First is a cube decision from the opening game of our 11 point match. Justin on roll. Cube action?
| is Justin |
|11 point match|
|pip: 145 |
|on roll, cube action?|
|Analyzed in Rollout||No double||Double/Take|
|Player Winning Chances:||71.74% (G:15.75% B:0.76%)||72.23% (G:16.35% B:0.80%)|
|Opponent Winning Chances:||28.26% (G:5.86% B:0.23%)||27.77% (G:6.03% B:0.28%)|
|No double:||+0.833 (-0.098)||±0.009 (+0.824..+0.843)|
|Best Cube action: Double / Take|
|1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.|
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|Double Decision confidence:||100.0%|
|Take Decision confidence:||100.0%|
|Duration: 7 minutes 41 seconds|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2Justing doubled and I dropped.
This result surprised me since the position looks pretty bleak. Justin is about to make the bar, after which I will be behind a 5-prime not at the edge.
I did a mini-rollout, playing out the position 10 times. I took Justin's side and let XG play my side.
Based on this mini-rollout the position is a beaver!!
I formed a 5-prime immediately in 9 of 10 games, yet I only won 4 times, getting a total of 8 points.
I lost all sorts of ways. I lost by getting counteprimed. I lost when XG escaped my 5-prime. I lost when XG counterattacked and then escaped the 5-prime. I lost when XG hit a shot from the deuce point later on.
All in all, I lost 6 times. Three times I lost 4 cubes. Once I got gammoned on 4 to lose 8 and two other times I only lost 2 cubes, for a total loss of 24 points.
Net, I lost 26 points in 10 games. While I was clearly unlucky here, at least this let me see the various ways the weaker side can win. In addition to the ways I actually lost, XG could also get lucky and win the race.
In short, there is much more play here than meets the eye.