (G:11.38% B:0.44%) 55.48% (G:15.65% B:0.77%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.241...-0.227) - [0.0%]
3.	Book1	24/23 24/22	eq: -0.236 (-0.028)
	Player: Opponent: 43.90% (G:10.70% B:0.38%) 56.10% (G:13.12% B:0.55%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.243...-0.230) - [0.0%]
1 Generated by GameSite 2000, Ltd on 2/26/2011 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 77390818 Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply Red

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

---

4-1:

Split on the Opening Roll (41S).

Splitting is rarely correct as a reply roll. Lots of variations on this play.

a) Split with 24/23, 13/9

1. when opponent makes a point. 31P, 42P, 53P, 61P. (impossible against 64P)

2. when opponent reverse splits with 32Z

b) Slot with 13/9, 6/5 when:

1. Opponent brings two down. 32D, 43D, 52D, 54D (Reference Rockwell principle)

 

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 160

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver

pip: 167 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=-b----E-C---cEa--d-e----B-:0:0:1:41:0:0:3:0:10

to play 41

1.	Book1	13/9 6/5	eq: -0.126
	Player: Opponent: 47.69% (G:13.60% B:0.65%) 52.31% (G:17.39% B:1.28%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.134...-0.118) - [100.0%]
2.	Book1	24/23 13/9	eq: -0.169 (-0.042)
	Player: Opponent: 46.28% (G:13.16% B:0.64%) 53.72% (G:16.73% B:0.83%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.176...-0.162) - [0.0%]
3.	Book2	13/8	eq: -0.205 (-0.078)
	Player: Opponent: 45.35% (G:12.02% B:0.49%) 54.65% (G:16.33% B:0.86%)
1 Generated by GameSite 2000, Ltd on 2/26/2011 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 77390818 Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply Red 2 Generated by GameSite 2000, Ltd on 2/26/2011 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00 Analyzed in XG Roller++

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

2. Opponent runs and you miss. 63R, 64R, 65R. (Reference Rockwell principle)

3. Split is impossible (against 64P)

 

c) Hit when you can:

1. 24/23, 13/9*when opponent runs to outfield (62R)

2. 24/20*, 24/23 when opponent slots 5-point and you hit.(21$, 41$, 51$, 62$)

d) Hit loose and come down from midpoint when opponent splits to the 5-point or the bar

1. 13/9, 6/5* against 43S, 54S

2. 13/9, 8/7* against 62S, 63S, 64S (Reference Woolsey principle) (Money game, GS, DMP nem!?)

e) Hit and Split with 8/4*, 24/23 when opponent splits to the 4-point (32S, 43Z)

f) Hit two checkers when opponent splits with an ace. (There is nothing better)

1. 6/2*/1* versus 21S

2. 6/5*/1* versus 41S and 51S

g) Also hit two (8/5*, 8/4*) against European split (24/20, 24/21)

h) the beginner play 13/8 is correct against 52S

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 160

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver

pip: 167 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=-a-a--E-C---dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:41:0:0:3:0:10

to play 41

1.	Book1	13/8	eq: -0.182
	Player: Opponent: 45.77% (G:11.56% B:0.44%) 54.23% (G:15.04% B:0.74%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.185...-0.180) - [100.0%]
2.	Book1	24/23 24/20	eq: -0.191 (-0.008)
	Player: Opponent: 45.62% (G:10.60% B:0.45%) 54.38% (G:14.56% B:0.57%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.193...-0.188) - [0.0%]
3.	Book2	8/3*	eq: -0.233 (-0.051)
	Player: Opponent: 44.94% (G:12.21% B:0.47%) 55.06% (G:17.00% B:1.10%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.241...-0.226) - [0.0%]
1 Generated by Neil Kazaross on 10/6/2010 using eXtreme Gammon 1.21 46656 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 60532124 Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply 2 Generated by GameSite 2000, Ltd on 2/26/2011 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 77390818 Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply Red

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

---

5-1:

 

Split on Opening Roll, 13/8, 24/23.

Split is also the most common opening reply. Note that Running (24/18) and hitting two(8/7*, 6/1*) is never right.

a) Split with 24/23, 13/8 under these circumstances

1. Opponent Makes a point. 31P, 42P, 53P, 61P. (Impossible to split against 64P)

2. Opponent splits and you miss. 21S, 41S, 51S, 32Z, 52S, 32S, 43Z

3. Opponent slots with 21$ and you miss.

4. Opponent runs with 62R and you miss

b) Slot with 13/8, 6/5 in these cases

1. Counterslot when you miss these slots. 41$, 51$, 62$ (idea is you can play big on your side of the board when opponent has work to do on his side of the board)

2. Slot when opponent brings two down. 32D, 43D, 52D, 54D (Rockwell principle)

 

