Reply Rolls Revisited: Batch 2

I am guessing I made these notes from the old Bill Blogs Backgammon days and just never published them.  Here is the second batch.

Opening replies, 3-1, 4-2, 5-3, 5-2, 5-4

---

 

3-1:

Make the 5 point (8/5, 6/5) on first roll with 31. This is the preferred play on the reply roll. There are only a few exceptions, when hitting is profitable.

a) Hit when opponent slots his 5 point. 21$, 41$, 51$, 62$
b) Hit with full roll on the rarely played 62R.

c) Hit and split against 63R and 64S. (Power of the 9-point builder. When opponent has a lot of point making numbers, consider a tempo hit.)

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 157

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver

pip: 167 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=-a----EaC---dE--ac-e----B-:0:0:1:31:0:0:3:0:10

to play 31

1.	Book1	8/5 6/5	eq: -0.107
	Player: Opponent: 47.19% (G:12.81% B:0.51%) 52.81% (G:13.83% B:0.64%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.109...-0.105) - [95.3%]
2.	Book1	24/21 8/7*	eq: -0.109 (-0.002)
	Player: Opponent: 47.60% (G:12.94% B:0.60%) 52.40% (G:15.41% B:0.74%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.111...-0.108) - [4.7%]
3.	Book2	13/10 8/7*	eq: -0.144 (-0.037)
	Player: Opponent: 46.97% (G:13.54% B:0.64%) 53.03% (G:16.99% B:1.18%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.150...-0.137) - [0.0%]
1 Generated by Dmitriy Obukhov on 9/8/2011 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00 62208 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 87509219 Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply 2 Generated by Dmitriy Obukhov on 9/8/2011 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 87509219 Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Note. Make the 5-point is preferable to hitting when opponent splits to the bar and lacks the 9-point power builder (62S, 63S).

---

4-2

Make the 4-point on the opening roll.

This is also best on the second roll, unless you have a better hitting option.

a) Hit a slot and come down from the midpoint (24/20*, 13/11) against 21$, 41$, 51$, 62$, 64R
b) Hit loose 13/7* when opponent splits to the midpoint with 62S, 63S, 64S
c) Hit and bring another down from the midpoint (13/9*, 13/11) against the rare 62R

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 159

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver

pip: 167 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=-a----EaC---dEa--c-e----B-:0:0:1:42:0:0:3:0:10

to play 42

1.	Book1	13/7*	eq: -0.066
	Player: Opponent: 48.40% (G:13.71% B:0.64%) 51.60% (G:14.49% B:0.82%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.078...-0.054) - [100.0%]
2.	Book2	8/4 6/4	eq: -0.094 (-0.028)
	Player: Opponent: 47.46% (G:13.55% B:0.53%) 52.54% (G:13.61% B:0.64%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.101...-0.087) - [0.0%]
3.	3-ply	24/18	eq: -0.199 (-0.133)
	Player: Opponent: 44.84% (G:9.33% B:0.36%) 55.16% (G:13.46% B:0.49%)
1 Generated by David Rockwell on 6/22/2010 using eXtreme Gammon 1.14 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 26996237 Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply 2 Generated by GameSite 2000, Ltd on 2/26/2011 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 77390818 Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply Red

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

---

5-3:

Make a point on the opening role. Generally make a point on the second roll unless you can profitably hit elsewhere.

Make the 3-point 8/3, 6/3 unless …
1) 24/16* hits a blot on his side of the board: 41$ 41S, 43D, 54D, 43Z, 64S
2) 13/10*, 13/8 hit a blot in your outfield: 63R

3) Hit loose on the 5-point if opponent splits there: 43U, 43S, 54S

 

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 160

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver

pip: 167 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=-a---aE-C---dE-a-c-e----B-:0:0:1:53:0:0:3:0:10

to play 53

1.	Book1	13/5*	eq: -0.101
	Player: Opponent: 47.41% (G:13.20% B:0.58%) 52.59% (G:14.79% B:0.87%)
2.	Book1	8/3 6/3	eq: -0.168 (-0.067)
	Player: Opponent: 45.79% (G:11.80% B:0.45%) 54.21% (G:14.90% B:0.68%)
3.	3-ply	8/5* 6/1*	eq: -0.174 (-0.073)
	Player: Opponent: 45.83% (G:12.46% B:0.49%) 54.17% (G:16.51% B:1.11%)
1 Generated by GameSite 2000, Ltd on 2/26/2011 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00 Analyzed in XG Roller++

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

---

5-2:

Split 24/22, 13/8 on the opening roll. Also the most common opening reply.

