Justin Post 2

Beow are more decisions from my match against Justing from Novi.  These are from the second game, and I trail 11 away 10 away.

I am on roll.  Cube action?

is Justin score: 1 pip: 161

11 point match

pip: 151 score: 0 is Bill

XGID=aB---aCAC---dD-a-c-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:1:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	60.74% (G:28.79% B:0.99%)	60.90% (G:29.16% B:0.96%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	39.26% (G:9.70% B:0.50%)	39.10% (G:9.81% B:0.63%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.413	+0.861
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.592	±0.014 (+0.579..+0.606)
Double/Take:	+0.568 (-0.025)	±0.018 (+0.549..+0.586)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.408)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 5.4%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		98.3%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 11 minutes 50 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I doubled and as the rollout shows this is a close No Double.

Only a two point and the ace point sucks, but I have an extra man in the zone (nine) and a loose blot to aim at on Justin's 10 point.  Also, I can attack on the 5 point which is relatively close.  Finally, I trail slightly, which may adjust a teeny weeny bit in my favor.  All in all, I like the double.

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Later in the same game.  63 to play.  Hit on the outside or inside?

is Justin score: 1 pip: 162

11 point match

pip: 148 score: 0 is Bill

XGID=aB--aBB-C---dD-a-c-e----B-:1:-1:1:63:0:1:0:11:10

to play 63

1.	XG Roller++	24/15*	eq: +0.532
	Player: Opponent: 68.55% (G:30.40% B:1.00%) 31.45% (G:6.09% B:0.24%)
2.	XG Roller++	13/4*	eq: +0.509 (-0.023)
	Player: Opponent: 65.54% (G:36.34% B:1.21%) 34.46% (G:7.73% B:0.39%)
3.	2-ply	24/21 13/7	eq: +0.332 (-0.200)
	Player: Opponent: 62.52% (G:26.70% B:0.89%) 37.48% (G:7.75% B:0.33%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I hit on the outside, which is correct by a small margin.

The extra guy allows me to not put all my eggs in one basket.  Even if he anchors, I may speed around the board quickly before he enters his third man and begins to form an offense. 

*************
How to play this tecnhical 41?

is Justin score: 1 pip: 179

11 point match

pip: 141 score: 0 is Bill

XGID=bBaB-BB-AAA-d--A-c-e-A--B-:1:-1:1:41:0:1:0:11:10

to play 41

1.	XG Roller+	21/20 15/11	eq: +0.888
	Player: Opponent: 74.28% (G:49.55% B:1.93%) 25.72% (G:4.80% B:0.25%)
2.	XG Roller+	24/20 21/20	eq: +0.878 (-0.010)
	Player: Opponent: 74.49% (G:47.66% B:1.81%) 25.51% (G:4.22% B:0.17%)
3.	XG Roller+	21/20 10/6	eq: +0.860 (-0.027)
	Player: Opponent: 73.70% (G:48.44% B:1.83%) 26.30% (G:4.89% B:0.24%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

Not too much equity, but a mistake is a mistake. I went for 21/20, 10/6. Best is 21/10, 15/11. The best plays all involve 21/10 - probably because at least his super joker 22 doesn't enter and point on me at the same time. Also, it gives 66 as an extra roll to make the 2 point. I moved 10/6 in order to bring another direct attacked for the 2 point, which apparently is an error. Perhaps this is just overkill - I am not sure. Or perhaps, 15/11 is just more flexible. I can still blitz if he dances or just make some outside points or the 4 point if needed. I can still gammon even if he makes the duece point. But on the six point, this builder only aims at the inside - who knows?

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33 to play.

is Justin score: 1 pip: 181

11 point match

pip: 99 score: 0 is Bill

XGID=cBBB-BCA-A--d----c-eA--A--:1:-1:1:33:0:1:0:11:10

to play 33

1.	XG Roller+	23/20 9/6 7/1	eq: +1.699
	Player: Opponent: 91.68% (G:83.53% B:1.90%) 8.32% (G:0.68% B:0.02%)
2.	XG Roller+	23/20 9/3 6/3	eq: +1.666 (-0.033)
	Player: Opponent: 91.13% (G:82.34% B:1.36%) 8.87% (G:0.80% B:0.02%)
3.	4-ply	23/20 7/1 6/3	eq: +1.650 (-0.049)
	Player: Opponent: 90.73% (G:81.42% B:1.75%) 9.27% (G:0.91% B:0.03%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

Not my best roll. And looking at it now, a really lame play too. I pushed two guys past the action with  23/20, 9/3,6/3.  I must have been thinking that I was diversifiying my numbers since threes hit and twos escape.  But that's not really true.  Only 31 picks and passes.  It seems more important to keep two spares above the empty point - and 23/20, 9/6, 7/1 looks fairly obvious now.

**************
and now this 11.

is Justin score: 1 pip: 173

11 point match

pip: 73 score: 0 is Bill

XGID=aBBDbBBA--A-d---Ac-e------:1:-1:1:11:0:1:0:11:10

to play 11

1.	XG Roller+	16/15 10/8 7/6	eq: +1.475
	Player: Opponent: 87.97% (G:72.35% B:0.22%) 12.03% (G:0.79% B:0.02%)
2.	XG Roller+	16/15 10/7	eq: +1.436 (-0.039)
	Player: Opponent: 87.34% (G:70.21% B:0.19%) 12.66% (G:0.82% B:0.02%)
3.	XG Roller+	10/8 7/6 3/2	eq: +1.424 (-0.051)
	Player: Opponent: 86.52% (G:71.23% B:0.23%) 13.48% (G:1.22% B:0.03%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I made a cutesy play 10/8, 7/6, 3/2.  Playing with two blots but duplicating fours.

Actually I don't exactly understand why the computer play 16/15, 10/8, 7/6 is best.  Probably my play is just too clever.  Best is to just get on with it and challenge Justin to roll a joker now or die.  advancing my back men gets him closer to home I suppose.

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OK now things are really starting to turn around.  How to play this 51?

is Justin score: 1 pip: 168

11 point match

pip: 69 score: 0 is Bill

XGID=-BCCcBC-A---d---Ac-da-----:1:-1:1:51:0:1:0:11:10

to play 51

1.	XG Roller+	16/11 8/7	eq: +1.076
	Player: Opponent: 79.63% (G:54.88% B:0.17%) 20.37% (G:1.99% B:0.05%)
2.	XG Roller+	16/15 8/3	eq: +0.848 (-0.228)
	Player: Opponent: 72.15% (G:50.58% B:0.30%) 27.85% (G:2.34% B:0.06%)
3.	4-ply	16/11 6/5	eq: +1.003 (-0.073)
	Player: Opponent: 77.70% (G:52.00% B:0.18%) 22.30% (G:1.90% B:0.04%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I didn't really even think about this play.  "one blot theory" commanded me to move 16/15, 8/3 yet this is a double whopper.  What gives?

Best is 16/11, 8/7.  I guess I need to look at risk and reward.  Even though two blots, coming around to my side of the board puts enormous pressure on Justin to hit now ro forget about it.  If he misses, I am almost home free.  And perhaps more importantly, even if Justin does hit, many of these hits are not even so effective.  I may get fatal return shots from the bar aiming at one or both of a 5 point blot
and an outfield blot.

Compared to my play, if Jusstin misses he makes his 5 point and then I still have a long scramble home.  Most likely I leave a second direct shot when this time, Justin will organized a better offense.