JQ autopsy post 1

I recorded my matches from the Flint tournament Sunday.

This post is called "autposy" since I am going to make an attempt to write up ALL of my errors.  I start with my match against JQ.  Fair warning - given my knack for starting but not finishing projects, who knows how this will go?  Especially since I expect this to be a truly humbling experience.

************

1st game of 9 point match.  61 to play.

is JQ score: 0 pip: 126

9 point match

pip: 147 score: 0 is Bill

XGID=----BBCBBa--d----bbdCA-b--:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:9:10

to play 61

1.	XG Roller++	20/14 6/5	eq: -0.596
	Player: Opponent: 32.89% (G:4.32% B:0.09%) 67.11% (G:7.25% B:0.13%)
2.	XG Roller++	20/13	eq: -0.615 (-0.019)
	Player: Opponent: 32.63% (G:4.85% B:0.12%) 67.37% (G:8.12% B:0.16%)
3.	XG Roller++	20/14 8/7	eq: -0.617 (-0.021)
	Player: Opponent: 32.28% (G:4.34% B:0.10%) 67.72% (G:7.53% B:0.14%)
4.	XG Roller++	21/14	eq: -0.660 (-0.064)
	Player: Opponent: 30.63% (G:3.18% B:0.07%) 69.37% (G:5.24% B:0.07%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I moved 21/14.  This play is wrong on principle. 

All the top plays involve 20/14 with 6/5 being the best ace.

I am down in the race and have a killer board.  I need contact, specifically I need hit.  Therefore I shouldn't touch the man on the 21 point.  Essentially I am playing a phantom 54 backgame here.  My board is so strong that JQ must respect it.  He would probably think twice about even pointing on me since a return hit form the bar almost wins on the spot.

Another smaller factor is that I have 3 men on the 20 point.  The urge to simply move off this point is strong, and makes perfect sense here.  I get contact and maintain timing.  Seems obvious in retrospect.

***********

Later in the same game and I have 64 to play.

is JQ score: 0 pip: 75

9 point match

pip: 93 score: 0 is Bill

XGID=-ABBBCBA---------bbdBcac--:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:9:10

to play 64

1.	XG Roller++	20/16 20/14	eq: -0.832
	Player: Opponent: 25.08% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 74.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.	XG Roller++	20/10	eq: -0.881 (-0.048)
	Player: Opponent: 24.54% (G:0.16% B:0.00%) 75.46% (G:0.73% B:0.01%)
3.	3-ply	20/14 7/3	eq: -0.931 (-0.098)
	Player: Opponent: 23.41% (G:0.19% B:0.00%) 76.59% (G:1.02% B:0.01%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I ran with one man, 20/10.  I didn't want to disengage into an almost hopeless race and noticed the homeboard blot.  Unless he rolls a perfecta he probably won't hit me, and on the other hand if rolls awkward he may have to damage his distribution a bit for the coming bearoff.  Or so I figured.

Best was to just get out of dodge immediately with 20/16, 20/14.  I guess he only hits me if it's good for him, and there are just more of those numbers than the awkward slow the race numbers.  I guess he'd prefer to place aces and dueces to the 5 point to fill in for the race ... but if my guy is there some of those same aces and duces just pick / pass / and cover.  (21, 31, 32, 22 and 11 are all of a sudden great rolls)

And while the race sucks after leaping out it still represents the best chance to win.  And while I know this play is more likely to get the cube, it is a takeable race cube.  Not run, but a take.

***********

I trail 9 away 8 away and have 63 to play.

is JQ score: 1 pip: 186

9 point match

pip: 122 score: 0 is Bill

XGID=-b-abCD-CB--bB-A-abbba----:0:0:1:63:0:1:0:9:10

to play 63

1.	XG Roller+	9/3* 6/3	eq: +0.578
	Player: Opponent: 57.34% (G:29.17% B:3.44%) 42.66% (G:5.68% B:0.22%)
2.	XG Roller+	15/9 8/5	eq: +0.458 (-0.120)
	Player: Opponent: 56.63% (G:24.36% B:1.77%) 43.37% (G:6.76% B:0.23%)
3.	4-ply	15/9 6/3*	eq: +0.570 (-0.008)
	Player: Opponent: 58.63% (G:26.87% B:2.67%) 41.37% (G:6.51% B:0.26%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

Yes it's completely obvious. 9/3*, 6/3 points on JQ's head. I just missed it. This is a case of tunnel vision. Mentally I focused on getting my back man to safety. So I played the "forced" six 15/9 and then looked for the best 3. I settled on 8/5. You can't make the best play if you don't even see it. What an unfortunate unforced error.