Exceptions:
a) Counterslot (13/8, 6/4) when you miss the weak slotting plays 51$ or 62$ GS: 52S

b) Hit and split (24/22, 6/1*) when opponent splits to the bar on 62S, 63S, 64S

 

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 158

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver

pip: 167 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=-a----EaC---dE-a-c-e----B-:0:0:1:52:0:0:3:0:10

to play 52

1.	Book1	24/22 13/8	eq: -0.213
	Player: Opponent: 44.68% (G:10.78% B:0.39%) 55.32% (G:13.76% B:0.54%) Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.215...-0.212) - [77.3%]
2.	Book1	24/22 6/1*	eq: -0.214 (-0.001)
	Player: Opponent: 44.40% (G:11.97% B:0.40%) 55.60% (G:14.06% B:0.69%) Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.215...-0.213) - [22.7%]
3.	Book2	13/8 6/4	eq: -0.265 (-0.052)
	Player: Opponent: 43.77% (G:11.09% B:0.43%) 56.23% (G:15.31% B:0.81%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.271...-0.260) - [0.0%]
1 Generated by Christopher Yep on 4/18/2012 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00 186624 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 31206198 Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply 2 Generated by Christopher Yep on 4/18/2012 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 31206198 Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

c) Hit loose (13/8, 6/4*) when opponent splits to the 4-point with 32S, 43Z, or 43U

d) Bring two down (13/11, 13/8)
1. when opponent plays the weak two-down plays (52D, 54D)
2. against lovers leap 65R (priority is to play against the lone blot rather than split)

 

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 156

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver

pip: 167 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=-a----E-C---fE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:52:0:0:3:0:10

to play 52

1.	Book1	13/11 13/8	eq: -0.199
	Player: Opponent: 44.56% (G:11.86% B:0.50%) 55.44% (G:13.82% B:0.89%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.210...-0.187) - [100.0%]
2.	Book1	24/22 13/8	eq: -0.226 (-0.028)
	Player: Opponent: 44.19% (G:10.59% B:0.41%) 55.81% (G:12.46% B:0.63%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.236...-0.216) - [0.0%]
3.	Book2	13/11 6/1*	eq: -0.276 (-0.078)
	Player: Opponent: 43.02% (G:11.87% B:0.32%) 56.98% (G:14.98% B:0.95%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.283...-0.269) - [0.0%]
1 Generated by David Rockwell on 6/6/2010 using eXtreme Gammon 1.14 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 27520855 Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply 2 Generated by GameSite 2000, Ltd on 2/26/2011 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 77390818 Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply Red

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

3. against 53P (split is impossible)
4. against 52S (don’t split when 8-point is heavy)
5. Hit and down (13/11, 13/8) on 64R

 

Note split is right reply to 54S (you need to confront the super builder on the 9-point) and also against the strong two-down plays 43D, 32D (try for the anchor now before you get primed in)

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 162

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver

pip: 167 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=-b----E-C---cEaa-c-e----B-:0:0:1:52:0:0:3:0:10

to play 52

1.	Book1	24/22 13/8	eq: -0.176
	Player: Opponent: 46.10% (G:12.56% B:0.69%) 53.90% (G:17.49% B:0.66%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.183...-0.169) - [100.0%]
2.	Book1	13/11 13/8	eq: -0.204 (-0.029)
	Player: Opponent: 45.37% (G:13.55% B:0.79%) 54.63% (G:17.99% B:1.05%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.212...-0.197) - [0.0%]
3.	Book1	13/8 6/4	eq: -0.214 (-0.038)
	Player: Opponent: 45.36% (G:12.70% B:0.68%) 54.64% (G:17.70% B:1.09%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.222...-0.206) - [0.0%]
1 Generated by GameSite 2000, Ltd on 2/26/2011 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 77390818 Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply Red

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

---

5-4:

Split 24/20, 13/8 on the opening roll.
Splitting is also the most common reply but there are many exceptions.

