Justing Post 3

More positions from my match against Justin in Novi.

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I trail 11 away 8 away and have 52 to play.

is Justin score: 3 pip: 124

11 point match

pip: 145 score: 0 is Bill

XGID=----B-EaCA--dB---b-d-bb-B-:0:0:1:52:0:3:0:11:10

to play 52

1.	XG Roller++	9/7* 8/3	eq: -0.624
	Player: Opponent: 34.44% (G:8.99% B:0.23%) 65.56% (G:21.46% B:2.05%)
2.	XG Roller++	9/7* 6/1	eq: -0.632 (-0.008)
	Player: Opponent: 34.26% (G:8.93% B:0.19%) 65.74% (G:21.74% B:2.09%)
3.	XG Roller++	9/7* 7/2	eq: -0.655 (-0.031)
	Player: Opponent: 33.36% (G:8.17% B:0.19%) 66.64% (G:19.32% B:1.56%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

You have to hit with the two, what about the five?

I played 9/7*, 7/2 on the logic that you really don't want to get hit here.  But this is wrong.  Why?  The play has the least downside, but the least upside also.  As so often in backgammon, when you have a bad position you can 'afford' to take more chances and be more aggressive.  After all, if things go wrong you merely progress from sucks to sucks worse, ie, not giving up too much.

Best is 9/7*, 8/3.  As discussed above, this play carries more risk (18 hits versus 12) but has more upside.  If I am missed I have the oppurtunity to form a nice structure.  Also, note that the blot on the 2 point can never be part of a prime with the 8 point - while the blot on the 3 point can. 

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Later in the same game.  I am being cubed.  Take or Drop?

is Justin score: 3 pip: 115

11 point match

pip: 127 score: 0 is Bill

XGID=--A-BCD-A---dB--ab-dAbb-A-:0:0:-1:00:0:3:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	72.77% (G:18.35% B:0.66%)	72.98% (G:19.54% B:0.74%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	27.23% (G:4.38% B:0.10%)	27.02% (G:4.96% B:0.10%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.619	+1.294
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.828 (-0.172)
Double/Take:	+1.035 (+0.035)
Double/Pass:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I viewed things as half-empy. Justin can attack or just play quiet and win the race, depending whAt the dice give him, and if things go wrong I get gammoned. So I dropped.

But this is much closer than I imaged at the time.   I have significant winning chances as I could anchor and hit a later shot or I could get lucky and win the race - which is close.  But I also could get gammoned.  I am not anchored and my board isn't quite formed yet.  So it is in fact a drop, but fairly close.  Give me a couple extra pips or a better board and it could well be a take.  Also, the score doesn't factor too much here, I believe the position equates mostly for money.

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I trail 9 away 7 away and am being cubed.  Take or Drop?

is Justin score: 4 pip: 147

11 point match

pip: 158 score: 2 is Bill

XGID=-b--B-D-BA--eD-----bbb-bAA:0:0:-1:00:2:4:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in 4-ply	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	67.59% (G:33.96% B:2.14%)	67.59% (G:33.97% B:2.14%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	32.41% (G:7.09% B:0.37%)	32.41% (G:7.10% B:0.37%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.648	+1.287
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.777 (-0.141)
Double/Take:	+0.918
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.082)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I took and it is indeed a take but not as clear as I thought.  The position is in fact a drop for money.
My thinking - a blitz position with one on the rack and a four point usually spells trouble - tend towards drop.  Also, that extra blot on the 8 point is bad for me,  But, Justing only has 8 men in the zone, his builders are far away on the undeveloped midpoint.  Also a bonus for me is the score differential.  Since I am behind, I have less to lose and more to gain by elevating the stakes.

I may have took for money too, overvaluing the distance of the midpoint builders and perhaps undervaluing the danger of my extra blot.

***********

Same game.  How to play 16 from the bar?

is Justin score: 4 pip: 127

11 point match

pip: 158 score: 2 is Bill

XGID=-b--B-D-BA--cD-----bbbbbAA:1:1:1:61:2:4:0:11:10

to play 61

1.	XG Roller++	Bar/24 13/7	eq: -0.576
	Player: Opponent: 29.52% (G:5.35% B:0.23%) 70.48% (G:34.58% B:4.81%)
2.	XG Roller++	Bar/24 9/3	eq: -0.599 (-0.023)
	Player: Opponent: 27.06% (G:4.67% B:0.18%) 72.94% (G:30.51% B:3.45%)
3.	2-ply	Bar/18	eq: -0.749 (-0.173)
	Player: Opponent: 26.73% (G:5.09% B:0.28%) 73.27% (G:47.56% B:2.29%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

A close call.  I went for the play with the biggest upside. Bar/24, 13/7.   If he misses, I might form a counterprime.  If I get hit, at least I have an anchor and my timing should be OK for an ace point game.  Note I only get gammoned 4% more with the big play. 

