KarenDavis

Below are selected decisions from an online match against KarenDavis.

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7 away 7 away, centered cube.  Me to move 44?

is karendavis score: 0 pip: 131

7 point match

pip: 135 score: 0 is Chutzpah

XGID=-aBBB-B-B---dB----ccbCb---:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:7:10

to play 44

1.	XG Roller++	21/17(2) 21/13	eq: +0.391
	Player: Opponent: 60.85% (G:10.98% B:0.16%) 39.15% (G:7.59% B:0.18%)
2.	XG Roller++	13/5(2)	eq: +0.337 (-0.054)
	Player: Opponent: 56.27% (G:17.58% B:0.15%) 43.73% (G:5.52% B:0.15%)
3.	2-ply	21/17(3) 8/4	eq: +0.205 (-0.186)
	Player: Opponent: 55.63% (G:12.46% B:0.16%) 44.37% (G:9.42% B:0.23%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I actually got this one right.   Up in the race, race.  Simple!!  21/17(2), 21/13.

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Next roll.  How to play 51?

is karendavis score: 0 pip: 127

7 point match

pip: 119 score: 0 is Chutzpah

XGID=-aBBB-B-B---dC---Bbbcab---:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:7:10

to play 51

1.	XG Roller+	13/7	eq: +0.230
	Player: Opponent: 56.58% (G:16.19% B:0.28%) 43.42% (G:12.32% B:0.39%)
2.	XG Roller+	8/2	eq: +0.200 (-0.030)
	Player: Opponent: 55.70% (G:13.00% B:0.20%) 44.30% (G:11.42% B:0.34%)
3.	4-ply	17/11	eq: +0.170 (-0.061)
	Player: Opponent: 55.81% (G:11.26% B:0.35%) 44.19% (G:12.37% B:0.30%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I made the wimpy 8/2.  "No shot before it's time" is the philosophy but this is misguided here.  Karen is getting stronger - I should take my chance now.  Perhaps more important, I practically kill my checker by going the two point.  Meanwhile, my position is stripped out.  Unless I roll cute I will be tiptpoeing all the way home hoping not to get hit - and the race is also close.  I don't think I am up enough for the bring it home safely approach.  I should stuff the bar point now with 13/7 and place immediate pressure on Karen to roll something good - especially while I have the stronger board and the prospect of return shots on most of Karen's hitters.

Note that even in the modified position where Karen has the 4 point covered - a 5 prime waiting to bury me should she hit - it is still only a small error to slot!!  My structure is so weak that it seems I should be going for it now.

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Later in the same game.  I doubled earlier.  How to play 61?

is karendavis score: 0 pip: 102

7 point match

pip: 98 score: 0 is Chutzpah

XGID=aBBBBB------BAA-bAacdbb---:1:-1:1:61:0:0:0:7:10

to play 61

1.	XG Roller++	17/10	eq: +0.637
	Player: Opponent: 81.89% (G:7.94% B:0.06%) 18.11% (G:3.65% B:0.13%)
2.	XG Roller++	17/11 13/12	eq: +0.617 (-0.019)
	Player: Opponent: 81.06% (G:7.43% B:0.06%) 18.94% (G:2.83% B:0.06%)
3.	XG Roller++	17/11 12/11	eq: +0.613 (-0.024)
	Player: Opponent: 80.96% (G:7.03% B:0.05%) 19.04% (G:2.97% B:0.12%)
4.	XG Roller++	17/11 14/13	eq: +0.595 (-0.042)
	Player: Opponent: 80.17% (G:7.33% B:0.06%) 19.83% (G:3.36% B:0.07%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I don't understand this one.

The best I can come up with is that my play (17/11, 14/13) leaves only two hitters, as does the best play (17/10) ... but ...

The better play gives double 4's as an extra cover number for the six point next time.  Also, if I am hit, I get a couple more return shots from the bar, plus I am better diversified to make another point somewhere should Karen dance again next time or to hit should she come in with a single six.
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I trail 6 away 5 away and have 33 to play.  Your move?

is karendavis score: 2 pip: 143

7 point match

pip: 156 score: 1 is Chutzpah

XGID=----bBD-C-A-bCa--d-d-b--AA:0:0:1:33:1:2:0:7:10

to play 33

1.	XG Roller++	Bar/22 13/10 6/3(2)	eq: -0.013
	Player: Opponent: 50.02% (G:9.20% B:0.34%) 49.98% (G:15.50% B:0.42%)
2.	XG Roller++	Bar/22 13/7 10/7	eq: -0.135 (-0.122)
	Player: Opponent: 46.52% (G:8.37% B:0.31%) 53.48% (G:15.31% B:0.41%)
3.	XG Roller++	Bar/22 13/10 8/5 6/3	eq: -0.158 (-0.146)
	Player: Opponent: 46.27% (G:9.78% B:0.38%) 53.73% (G:18.68% B:0.64%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I got this one right but wasn't so sure during the game.  Let's take a guess as to why the right play is right,
Bar/22, 13/10, 6/3(2) blocks his advanced anchor from 6 away.  Since I am down in the race this seems to be the most important factor. 

Making the bar point with Bar/22, 13/7, 10/7 forms four in a row but is a less effective block. 