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 160

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver

pip: 167 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=-b----E-C---cE-aac-e----B-:0:0:1:51:0:0:3:0:10

to play 51

1.	Book1	13/8 6/5	eq: -0.203
	Player: Opponent: 45.88% (G:12.70% B:0.68%) 54.12% (G:18.35% B:1.16%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.211...-0.195) - [100.0%]
2.	Book1	24/23 13/8	eq: -0.224 (-0.021)
	Player: Opponent: 45.09% (G:12.10% B:0.63%) 54.91% (G:18.15% B:0.78%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.231...-0.217) - [0.0%]
3.	Book1	24/18	eq: -0.239 (-0.036)
	Player: Opponent: 45.23% (G:11.75% B:0.64%) 54.77% (G:19.28% B:0.76%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.246...-0.231) - [0.0%]
1 Generated by GameSite 2000, Ltd on 2/26/2011 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 77390818 Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply Red

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

3. Slot on 64P since there is nothing better.

4. Slot when opponent runs and you miss. 63R, 64R, 65R. (When behind in the race, less to lose from slotting. Note slotting is more right versus 64R than 63R because you are further behind)

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 158

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver

pip: 167 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=-a----E-C-a-eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:51:0:0:3:0:10

to play 51

1.	Book1	24/23 13/8	eq: -0.191
	Player: Opponent: 44.93% (G:11.41% B:0.50%) 55.07% (G:12.93% B:0.70%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.194...-0.188) - [100.0%]
2.	Book1	13/8 6/5	eq: -0.206 (-0.015)
	Player: Opponent: 44.85% (G:11.59% B:0.54%) 55.15% (G:14.02% B:0.93%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.209...-0.202) - [0.0%]
3.	Book2	24/18	eq: -0.219 (-0.028)
	Player: Opponent: 44.59% (G:9.54% B:0.44%) 55.41% (G:12.89% B:0.67%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.225...-0.213) - [0.0%]
1 Generated by Ken Bame on 3/4/2010 using eXtreme Gammon 1.12 62208 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: Random Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply 2 Generated by Ken Bame on 3/4/2010 using eXtreme Gammon 1.12 15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: Random Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

** sidenote ** apparently my advice to slot against 63R and 65R is wrong.  Perhaps is better to always split when opponent runs and you miss?

 

c) Hit with 13/8, 6/5* when opponent splits to the 5-point and you hit. 43S, 54S, 43U,

d) Hit with 13/7* when opponent splits to the bar and you hit. 62S, 63S, 64S. 

---

6-1

Make a point in the opening roll with 13/7, 8/7. 

This is also the preferred play on the reply roll, with only two exceptions.

a) Hit and split (24/18, 6/5*) is best against 43S – split at DMP; point at GS, attack at GG

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 160

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver

pip: 167 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=-a---aE-C---dE-a-c-e----B-:0:0:1:61:0:0:3:0:10

to play 61

1.	Book1	24/18 6/5*	eq: -0.153
	Player: Opponent: 47.24% (G:11.54% B:0.71%) 52.76% (G:16.94% B:1.04%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.157...-0.148) - [84.9%]
2.	Book1	13/7 8/7	eq: -0.156 (-0.003)
	Player: Opponent: 46.48% (G:11.15% B:0.56%) 53.52% (G:14.29% B:0.79%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.160...-0.152) - [15.0%]
3.	Book1	13/7 6/5*	eq: -0.162 (-0.009)
	Player: Opponent: 46.72% (G:12.52% B:0.72%) 53.28% (G:16.74% B:1.36%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.167...-0.157) - [0.1%]
1 Generated by Ken Bame on 10/12/2009 using eXtreme Gammon 1.04 36288 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. using 21 dice rotation Dice Seed: 1 Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

b) Hit and attack (13/7, 6/5*) is best against the European split 43U.  point at GS

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 160

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver

pip: 167 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=----aaE-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:61:0:0:3:0:10

to play 61

1.	Book1	13/7 6/5*	eq: -0.116
	Player: Opponent: 47.44% (G:12.33% B:0.50%) 52.56% (G:14.70% B:0.89%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.119...-0.113) - [96.7%]
2.	Book1	13/7 8/7	eq: -0.120 (-0.004)
	Player: Opponent: 46.82% (G:11.69% B:0.43%) 53.18% (G:12.14% B:0.54%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.122...-0.117) - [3.3%]
3.	Book2	24/18 6/5*	eq: -0.128 (-0.012)
	Player: Opponent: 47.48% (G:10.62% B:0.45%) 52.52% (G:14.83% B:0.68%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.132...-0.125) - [0.0%]
1 Generated by Claude Landry on 1/2/2011 using eXtreme Gammon 1.21 46656 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 84409609 Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply 2 Generated by Claude Landry on 1/2/2011 using eXtreme Gammon 1.21 37584 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 84409609 Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10