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Later in the same game.  32 to play.  Run or stay?

is Justin score: 4 pip: 8

11 point match

pip: 86 score: 2 is Bill

XGID=--ABEBD----------------dA-:1:1:1:32:2:4:0:11:10

to play 32

1.	XG Roller++	24/19	eq: -1.944
	Player: Opponent: 0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 100.00% (G:80.10% B:13.89%)
2.	XG Roller++	4/2 4/1	eq: -2.047 (-0.103)
	Player: Opponent: 2.07% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 97.93% (G:84.25% B:25.96%)
3.	4-ply	24/21 3/1	eq: -1.996 (-0.053)
	Player: Opponent: 0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 100.00% (G:85.27% B:13.89%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I know you are supposed to run if you roll six or higher to get off the BG - but what if you woll 5 or smaller?

I blew this one. I made the board, 4/2, 4/1 hoping to get and hit a shot and get off the gammon altogether.  This is the wrong idea, and I guess you are just on backgammon save - even though you rolled a dink roll.  I will have to file this one away in the vault, since this comes up from time to time.
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I trail 9 away 3 away.  How to play this lemon 32?

is Justin score: 8 pip: 87

11 point match

pip: 96 score: 2 is Bill

XGID=--BBBCBAA---a-b---Bdbada--:1:-1:1:32:2:8:0:11:10

to play 32

1.	XG Roller+	18/16 8/5	eq: -0.215
	Player: Opponent: 40.35% (G:4.30% B:0.09%) 59.65% (G:4.89% B:0.11%)
2.	XG Roller+	18/16 7/4	eq: -0.216 (0.000)
	Player: Opponent: 40.38% (G:4.09% B:0.10%) 59.62% (G:4.97% B:0.10%)
3.	XG Roller+	8/6 5/2	eq: -0.244 (-0.028)
	Player: Opponent: 40.21% (G:1.66% B:0.04%) 59.79% (G:1.13% B:0.02%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I have to admit I never even considered the best play, 18/16, 8/5. 

It pays to be alert, as this is truly a special case.  Splitting seeks maximum contact, which favors me.  Splitting takes advantage of Justin's double blotted board while duplicating 4's and 2's.  It also keeps me moving forward in a close race.
As creative as this play is, it only works because of the score.  Justin can basically never recube to four since he doesn't want to see an eight cube.
**********

I trail 7 away 3 away.  41 to play.

is Justin score: 8 pip: 144

11 point match

pip: 188 score: 4 is Bill

XGID=-----bE-B---bD--bcAf----C-:0:0:1:41:4:8:0:11:10

to play 41

1.	XG Roller++	24/23 18/14	eq: -0.443
	Player: Opponent: 35.58% (G:6.07% B:0.22%) 64.42% (G:24.46% B:1.72%)
2.	XG Roller++	13/8	eq: -0.463 (-0.019)
	Player: Opponent: 35.03% (G:6.10% B:0.21%) 64.97% (G:25.05% B:2.14%)
3.	XG Roller+	24/23 13/9	eq: -0.420 (+0.023)
	Player: Opponent: 36.57% (G:6.40% B:0.21%) 63.43% (G:26.45% B:2.37%)
4.	XG Roller+	24/23 24/20	eq: -0.452 (-0.009)
	Player: Opponent: 35.92% (G:6.28% B:0.21%) 64.08% (G:27.50% B:1.96%)
5.	4-ply	24/23 6/2	eq: -0.456 (-0.012)
	Player: Opponent: 35.25% (G:6.42% B:0.21%) 64.75% (G:26.87% B:2.40%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I triple split with 24/23, 24/20.  Not the worst move ever, but a bad conceptual error.