Making the three point is an added bonus, as my men on the six point have no useful function other than to make a point.  Any hit will be more impactful now.
So, just as the first problem was simple ("up in the race, race") so does this problem seem to be easy ("behind in the race, block").

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Later in the same game.  I trail 6 away 5 away and am on roll.  Cube action?

is karendavis score: 2 pip: 149

7 point match

pip: 133 score: 1 is Chutzpah

XGID=-a-BbBB-C-B-aC---cbd-bA---:0:0:1:00:1:2:0:7:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	67.20% (G:14.16% B:0.56%)	67.36% (G:14.38% B:0.56%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	32.80% (G:6.18% B:0.19%)	32.64% (G:6.22% B:0.19%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.441	+0.963
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.741 (-0.018)
Double/Take:	+0.759
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.241)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

Up in the race and shooting at a blot with aces and 64 I tossed the cube.  This appears to be a borderlin double / take.

Karen is safely anchored and has good offensive structure so the take is super easy. 
Part of the double appears to be the score.  Being slightly behind appears to bump the cube decision about .06.  Compared to money, the position is a No Double / Take by .04 while at this score the cube is correct by .02

*************
Later in the same game, and Karen has turned this game around.  Cube action?

is karendavis score: 2 pip: 130

7 point match

pip: 126 score: 1 is Chutzpah

XGID=-a-BbCC-B-B--B---abcbbb--A:1:-1:-1:00:1:2:0:7:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller+	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	61.75% (G:25.08% B:0.70%)	61.90% (G:25.46% B:0.85%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	38.25% (G:9.52% B:0.49%)	38.10% (G:10.09% B:0.55%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.428	+0.574
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.538
Redouble/Take:	+0.238 (-0.299)
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.462)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 28.2%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

Karen redoubled and I took. The position is a big no redouble for money so the cube is obviously very bad at this socre. She is devaluing her gammons while giving me enormous cube leverage with a possible cube turn to 8 looming on the horizon. As scary as her 5 1/2 prime is, Karen has a lot of work to do. She still has 3 men back held by me broken 4-prime. This offensive structure is dangerous and should be respected.

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Very next turn. Karen rolled a god-awful double 4's. I am on roll holding 4 cube. Cube action?

is karendavis score: 2 pip: 114

7 point match

pip: 126 score: 1 is Chutzpah

XGID=-a-BbCC-B-B--B-----bbcda-A:2:1:1:00:1:2:0:7:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in 4-ply	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	59.69% (G:14.21% B:0.62%)	59.67% (G:14.39% B:0.64%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	40.31% (G:13.62% B:0.21%)	40.33% (G:13.67% B:0.21%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.261	+0.534
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.525 (-0.010)
Redouble/Take:	+0.534
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.466)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I doubled and Karen took.

Once again I am at the very front edge of a borderline Double / Take.

Karen can either drop when she trails 2 away 5 away or take and play for the match.  I "remember" 2a 5a as 25% but it is actually 26%.  So while my redouble is correct it may be more practical to wait.  Karen is obviously better than 25% to win so what I am really threatening?  A duece is obviously very good but even if I hit the game may not be over.  It appears I may be better to wait and see if she cracks some more.  Then my cube would be more difficult to evaluate (from her perspective).

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Later in the same game.  Cube is on 8 so it is effectively DMP now.  How to play 11 from the air?

is karendavis score: 2 pip: 101

7 point match

pip: 131 score: 1 is Chutzpah

XGID=--ABbBB-BaB--BA----bbbbcaA:3:-1:1:11:1:2:0:7:10

to play 11

1.	XG Roller++	Bar/24* 10/9* 3/2(2)	eq: +0.214
	Player: Opponent: 60.68% (G:16.44% B:0.58%) 39.32% (G:15.05% B:0.92%)
2.	XG Roller++	Bar/24* 10/9*(2) 3/2	eq: +0.202 (-0.012)
	Player: Opponent: 60.09% (G:17.64% B:0.73%) 39.91% (G:17.31% B:0.79%)
3.	XG Roller++	Bar/24* 14/13 10/9*(2)	eq: +0.168 (-0.045)
	Player: Opponent: 58.42% (G:16.67% B:0.67%) 41.58% (G:17.82% B:0.57%)
4.	XG Roller++	Bar/24* 10/9*(2) 2/1	eq: +0.155 (-0.059)
	Player: Opponent: 57.73% (G:15.83% B:0.58%) 42.27% (G:19.06% B:0.87%)
5.	XG Roller++	Bar/24* 13/12 10/9*(2)	eq: +0.115 (-0.098)
	Player: Opponent: 55.76% (G:16.22% B:0.65%) 44.24% (G:23.09% B:2.97%)
6.	3-ply	Bar/24* 10/9* 9/7	eq: +0.094 (-0.119)
	Player: Opponent: 54.72% (G:14.99% B:0.43%) 45.28% (G:25.42% B:3.58%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

Best is the sickly looking Bar/24*, 10/9*, 3/2(2).  Her 5 prime is still strong as acid, so I really don't want to get hit here.  My goal should be to simply come home safe and win the race. 

I played the more "natural" or at least not ugly looking Bar/24*, 13/12, 10/9*(2).

Scratch the DMP comment.  The computer play is also best for money.  I guess the key to the position is that 5 prime / 5 point board.  I really don't want another checker sent back under any circumstances and that appears to be the most important factor.