***********

Next I trail 9 away 7 away and have 61 to play.

is JQ score: 2 pip: 158

9 point match

pip: 191 score: 0 is Bill

XGID=--a--aE-B---dD--ac-eA---BA:0:0:1:61:0:2:0:9:10

to play 61

1.	XG Roller++	Bar/18	eq: -0.483
	Player: Opponent: 39.11% (G:8.14% B:0.30%) 60.89% (G:22.30% B:1.85%)
2.	XG Roller++	Bar/24 8/2*	eq: -0.586 (-0.103)
	Player: Opponent: 37.34% (G:7.88% B:0.28%) 62.66% (G:25.23% B:2.93%)
3.	4-ply	Bar/24 20/14	eq: -0.514 (-0.031)
	Player: Opponent: 37.56% (G:7.83% B:0.32%) 62.44% (G:22.09% B:1.95%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

Here is another unforced mental error.  I played Bar/24, 8/2*.

The best play is the rather obvious Bar/18.

My dumbass play was just me panicking.  I didn't want to give John his full roll when there was a good chance he would either point on my head or hit two.  But what is the alternative?

My play is just too ass ugly to be viable.  Three men on the ace point is a big no-no.  That alone should really be the end of the story.  On top of that, I am hitting inside on a point I don't want (the duece), and with the wrong man.  I abandon the 8 point, which is bad.  Moreover, my 6 point needs unstacking, and my play leaves the 6 still stacked.

Looking back at this, what can I say except if I could refrain from making such obviously stupid plays (counting the previous problem as well) I could make an instant big jump in PR.

***********

Later in the same game.  I am on roll.  Cube action?

is JQ score: 2 pip: 99

9 point match

pip: 113 score: 0 is Bill

XGID=--BACBC--a--bB---c-cBabba-:0:0:1:00:0:2:0:9:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	57.78% (G:17.54% B:0.26%)	57.91% (G:17.74% B:0.30%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	42.22% (G:6.43% B:0.16%)	42.09% (G:6.44% B:0.17%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.261	+0.561
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.292 (-0.050)
Double/Take:	+0.342
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.658)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I missed a double here.  To be honest, I think I quickly rolled and didn't even consider doubling.  That said, I am not sure I would have doubled even if I did think about it.

I am down in the race but shooting at a blot with a 4.5 point board.  41, 43, 46 all hit and cover.  The other hits put John under tremendous pressure to hit back from the bar, else he is basically screwed.

Another point is the scoreboard.  I trail by two points which always seems to swing things .05 or so in favor of the doubler.  ie - you can double a bit earlier.

Also important, John I am anchored and John has two inner board blots.  In the variations where I hit, and JQ hits back, he is still in jeopardy due to those inner board blots.  He could easily lose or even get gammoned from there.

Another important point is that John still has some work to do even when I miss.  A decent amount of the time he won't be able to safety his blot (nor hit and cover) so there are some repeaters in the mix.  Finally, even if does get to safety I am anchored on his 5 point with him having to bring the midpoint home.  So he is not out of the woods for a while yet.

***********

Later in the same game.  I hit a shot and John entered with an ace.  I doubled and then popped this loser 31.  How to play it?

is JQ score: 2 pip: 84

9 point match

pip: 91 score: 0 is Bill

XGID=-aBCBBC---A-A----b-dAbbbb-:1:-1:1:31:0:2:0:9:10

to play 31

1.	XG Roller++	12/9 10/9	eq: -0.041
	Player: Opponent: 52.32% (G:4.37% B:0.12%) 47.68% (G:2.72% B:0.03%)
2.	XG Roller++	10/6	eq: -0.068 (-0.026)
	Player: Opponent: 51.64% (G:5.17% B:0.16%) 48.36% (G:7.71% B:0.13%)
3.	4-ply	6/2	eq: -0.118 (-0.077)
	Player: Opponent: 51.99% (G:4.86% B:0.16%) 48.01% (G:13.20% B:0.35%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I played 10/6.  My logic was I wanted to keep some outfield control in case John popped a six.    A small error.

