sixteen cube from Novi

This sequence is from my consolation match against Ray.  I can't say we got to 16 legitimately, as I made some poor cube decisions on the way to 16.  But it is entertaining.

First game of a match to 9.  Ray sent the initital cube, which was a very takeable backgame.

He left a shot which I hit.  Now I am on roll.  Cube action?

is Bill score: 0 pip: 151

9 point match

pip: 91 score: 0 is Ray

XGID=-bCCaCC--Ba-a-a---abbbb--A:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:0:9:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	71.06% (G:13.37% B:0.58%)	72.12% (G:14.47% B:0.73%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	28.94% (G:11.74% B:1.75%)	27.88% (G:11.95% B:2.73%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.426	+0.959
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.796 (-0.058)	±0.010 (+0.786..+0.805)
Redouble/Take:	+0.854	±0.014 (+0.839..+0.868)
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.146)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 7 minutes 51 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I correctly redoubled and Ray took. I rolled an ugly double 5's and Ray hit me with 16 from the bar. That's right, 16, not 26. A couple rolls later and I am starting down this 8 cube. Take or Drop?

is Ray score: 0 pip: 77

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver

pip: 127 score: 0 is Bill

XGID=--ABBCC-------a-b-BccBcc--:2:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	76.67% (G:11.53% B:0.09%)	76.69% (G:11.32% B:0.08%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	23.33% (G:1.66% B:0.04%)	23.31% (G:1.78% B:0.05%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.633	+1.259
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.923 (-0.077)	±0.003 (+0.920..+0.926)
Redouble/Take:	+1.087 (+0.087)	±0.012 (+1.075..+1.098)
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 4 minutes 00 second

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02

I took though the computer shows it to be a significantly sized pass. I confess I did not attempt to calculate a takepoint here. Even if I manage to get the percentages from the ME table correctly I can't divide the numbers in my head. I always get it wrong anway, so I don't even bother to try. Lastly, Ray left a shot during the bearoff. He has one checker off and I have a last gasp shot. Cube action?

is Ray score: 0 pip: 32

9 point match

pip: 80 score: 0 is Bill

XGID=-BCBBBB--------A----aAfbe-:3:1:1:00:0:0:0:9:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	29.41% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)	29.41% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	70.59% (G:0.26% B:0.00%)	70.59% (G:1.42% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities	-0.412	-0.464
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	-0.378
Redouble/Take:	-0.464 (-0.086)
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000 (+1.378)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 5.6%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

Another poor cube action on my part. I doubled and of course Ray took. I got lucky and rolled the ace. Ray entered as soon as I opened the board and the race was close. It went down to the last shake and I managed to win. On the cube, I had no idea what the minimum doubling point was. I fugured I have little to lose and I win almost 30% so why not? While true, I failed to consider that I have little to gain. If I hit the shot and win I am up 8-0 crawford which is pretty darn good so there really is little point to putting the match on the line. Dmitriy advised me that the minimum double point at any match score (and any cube level) where the players are tied is always 50%. I am going to call that "Dmitriy's rule" and try to remember that for the future. In any case, I don't understand why if I am 30% to win and the minimum double point is 50% ... why is my cube error so small? (barely a whopper)