**************
I trail 7 away 5 away and have 65 to play. Do you stay or do you go?
is Lyurix score: 2 pip: 129  
7 point match  
pip: 139 score: 0 is Chutzpah  
XGID=BBACAdCbcBccA:0:0:1:65:0:2:0:7:10  
to play 65 
1.  XG Roller+  24/13  eq: 0.186  
 
2.  XG Roller+  13/8 10/4  eq: 0.210 (0.025)  
 
3.  4ply  24/18 13/8  eq: 0.195 (0.010)  

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2
I stayed back, moving 13/8, 10/4, on the logic that I am behind in the race and my man on the ace point is usefully guarding the holes on Lyurix's inner board. And this is true, as far it goes.
Here is my general thinking on this point (as of this moment only!!) 
 Staying back on the ace point plays for maximum contact, and generates the most shots
 The more open points in the home board, the more effective this lone back man is.
 Staying back on the ace point gets you gammoned the most often. Sometimes you can be pointed on, or hit loose and dance  in which case you could stay on the bar a long time and get G'balled.
 The more points the opponent fills in, the more danger your lone back man is in.
 A rule of thumb  when the opponent fills in all the points in front of the back blot it is too dangerous, and time to get the hell out of there if you can.
 Keep an eye on the race  even if you are behind jumping up the the anchor can be still be correct if the race is a legitimate option.
****************
I trail 7 away 5 away and am on roll. Cube action?
is Lyurix score: 2 pip: 83  
7 point match  
pip: 75 score: 0 is Chutzpah  
XGID=BBBBCACabcebb:0:0:1:00:0:2:0:7:10  
on roll, cube action? 
Analyzed in 4ply  No double  Double/Take 
Player Winning Chances:  73.29% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)  73.29% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 
Opponent Winning Chances:  26.71% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)  26.71% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 
Cubeless Equities  +0.466  +0.945 
Cubeful Equities  
No double:  +0.750 (0.062)  
Double/Take:  +0.812  
Double/Pass:  +1.000 (+0.188)  
Best Cube action: Double / Take 
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2
I doubled and Lyruix took. Not too difficult. I posted it because I wanted to practice the various methods for estimating race cube actions.
Probably the easiest is just 10% + 2 pips.
Per Doug Zare, being on roll with a 10% lead means you win about 75% of the time. This applies for race of 50120 pips.
10% + 2 pips indicates the point of last take and 10%  2 pips would be initital double point, 10%  1 pip the redouble point.
10% of 75 is 7.5, so I can double with 5.5 pip lead and he can take up to 9.5 pips behind.
Thus, Double / Take is the cube action.
Trice is similar.
For races 62 pips or greater, point of last take is 10% of leader count + 1 pip, round up. Double within 3 pips of last take and Redouble within 2 pips.
For races of 62 pips or sammler, point of last take is (leader count  5 ) / 7, round down. Double within 3 pips of last take and Redouble within 2 pips.
I was always a bit confused on this, but I believe Trice also recommends using Ward adjustments for wastage. Apply the adjustments to both sides, and then use the Trice formula to estimate cue actions.
** Ward Adjsutments **
+/ 2 pips for each extra checker on board
+ 2 pips for each extra checker on the ace point (more than 2)
+ 1 pip for each extra checker on the deuce point (more than 2)
+ 1/2 pip for each extra outside crossover
1 pip for each additional occupied home board point
I wouldn't make any adjustments to this position, but would note that Lyurix has a better bearoff since I already have guys on my ace and his setup if more like the triangle.
So, 10% of 75 +1 is 9 pips. Point of last take is 9 pips and I can double if I lead by six pips or more. Double / Take.
Ballard Rule of 57.
This is just a more precise way to estimate Trice's last take for races of 57 pips or more.
Take Leader pipcount  33, double it, and find the nearest square root. This is point of last take.
75  33 = 44 X 2 = 88. Sq rt of 88 is about 9.5.
So once again. Double / Take
Keith Count
Below image is from Phil Simborg, an excellent summary of the Keith Count method.
That said, I don't use it because I always get confused on applying the rules.
Leader: 75 + 2 = 77. Add 1/7 or 11 = 88.
Trailer: 83 (no adjustments).
Therefore, No Double / Take per Keith (assuming I am doing it right  not sure)
EPC / Stick Method
Estimate EPC or effectice pip count for both sides.
EPC / 7 = # of Rolls to go
# of Rolls to go  3 = Trailer's point of last take
Double withing 2 pip of Last Take
Redouble within 1 pip of Last take
I would have guessed wastage of 10 for me (which is wrong) or EPC of 75+10 or 85.
I would have guessed wastage of 7 for Lyurix (which is also wrong) or EPC of 83 + 7 or 90.
85 / 7 = 12, less 3 is 9. So last take of 9 pips.
Lyurix can take with 85 + 9 = 94 pips
He has 90 which is more than 2 pips away from last take so No Double / Take using this method.
Again, not sure if I am applying this correctly.
**************
Score is 5 away 5 away and Lyurix is on roll. Cube action?
