Moonshadow race recube

Here is some EPC practice.  For money and also ATS.

Attempting to use 'Stick's EPC methodology.' See my earlier post http://bigmoneybill.blogspot.com/2011/12/racingepc-and-prop-57-practice.html for more detail.

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First, for money. I would be on roll holding a 4 cube.  Cube action?

is Moonshadow score: 0 pip: 73

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver

pip: 55 score: 0 is Chutzpah

XGID=-EBDB-----A-----A--feba-a-:2:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	75.28% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)	75.33% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	24.72% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)	24.67% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.506	+1.013
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.800 (-0.050)
Redouble/Take:	+0.850
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.150)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02

Moonshadow's EPC isn't too difficult.  73 Raw + 7 for a nice position or about 80 pips.

Mine (chutzpah) is more difficult. 
Trice's stack and straggler would indicate ... 15 x (3.5) + stragglers minus 4 ...
or, 52.5 + 26 - 4 = 74.4 pips

cube action:  74.4 divide by 7 is about 10.5 less 3 or 7.5 pips.
so last take is 74.4 + 7.5 or 82 pips.
Double if moonshadow is 80 pips or more
Redouble if moonshadow if is 81 pips or more.

So by my interpreation of Trice's rules  this would be No Redouble / Take.

Yet XG clearly shows this is a cube.  Not sure if I made a mistake above or perhaps the formula is not totally reliable for a position such as this.

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Same position from the actual match.  I trail 7 away 6 away and am holding a 4 cube.  Cube action?

is moonshadow score: 1 pip: 73

7 point match

pip: 55 score: 0 is Chutzpah

XGID=-EBDB-----A-----A--feba-a-:2:1:1:00:0:1:0:7:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	75.26% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)	75.33% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	24.74% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)	24.67% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.505	+1.152
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.903 (-0.097)
Redouble/Take:	+1.152 (+0.152)
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I think most of the above calculations aplly to this position as well.  ie, what is the money cube action?  What adjustments do we need to make for the particular match score?

So for more money I am thinking No redouble / Take but the match score might be different.

If I recubed, Moonshadow could either drop or take for the match.  Dropping he would be down 6 away 3 away or 29%.  So his takepoint is 29%, or considerably higher than money.

So, from my point of view, it is clearly a recube.  And I wouldn't know about the take or not, but that's his problem.

It turns out the position is a large pass.  XG implies moonshadow wins about 25% - enough for money but short of the 29% needed at this score.