The computer likes tidying up with 12/9, 10/9. 

Perhaps the outfield control is an illusion.  65 hits and 64 and 62 leave me a shot.  But 61 and 63 he pops out and hits me!!  That's the illusion part.

************

Still later in the same game.  42 to play.

is JQ score: 2 pip: 99

9 point match

pip: 80 score: 0 is Bill

XGID=aaBCBBDA----------Ae-bbbb-:1:-1:1:42:0:2:0:9:10

to play 42

1.	XG Roller++	7/5 6/2	eq: +1.165
	Player: Opponent: 93.23% (G:28.07% B:0.70%) 6.77% (G:0.19% B:0.00%)
2.	XG Roller++	7/1*	eq: +1.124 (-0.041)
	Player: Opponent: 89.06% (G:33.73% B:0.83%) 10.94% (G:1.53% B:0.03%)
3.	4-ply	18/14 7/5	eq: +1.141 (-0.024)
	Player: Opponent: 92.61% (G:27.36% B:0.64%) 7.39% (G:0.28% B:0.01%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I played 7/1*.  This is too risky.  While the parlay he hits me, then anchors before I do, and then escapes is fairly small, apparently there is no need to press this hard.  Another play, 6/2, 3/1* (not shown) is about the same equity.  This risks even more but locks the game up immediately when JQ dances.

Best is 7/5, 6/2.  This is a play I frankly didn't consider.  I suppose the most common variation is JQ dances and then I get a free shot and pointing on him naturally.  Even if he does anchor I could still win a gammon.

This seems to be a case of "make the DMP play."  Bringing the builders in safely wins the most and also scores a decent amount of gammons.

***********

Later in the same game.  Now I am in the bearoff phase.  42 to play.

is JQ score: 2 pip: 100

9 point match

pip: 56 score: 0 is Bill

XGID=bBBCBCC------------e-bbbb-:1:-1:1:42:0:2:0:9:10

to play 42

1.	XG Roller++	6/Off	eq: +1.427
	Player: Opponent: 96.31% (G:44.39% B:1.29%) 3.69% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.	XG Roller++	6/4 5/1	eq: +1.374 (-0.054)
	Player: Opponent: 97.07% (G:38.48% B:0.86%) 2.93% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.	4-ply	6/2 5/3	eq: +1.343 (-0.085)
	Player: Opponent: 97.58% (G:34.91% B:0.63%) 2.42% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

This is a techincal play.  This is a rare case where the DMP play is wrong.

Correct is to peel a man with 6/off.  This traded .7% losses for 6% percent extra gammons, a great deal.

The open 5 point is an extra incentive for the aggressive play, as I have life after death even if I get hit later on.

**************

However, look at this variation.  I gave Quinn a perfect board.  42 to play.

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 98

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver

pip: 56 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=bBBCBCC------------cbbbbb-:1:-1:1:42:0:0:3:0:10

to play 42

1.	XG Roller++	6/Off	eq: +1.263
	Player: Opponent: 93.29% (G:40.98% B:1.14%) 6.71% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.	XG Roller++	6/4 5/1	eq: +1.255 (-0.009)
	Player: Opponent: 95.35% (G:35.37% B:0.78%) 4.65% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.	XG Roller++	6/2 5/3	eq: +1.244 (-0.019)
	Player: Opponent: 96.22% (G:32.48% B:0.63%) 3.78% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02

Here it still right to go greedy with 6/off, although the decision is very close.

Looks like an extra checker is worth about 5% gammons, while the hit jeopardy is about 2%.  Something to keep in mind, as this type of decision seems to crop up all the time.

**********

One last blunder from this game.  Still in the bearoff phase.  21 to play.

is JQ score: 2 pip: 100

9 point match

pip: 41 score: 0 is Bill

XGID=bDCCCB-------------e-bbbb-:1:-1:1:21:0:2:0:9:10

to play 21

1.	XG Roller+	2/Off 1/Off	eq: +1.431
	Player: Opponent: 97.16% (G:43.09% B:1.06%) 2.84% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.	XG Roller+	4/3 2/Off	eq: +1.347 (-0.083)
	Player: Opponent: 98.50% (G:33.47% B:0.54%) 1.50% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.	3-ply	4/2 1/Off	eq: +1.346 (-0.084)
	Player: Opponent: 98.18% (G:34.19% B:0.45%) 1.82% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

In light of the previous problem this one is now easy.  Checkers off, with 2/off, 1/off is clearly the right play. 

