My head on a platter

File this one under "I played well except for those three blunders."

I trail 7 away 3 away. Boxes to play.

is Dorbel score: 4 pip: 152

7 point match

pip: 165 score: 0 is Chutzpah

XGID=-a--CBC--b--bC--abcdB--B--:0:0:1:66:0:4:0:7:10

to play 66

1.	XG Roller++	13/1*(2)	eq: +0.559
	Player: Opponent: 53.19% (G:28.85% B:0.26%) 46.81% (G:9.57% B:0.37%)
2.	XG Roller++	20/14(2) 13/7(2)	eq: +0.226 (-0.334)
	Player: Opponent: 47.56% (G:18.50% B:0.65%) 52.44% (G:13.54% B:0.67%)
3.	2-ply	13/7(2) 13/1*	eq: +0.324 (-0.235)
	Player: Opponent: 48.62% (G:21.32% B:0.46%) 51.38% (G:11.57% B:0.37%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

20/14(2), 13/7(2).  What was I thinking?  Attack a single checker, don't prime.   Especially with that blot hanging out there.

13/1*(2) should have been clear.

*************
Later in the same game.  I am being doubled.  Take or Drop?

is Dorbel score: 4 pip: 73

7 point match

pip: 84 score: 0 is Chutzpah

XGID=-BBCBCA---------b-bbBdcb--:0:0:-1:00:0:4:0:7:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	77.46% (G:0.82% B:0.01%)	77.60% (G:0.78% B:0.01%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	22.54% (G:0.38% B:0.01%)	22.40% (G:0.37% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.554	+1.108
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.815 (-0.063)
Double/Take:	+0.878
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.122)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

At least my gut thought this was a take, though I prefered to play with my opponent from two away rather than at Crawford.

The race is almost a take by itself, plus I have some contact left and the gammons are very low.  It all adds up to a thin money take.  Add in the lopsided score and the fact that I can recube aggressively and the take is very comfortable.

***************
I trail 6 away 2 away and have 43 to play.

is Dorbel score: 5 pip: 40

7 point match

pip: 89 score: 1 is Chutzpah

XGID=-BCBCC-------------b-cdbB-:0:0:1:43:1:5:0:7:10

to play 43

1.	XG Roller+	24/17	eq: -1.110
	Player: Opponent: 7.71% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 92.29% (G:16.42% B:0.52%)
2.	XG Roller+	24/20 4/1	eq: -1.250 (-0.140)
	Player: Opponent: 7.58% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 92.42% (G:24.67% B:1.22%)
3.	3-ply	24/20 5/2	eq: -1.276 (-0.166)
	Player: Opponent: 7.33% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 92.67% (G:25.29% B:0.66%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I instantly and rather lazily played 24/17, 4/1 aiming for maximum contact but all I really accomplish is getting myself gammoned more often. Oops.