Three on the ace is ridiculous so I must get off that point - but I should keep the anchor.  Justin position is stacked and stripped, my anchor is very valuable.  after my triple split play, most of Justin's rolls either point on me and /or hit at least two checkers.  There is no reason to allow this.  Also I should note that Justin does not have a priming formation here, so I don't have to go balls tothe wall for an advanced anchor. 
So, 24/23 with the ace is good, again three on the ace makes one want to throw in your mouth a little bit.  And with the four, 13/9 is the technical play.  the principal is, place yoour blots where he has to pay to hit you.
Sitting on the bar point is a classic distraction play, Justin would much rather make a home board point than hit on the bar point, even if he makes it.  He has to break his golder anchor to hit in the outfield, and pointing on the duece point is not really what he wants either.

Thinking about all this logically, it all seems to obvious.  I guess at the board I simply panicked.
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Later in the same game.  I still trail 7 away 3 away.  42 to play from the air.

is Justin score: 8 pip: 145

11 point match

pip: 168 score: 4 is Bill

XGID=----abEBB---bB-b-aBcbA--bA:0:0:1:42:4:8:0:11:10

to play 42

1.	XG Roller++	Bar/23 21/17*	eq: +0.116
	Player: Opponent: 49.77% (G:9.61% B:0.31%) 50.23% (G:16.17% B:0.39%)
2.	XG Roller++	Bar/21 6/4*	eq: -0.043 (-0.160)
	Player: Opponent: 45.13% (G:8.98% B:0.29%) 54.87% (G:17.27% B:0.39%)
3.	XG Roller++	Bar/21 18/16	eq: -0.301 (-0.417)
	Player: Opponent: 38.93% (G:7.44% B:0.27%) 61.07% (G:23.17% B:0.53%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I really blew this one.  I made the wimp inspired play, Bar/21, 6/4.  I figured this was going to be a long game.  I should make an anchor for the long term and unstack the heavy six point.  Simple.

But way wrong.  Instead I need to man up and play Bar/23, 21/7*.  This equalizes the race and gives me the positional trumps for a long game.  True I am outboarded but let's not fear ghosts shall we?  Justin's offense is a long way from overwhleming here.  When in doubt, tap that ass.
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I trail 7 away Crawford.  52 to play.  Pay now or pay later?

is Justin score: 10 pip: 99

11 point match Crawford

pip: 95 score: 4 is Bill

XGID=--CbB-CCB----B--a--bcbbba-:0:0:1:52:4:10:1:11:10

to play 52

1.	XG Roller+	13/11 13/8	eq: +0.361
	Player: Opponent: 67.87% (G:2.94% B:0.06%) 32.13% (G:2.13% B:0.02%)
2.	XG Roller+	13/6	eq: +0.353 (-0.009)
	Player: Opponent: 67.40% (G:3.26% B:0.08%) 32.60% (G:1.71% B:0.04%)
3.	XG Roller+	13/8 6/4	eq: +0.313 (-0.048)
	Player: Opponent: 65.49% (G:2.63% B:0.06%) 34.51% (G:2.44% B:0.03%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

Well it's basically a toss up so whatever decision you made is correct!!   I brought two down from the midpoint.  I only leave 62 as a hitter in trade for the extra builder to make the 5 point.  Also, even if he hits I might pop right back in with an ace.

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Last position.  Same game.  65 to play.

is Justin score: 10 pip: 58

11 point match Crawford

pip: 79 score: 4 is Bill

XGID=-BE-BBa-C--------a---cccdA:0:0:1:65:4:10:1:11:10

to play 65

1.	XG Roller+	Bar/20 8/2	eq: -0.408
	Player: Opponent: 29.59% (G:0.18% B:0.00%) 70.41% (G:0.62% B:0.00%)
2.	XG Roller+	Bar/19 8/3	eq: -0.415 (-0.007)
	Player: Opponent: 29.22% (G:0.33% B:0.00%) 70.78% (G:1.00% B:0.01%)
3.	XG Roller+	Bar/14	eq: -0.443 (-0.035)
	Player: Opponent: 27.83% (G:0.16% B:0.00%) 72.17% (G:0.40% B:0.00%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I made the blunder Bar/14,  keeping some hopes of hitting while maximumizing my racing chances.

But the key question - as it so often is in backgammon - whom does the contact favor?

Behind in the race, clearly contact favors me.  So I have to stay back.  Both stay back plays are about equal.  Bar/20, 8/2 stays as far back as possible, while Bar/19, 8/3 fills in the gap on the 3 point.