The wimply play wins more but at the cost of giving up those juicy gammons.  Which is exactly what I did.  I played the supersafe 4/3, 2/off.


That's enough for one day!!  Bill

The boneheads are back

I was out of town for a week on business. First match back and the bonehead plays are back!!

***********
42 to play.

is alicalkap score: 0 pip: 144

7 point match

pip: 143 score: 0 is Chutzpah

XGID=--B-BbCB----cD---bccb--AA-:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:7:10

to play 42

1.	XG Roller++	23/21 13/9	eq: -0.797
	Player: Opponent: 31.80% (G:6.77% B:0.20%) 68.20% (G:19.21% B:0.87%)
2.	XG Roller++	23/21 6/2	eq: -0.897 (-0.100)
	Player: Opponent: 30.49% (G:5.44% B:0.14%) 69.51% (G:20.19% B:0.74%)
3.	4-ply	24/22 13/9	eq: -0.826 (-0.029)
	Player: Opponent: 31.73% (G:6.21% B:0.18%) 68.27% (G:20.52% B:0.89%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

This really should be a "next" yet I goofed it up.

Before the dice are even rolled I want to advance my back men to make an anchor.  Opponent has an advanced anchor and I don't, and opponent has a better prime than I do.  2's and 3's are going to the 21 point and perhaps aces too.

So the 2 is "forced" 23/21.

How about the 4?

6/2 is ridiculous (my play) which leaves 13/9 as the only alternative. 

I have some tactics on my side as some 4's are duplicated (42 and 43 and 44 crushes me anyway, and even 45 46 give me a chance to roll a 4 from the bar to anchor)

*************

I lead 6 away 7 away and have 42 to play.  This time against manna90254

is manna90254 score: 0 pip: 145

7 point match

pip: 193 score: 1 is Chutzpah

XGID=-----aC-D-a-cD--ad-e-B--AA:0:0:1:42:1:0:0:7:10

to play 42

1.	XG Roller++	Bar/23 13/9	eq: -0.445
	Player: Opponent: 41.67% (G:9.05% B:0.33%) 58.33% (G:20.67% B:1.01%)
2.	XG Roller++	Bar/23 8/4	eq: -0.451 (-0.006)
	Player: Opponent: 41.23% (G:8.94% B:0.31%) 58.77% (G:19.89% B:0.95%)
3.	XG Roller++	Bar/21 13/11	eq: -0.462 (-0.016)
	Player: Opponent: 41.26% (G:8.60% B:0.30%) 58.74% (G:20.45% B:0.84%)
4.	XG Roller++	Bar/21 8/6	eq: -0.500 (-0.055)
	Player: Opponent: 39.43% (G:8.26% B:0.26%) 60.57% (G:18.51% B:0.65%)
5.	XG Roller++	Bar/21 6/4	eq: -0.511 (-0.066)
	Player: Opponent: 39.77% (G:8.10% B:0.26%) 60.23% (G:19.81% B:0.75%)
6.	XG Roller++	Bar/21 24/22	eq: -0.555 (-0.110)
	Player: Opponent: 38.28% (G:7.35% B:0.25%) 61.72% (G:18.54% B:0.55%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I moved Bar/21, 24/22.  I highlight this play because my move is so illogical.

I am way behind in the race - under no circumstances should I be moving my backmost checker.  This is insanity. 

There are several moves that are reasonable.  The key once again is don't touch that back man!!

Bar/23 makes the most sense, staying furthest back and covering the most territory should opponenet leave a blot while leaving the most opportunities to form a second anchor.  Either 13/9 or 8/4 are logical 4's.