1) Hitting
a. 24/20*, 13/8, Hit in the opponent’s slot and split if you can: 21$, 41$, 51$, 62$
b. 24/20, 6/1*, Hit and split when:
- Opponent splits to the bar and you miss: 62S, 64S

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 157

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver

pip: 167 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=-a----EaC---dE--ac-e----B-:0:0:1:54:0:0:3:0:10

to play 54

1.	Book1	24/20 6/1*	eq: -0.177
	Player: Opponent: 45.68% (G:12.72% B:0.44%) 54.32% (G:15.10% B:0.77%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.184...-0.170) - [100.0%]
2.	Book1	24/20 13/8	eq: -0.218 (-0.041)
	Player: Opponent: 44.70% (G:11.02% B:0.46%) 55.30% (G:14.55% B:0.65%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.225...-0.212) - [0.0%]
3.	3-ply	24/15	eq: -0.253 (-0.076)
	Player: Opponent: 43.61% (G:8.54% B:0.33%) 56.39% (G:14.52% B:0.55%)
1 Generated by GameSite 2000, Ltd on 2/26/2011 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 77390818 Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply Red

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

- You need to confront the super-builder on the 9-point: 41S

c. 24/13* Hit in the outfield if you can: 32Z, 43S, 63S, 32D, 43D
d. 13/4* Hit loose in home board if opponent splits to the 4-point: 32S, 43Z, 43U

2) Bring Two Down 13/8, 13/9
a. If it hits incidentally as in 62R
b. Opponent makes 5-point 31P (impossible to split)
c. Opponent makes 2-point (don’t split into the blitz) 

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 157

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver

pip: 167 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=-b----E-C---eE---b-d---bB-:0:0:1:54:0:0:3:0:10

to play 54

1.	Book1	13/9 13/8	eq: -0.100
	Player: Opponent: 48.06% (G:14.61% B:0.71%) 51.94% (G:16.77% B:1.07%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.107...-0.093) - [100.0%]
2.	Book1	24/20 13/8	eq: -0.122 (-0.023)
	Player: Opponent: 47.85% (G:12.89% B:0.67%) 52.15% (G:17.45% B:0.70%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.129...-0.115) - [0.0%]
3.	Book1	24/15	eq: -0.185 (-0.085)
	Player: Opponent: 46.77% (G:10.94% B:0.51%) 53.23% (G:18.37% B:0.67%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.191...-0.178) - [0.0%]
1 Generated by GameSite 2000, Ltd on 2/26/2011 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 77390818 Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply Red

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

d. Opponent brings two down and you miss: 52D, 54D

3) It is only right to run 24/15 against 61P  (looks like split is tied - BC 2016)

 

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 160

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver

pip: 167 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=-b----E-C---dE---bbe----B-:0:0:1:54:0:0:3:0:10

to play 54

1.	Book1	24/20 13/8	eq: -0.229
	Player: Opponent: 44.86% (G:11.31% B:0.65%) 55.14% (G:16.20% B:0.86%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.233...-0.226) - [92.2%]
2.	Book1	24/15	eq: -0.233 (-0.004)
	Player: Opponent: 44.97% (G:10.25% B:0.55%) 55.03% (G:16.55% B:0.83%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.237...-0.229) - [7.8%]
3.	Book2	13/9 13/8	eq: -0.285 (-0.055)
	Player: Opponent: 43.08% (G:12.55% B:0.72%) 56.92% (G:16.47% B:1.07%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.296...-0.273) - [0.0%]
1 Generated by David Rockwell on 6/6/2010 using eXtreme Gammon 1.14 46656 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 74780549 Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply 2 Generated by David Rockwell on 6/6/2010 using eXtreme Gammon 1.14 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 74780549 Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Split 24/20, 13/8 with all other rolls, mostly because there are no better alternatives.