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July 21, 2012

Justin Post 1

I didn't record any matches from the Novi tournament, but still got one to look at as Justin recorded all of his.  I plan to look at several decisions from this 11 point main event match.

First is a cube decision from the opening game of our 11 point match.  Justin on roll.  Cube action?

is Justin

score: 0
pip: 131
11 point match
pip: 145
score: 0

is Bill
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 71.74% (G:15.75% B:0.76%) 72.23% (G:16.35% B:0.80%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 28.26% (G:5.86% B:0.23%) 27.77% (G:6.03% B:0.28%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.541 +1.125
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.833 (-0.098)±0.009 (+0.824..+0.843)
xg Double/Take:+0.931±0.015 (+0.916..+0.946)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.069)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 7 minutes 41 seconds
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2
Justing doubled and I dropped.

This result surprised me since the position looks pretty bleak.  Justin is about to make the bar, after which I will be behind a 5-prime not at the edge.

I did a mini-rollout, playing out the position 10 times.  I took Justin's side and let XG play my side.


Based on this mini-rollout the position is a beaver!!

I formed a 5-prime immediately in 9 of 10 games, yet I only won 4 times, getting a total of 8 points.

I lost all sorts of ways.  I lost by getting counteprimed.  I lost when XG escaped my 5-prime.  I lost when XG counterattacked and then escaped the 5-prime.  I lost when XG hit a shot from the deuce point later on.

All in all, I lost 6 times.  Three times I lost 4 cubes. Once I got gammoned on 4 to lose 8 and two other times I only lost 2 cubes, for a total loss of 24 points.

Net, I lost 26 points in 10 games.  While I was clearly unlucky here, at least this let me see the various ways the weaker side can win.  In addition to the ways I actually lost, XG could also get lucky and win the race.
In short, there is much more play here than meets the eye.

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