is Lyurix score: 2 pip: 136  
7 point match  
pip: 153 score: 2 is Chutzpah  
XGID=aBDCdDbacbbAA:0:0:1:00:2:2:0:7:10  
on roll, cube action? 
Analyzed in XG Roller+  No double  Double/Take 
Player Winning Chances:  71.88% (G:30.47% B:1.15%)  71.63% (G:31.60% B:1.09%) 
Opponent Winning Chances:  28.12% (G:6.05% B:0.26%)  28.37% (G:6.42% B:0.29%) 
Cubeless Equities  +0.672  +1.475 
Cubeful Equities  
No double:  +0.920 (0.080)  
Double/Take:  +1.250 (+0.250)  
Double/Pass:  +1.000  
Best Cube action: Double / Pass 
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2
Lyurix doubled and I took.
Oops, a double whopper with cheese. That will leave a mark.
Let's look at this a few different ways.
First, what does PRAT suggest?
Position  I am outboarded 3 to 2 and have 2 men back to 1, with one in the air. He has 10 men in the zone to attack with. Large advantage Lyurix
Race  I am significantly down in the race. Minus 17 pips and he is on roll and I am in the air. Significant advantage Lyurix.
Threats  He has three builders working on the 5 point  I count 10 numbers that immediately make the 5 point next turn. PLus again I have a man in the air. Significant threats.
0 for 3 adds up to a clear drop.
Besides this, Lyurix enjoys an elevated gammon value of .66 at this score  gammons are more valuable than for money. This is extra incentive to drop, not that I needed any.
What do Stick's guidelines suggest?
Below are my notes from some early issues of Stick Daily Quiz Recaps  sadly these are being discontinued.
Stick Stat. Early game blitzes that are proper Double / take are about 6568% wins and 2528% gammon wins for the stronger side (Issue 1: DQ 4.1.11)
Caution! Worst
error in blitz is to underestimate gammon losses and take a monster pass.
Stick's Early
blitz evaluation criteria: (Issue 2: DQ 4.8.11, Issue
4: DQ 4.22.11)
 The race.
I always like to note the race. It will be more important than some
positions than others but it's a valuable detail to know and often plays a
role in your decision.
 How many checkers on the bar? Big difference
between no men up versus 1 man versus 2 men up.
 Number of men in the zone. The
key number that weighs in on the possible success of a blitz is 10 men in
the zone.
 If there are more
than 10 men in the zone that's a lot of wood and you should be careful
about taking any cubes.
 If there are less
than 10 men it's generally an easy take.
 If there are
exactly 10 take it on a position by position basis weighing in the other
relevant factors.
 Diversification of men in the zone. Clearly you'd rather have your men diversified than
all stacked up on the same point.
 Efficiency of men in the zone. Again, 10 is the magic number for minimum checkers
you'd like to have in the zone but how they're put to work is important.
 As a simple example in our position above we have 10
men in the zone in a standard looking blitz position.
 Imagine if these 10 checkers instead made a prime from
from the three point to the seven point. This would be light years better
than the position we now have.
 Status of the doubler's back checkers. If the checkers are split it's a big swing versus both
of them still being on the 24 point. If one of them has already escaped it
will make a big difference.
 Additional points the person cubing has made. For each additional point the doubler has made,
especailly inner board points, you have to be more and more careful if
you're considering taking a cube.
 A good rule of
thumb is most (closer to all) positions where your opponent has a two
point board or less are takes.
 If he has a three
point board or stronger beware. There are many exceptions to this
statement of course but it's not a bad guideline.
 Defender's offensive progress. Has the defender made any real progress on his side of
the board? Any new points, esp. inner board points, will make his ability
to counter punch while the attacker is trying to carry out the blitz more
potent.
 Other Tweak factors.
 How “in the zone” are the 10 checkers? (the closer the
better for the attacker)
 What is likely to happen on the next exchange of
rolls?
 Match Score and gammon values.
So, looking at Stick's criteria  he has a 3 point board and 10 in the zone, which spells danger but not automatic drop.
Unfortunately the other factors are in Lyurix's favor:
 I have an additional point, but it is the lame 2 point. So this helps me some, but not too much.
 Lyurix's 10 men in the zone are working well by aiming at the key 5 point. As noted earlier, 10 rolls make the 5 point immediately.
 Lyurix has already escaped one back man. This is huge.
 Note Stick's stat that proper Double / take are about 6568% wins and 2528% gammon wins for the stronger side. Here XG gives 72% wins and 30% Gammons  more than the guideline. I guess we would have to infer this from the other factors.
In any case, this looks like a comfortable drop any way you look at.
**************
I trail 3 away 1 away Post crawford and have 55 to play.
is Lyurix score: 6 pip: 159  
7 point match  
pip: 156 score: 4 is Chutzpah  
XGID=aEaCdFaceA:0:0:1:55:4:6:0:7:10  
to play 55 
1.  XG Roller+  13/8(2) 6/1*(2)  eq: +0.695  
 