*************
Here is another play from the same game.  64 to play.

is manna90254 score: 0 pip: 121

7 point match

pip: 149 score: 1 is Chutzpah

XGID=----BaB-CBAabB-Bbb-bbA-ba-:0:0:1:64:1:0:0:7:10

to play 64

1.	XG Roller+	15/11* 11/5*	eq: +0.519
	Player: Opponent: 64.04% (G:20.49% B:1.12%) 35.96% (G:14.99% B:0.93%)
2.	XG Roller+	21/11*	eq: +0.347 (-0.172)
	Player: Opponent: 60.25% (G:14.65% B:0.76%) 39.75% (G:13.85% B:0.39%)
3.	1-ply	15/9 15/11*	eq: +0.061 (-0.458)
	Player: Opponent: 54.64% (G:14.24% B:0.84%) 45.36% (G:19.49% B:0.64%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I hit from the back 21/11*  This is the wrong strategy.  For one, I am still behind in the race, so disengaging seems to be the wrong idea.  Also, tactically this is weakeast as I give my opponent many good rolls.  Most 5's and 6's enter and hit at a time when I am outboarded (though he does have the return blot on the ace) while some 5's simply anchor when opponent is happy.  So about 1/2 the rolls opponent is happy.

On the other hand, hitting two with 15/11*/5* puts tremendous pressure on opponent to roll a 5.  So less good rolls and more upside when it works.  If opponent doesn't roll a 5 he's basically hosed.  And even if does roll a 5, I have that return shot at his blot on the ace, lessening the damage somewhat.

*************
Here's another "next" from the same game that I got way wrong.  64 to play.

is manna90254 score: 0 pip: 121

7 point match

pip: 168 score: 1 is Chutzpah

XGID=----BaCABA-bcB-----cbD-bb-:0:0:1:64:1:0:0:7:10

to play 64

1.	XG Roller+	13/9 13/7	eq: -0.392
	Player: Opponent: 40.53% (G:9.13% B:0.35%) 59.47% (G:14.86% B:0.22%)
2.	XG Roller+	9/3 7/3	eq: -0.508 (-0.116)
	Player: Opponent: 37.86% (G:8.90% B:0.26%) 62.14% (G:16.08% B:0.26%)
3.	2-ply	13/7 9/5*	eq: -0.744 (-0.352)
	Player: Opponent: 38.67% (G:9.56% B:0.32%) 61.33% (G:33.43% B:0.99%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

My first instinct was 13/9, 13/7 but in the end I made the point 9/3, 7/3.  This is a huge mitake, and  shortsighted.

First off, I don't really want the 3 point. The 5 point is a higher priority.

Second, even though I don't particularly want to prime his lone man, I do form a 4 prime with which close to half the numbers fail to escape.

Third, 13/9, 13/7 buys some time.  I now have six checkers to play with on my side of the board while I wait for shots.

Fourth, and most important, my opponent lacks a stepping stone on his outer board to bring his men home safely.  I will likely get multiple indirect shots and/or some direct shots as well.  Again, since he lacks a point in his outer board it will be very difficult to bring these men around.  Patience grasshopper, patience!!

Something basic I learned in Cleveland!!

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 4

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver

pip: 4 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=--B--------------------b--:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	79.94% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)	79.94% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	20.06% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)	20.06% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.599	+1.198
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.599 (-0.352)
Redouble/Take:	+0.951
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.049)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02

We all know this is a double and a take.

But why? Yellow (the weaker side) only wins 20%. Why take? Because of the recube.

OK, that makes some sense. But how do you know? How do you measure that?

This is what I learned in Cleveland. Last roll position.

Win chances = [(# rolls opponent misses) x (# rolls you hit)] / 1296.

You need 25% of 324 to take.

(10) * (26) = 260 implies drop.

What gives? OK, so this is the trick. The recube doubles your equity to the extent you are a favorite.

So, when we get to roll we have 26 rolls to get off, or 8 more than half of 18. We add the 8 rolls into the calculation.

It's as if we get off 34 times (rather than 26) since we win those games with a recube.

So, the corrected calculation is:
(10) * (26 + 8) = 340 or take.
We get double the value on those wins.
Pretty neat. Thanks Dima. dfd

not in the mood

You probably noticed my posts have slowed to a trickle. Well, quite simply I haven't felt like it lately. I am not going to delete my blog like I did last time. I will keep it open, with the understanding that I will probably blog again. I am not sure when or how often at the momonent.