First game of a match to 9. Ray sent the initital cube, which was a very takeable backgame.

He left a shot which I hit. Now I am on roll. Cube action?

is Bill score: 0 pip: 151 | ||||||||||||||||

9 point match | ||||||||||||||||

pip: 91 score: 0 is Ray | ||||||||||||||||

XGID=-bCCaCC--Ba-a-a---abbbb--A:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:0:9:10 | ||||||||||||||||

on roll, cube action? |

Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |

Player Winning Chances: | 71.06% (G:13.37% B:0.58%) | 72.12% (G:14.47% B:0.73%) |

Opponent Winning Chances: | 28.94% (G:11.74% B:1.75%) | 27.88% (G:11.95% B:2.73%) |

Cubeless Equities | +0.426 | +0.959 |

Cubeful Equities | ||

No redouble: | +0.796 (-0.058) | ±0.010 (+0.786..+0.805) |

Redouble/Take: | +0.854 | ±0.014 (+0.839..+0.868) |

Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.146) | |

Best Cube action: Redouble / Take | ||

Rollout details | ||

1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||

Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |

Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |

Duration: 7 minutes 51 seconds |

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I correctly redoubled and Ray took.
I rolled an ugly double 5's and Ray hit me with 16 from the bar. That's right, 16, not 26.
A couple rolls later and I am starting down this 8 cube. Take or Drop?
is Ray score: 0 pip: 77 | ||||||||||||||||

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver | ||||||||||||||||

pip: 127 score: 0 is Bill | ||||||||||||||||

XGID=--ABBCC-------a-b-BccBcc--:2:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | ||||||||||||||||

on roll, cube action? |

Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |

Player Winning Chances: | 76.67% (G:11.53% B:0.09%) | 76.69% (G:11.32% B:0.08%) |

Opponent Winning Chances: | 23.33% (G:1.66% B:0.04%) | 23.31% (G:1.78% B:0.05%) |

Cubeless Equities | +0.633 | +1.259 |

Cubeful Equities | ||

No redouble: | +0.923 (-0.077) | ±0.003 (+0.920..+0.926) |

Redouble/Take: | +1.087 (+0.087) | ±0.012 (+1.075..+1.098) |

Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 | |

Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass | ||

Rollout details | ||

1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||

Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |

Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |

Duration: 4 minutes 00 second |

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02

I took though the computer shows it to be a significantly sized pass. I confess I did not attempt to calculate a takepoint here. Even if I manage to get the percentages from the ME table correctly I can't divide the numbers in my head. I always get it wrong anway, so I don't even bother to try.
Lastly, Ray left a shot during the bearoff. He has one checker off and I have a last gasp shot. Cube action?
is Ray score: 0 pip: 32 | ||||||||||||||||

9 point match | ||||||||||||||||

pip: 80 score: 0 is Bill | ||||||||||||||||

XGID=-BCBBBB--------A----aAfbe-:3:1:1:00:0:0:0:9:10 | ||||||||||||||||

on roll, cube action? |

Analyzed in XG Roller++ | No redouble | Redouble/Take |

Player Winning Chances: | 29.41% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | 29.41% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) |

Opponent Winning Chances: | 70.59% (G:0.26% B:0.00%) | 70.59% (G:1.42% B:0.00%) |

Cubeless Equities | -0.412 | -0.464 |

Cubeful Equities | ||

No redouble: | -0.378 | |

Redouble/Take: | -0.464 (-0.086) | |

Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+1.378) | |

Best Cube action: No redouble / Take | ||

Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 5.6% |

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

Another poor cube action on my part. I doubled and of course Ray took. I got lucky and rolled the ace. Ray entered as soon as I opened the board and the race was close. It went down to the last shake and I managed to win.
On the cube, I had no idea what the minimum doubling point was. I fugured I have little to lose and I win almost 30% so why not? While true, I failed to consider that I have little to gain. If I hit the shot and win I am up 8-0 crawford which is pretty darn good so there really is little point to putting the match on the line.
Dmitriy advised me that the minimum double point at any match score (and any cube level) where the players are tied is always 50%. I am going to call that "Dmitriy's rule" and try to remember that for the future.
In any case, I don't understand why if I am 30% to win and the minimum double point is 50% ... why is my cube error so small? (barely a whopper)
Part of the reason the cube error is small in EMG terms because, as you correctly noted, you don't lose much by doubling. The other thing is that EMG doesn't necessarily give you a good intuitive feeling for the size of a cube error at this match score. See Jeremy Bagai's article for more examples of EMG weirdness. http://www.fortuitouspress.com/emg.html

ReplyDelete