2.  XG Roller+  8/3(2) 6/1*(2)  eq: +0.653 (0.042)  
 
3.  2ply  13/3 8/3 6/1*  eq: +0.539 (0.156)  

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2
I made the 'automatic' but incorrect play 8/3(2), 6/1*(2).
Better is 13/8(2), 6/1*(2). This play strikes me as odd, but does crop up from time to time. I don't fell I really understand what is going on. Apparently you just don't want get hit so leaving a blot on the 8 point is simply wrong.
*************
DMP. 51 to play.
is Lyurix score: 6 pip: 125  
7 point match  
pip: 103 score: 6 is Chutzpah  
XGID=aCCCBBdBacbbb:0:0:1:51:6:6:0:7:10  
to play 51 
1.  XG Roller+  6/1 5/4  eq: +0.544  
 
2.  XG Roller+  14/13 14/9  eq: +0.474 (0.070)  
 
3.  4ply  14/8  eq: +0.461 (0.083)  

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2
I elected to Pay now, moving 14/9, 14/13 and duplicating ones. This was the wrong idea, and the better play was the ugly but safe 6/1, 5/4.
I guess the goal is simply to come home safe and win the game. Therefore, safety is a premium and you don't want to leave a shot if you don't have to. Here, the roll plays, sort of ugly, but it plays. Next time, if I roll two bigs I can simply jump past his midpoint while if I roll an ace or a duece I can play safe once more and wait for a better roll to either clear or attack his blot.
************
Still DMP. Next roll. How to play 41?
is Lyurix score: 6 pip: 117  
7 point match  
pip: 97 score: 6 is Chutzpah  
XGID=aCCCBBAbAaaacbbb:0:0:1:41:6:6:0:7:10  
to play 41 
1.  XG Roller+  13/9 5/4  eq: +0.694  
 
2.  XG Roller+  13/9 4/3  eq: +0.577 (0.117)  
 
3.  4ply  13/8  eq: +0.708 (+0.014)  

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2
I completed the six prime with 13/9, and slotted the next point with 4/3.Same theme as prior roll applies here. My move looks sexy but takes chances for no reason. Sure, most likely, Lyurix misses, or he hits and my prime holds up and I won anyway  but why take the chance when you don't need to?
Better was 13/9, also completing the full prime and then simply 5/4. Sure, the builders are a bit ugly but who cares? All I need to do is roll home safe and win the game.
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