Novi: Bill versus Stepan, part 2

Here are some more errors from my match against Stepan.


I lead 5 away 7 away and am on roll. Cube action?

is Stepan score: 4 pip: 163

11 point match

pip: 144 score: 6 is Bill Match

XGID=--c---EBC-A-cB---bbdB---a-:0:0:1:00:6:4:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	73.26% (G:19.33% B:0.96%)	73.28% (G:19.76% B:0.99%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	26.74% (G:4.79% B:0.13%)	26.72% (G:4.79% B:0.12%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.610	+1.227
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.852 (-0.065)
Double/Take:	+0.917
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.083)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I rolled but this is a proper double / take.

I usually avoid these "pointless doubles" sine with only a one point board the take is typically supereasy.

So even if the position is a take it could still be a double. Let's take a closer look.

I am up in the race and have nice structure. Even though I only have a one point board, I have plenty of rolls to make the 5 point or 4 point next time.

Perhaps more important, Stepan's position is quite weak.

He also only has a one-point board, and three men stuck on my 2-point. He also has a checker out of play on the ace.

Even if things go poorly for me it will a heck of a long time before I face recube. I hold the advanced anchor in his board so I can't be primed or attacked at the moment.


***************

Second roll problem. I lead 4 away 7 away. 32D-33?

is Stepan score: 4 pip: 162

11 point match

pip: 167 score: 7 is Bill Match

XGID=-b----E-C---cEaa-c-e----B-:0:0:1:33:7:4:0:11:10

to play 33

1.	XG Roller++	24/21(2) 8/5(2)	eq: +0.242
	Player: Opponent: 55.47% (G:17.17% B:0.74%) 44.53% (G:9.06% B:0.32%)
2.	XG Roller++	24/21(2) 13/10(2)	eq: +0.202 (-0.040)
	Player: Opponent: 55.07% (G:14.86% B:0.64%) 44.93% (G:9.15% B:0.31%)
3.	4-ply	24/21(2) 6/3(2)	eq: +0.204 (-0.039)
	Player: Opponent: 55.34% (G:14.98% B:0.66%) 44.66% (G:8.97% B:0.29%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I made the automatic play up and down. 24/21(2), 13/10(2).

The bot play is 24/21(2), 8/5(2).

This is one of those second rolls that I may have known at one time but have since forgotten. I suppose I should review these once in a while to try and keep fresh.

At any rate, Tapermike's rule would have applied here. Make the 5-point with double 3's if opponent has 4 builders for the 5-point.

More details for replies to 32 Down here. http://bigmoneybill.blogspot.com/2012/05/replies-to-32d.html


***************


Same game. 63 to play.

is Stepan score: 4 pip: 154

11 point match

pip: 151 score: 7 is Bill Match

XGID=---a-bE-C-B-BA-bbc-eB-----:0:0:1:63:7:4:0:11:10

to play 63

1.	XG Roller++	13/10 8/2	eq: +0.022
	Player: Opponent: 50.77% (G:7.68% B:0.17%) 49.23% (G:6.68% B:0.27%)
2.	XG Roller++	13/4	eq: -0.039 (-0.061)
	Player: Opponent: 49.16% (G:7.69% B:0.21%) 50.84% (G:7.03% B:0.26%)
3.	XG Roller++	12/3*	eq: -0.048 (-0.071)
	Player: Opponent: 49.35% (G:7.88% B:0.22%) 50.65% (G:7.96% B:0.29%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I left a blot on the best available point. 13/4. The risk seems low as he has a one point board and I'd prefer to keep men in front of him rather than dump deep.

But the computer likes 13/10, 8/2 playing totally safe. I suppose since Priming and Attacking game plans are out, I am left with trying to win the race. Thus, getting hit and losing 20 pips in the race is not the way to win the race!!

So safe and steady is the way to go and hope to win the race eventually.

Also, opponent already has better blocking structure than i do so I can't really outblock him here.


**************

I lead 3 away 6 away and have 43 to play.

is Stepan score: 5 pip: 127

11 point match

pip: 139 score: 8 is Bill Match

XGID=---aABDC----bB-c-bCbbba---:0:0:1:43:8:5:0:11:10

to play 43

1.	XG Roller++	7/3* 6/3	eq: +0.017
	Player: Opponent: 53.98% (G:14.50% B:0.34%) 46.02% (G:12.61% B:0.39%)
2.	XG Roller++	18/14 7/4	eq: +0.004 (-0.013)
	Player: Opponent: 52.51% (G:12.28% B:0.46%) 47.49% (G:9.95% B:0.34%)
3.	XG Roller++	7/4 6/2	eq: -0.098 (-0.114)
	Player: Opponent: 48.29% (G:9.90% B:0.20%) 51.71% (G:6.69% B:0.23%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I really butchered this one.

I played the blotfree and superwinpy 7/4, 6/2. Maybe I was spooked by the score and trying to play safe at all costs.

But the best way to win is to simply point on his head. 7/3*, 6/3. This puts him on the bar against a 3 - 1/2 point board, forcing Stepan to perform. Also I have return shots from the bar owing to Stepan's loose blot on his 3 point.

Another far superior play would have been 18/14, 7/4. This makes the point in order and springs my spare checker in to play. I utilize the fact that Stepan has a stripped midpoint and loose blot in his board, so most of his hits yield return shots. Also, I gain some outfield control since Stepan will like to escape his back man if he can. Finally, I get some timing with my man in the outfield assuming I am missed next turn.


*************

I lead 2 away 4 away and Stepan doubles a late stage race. Take or Drop?

is Stepan score: 7 pip: 20

11 point match

pip: 23 score: 9 is Bill Match

XGID=-B--AAB------------aa-abb-:0:0:-1:00:9:7:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in 4-ply	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	75.56% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)	75.56% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	24.44% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)	24.44% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.511	+0.789
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.703 (-0.086)
Double/Take:	+0.789
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.211)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

It turns out this a comfortable take though it sure didn't feel like an easy take at the table. I correctly took and was very fortunate to win the race and the match.

It's been a few weeks but this is what I believe I thought about at the time:

Takepoint. I knew that without any gammons I can take deeper than for money. I didn't remember 20% but figured I could take with a pip deeper deficit than money to compensate. That bit of knowledge was probably good enough to get by.


Trice (without pip count adjustments): I didn't make pip adjustment like you should. I just looked at the raw count ...
He has 20 pips, minus 5 is 15 divided by 7 is 2 so I can have 22 pips to take (for money). I have 23 so it is probably close ... but he has an extra checker and more wastage than me with an extra man on the deuce point, so it's probably a take.

Keith: Stepan has 20 pips plus 4 wastage (2 ace point + 1 deuce point + 4 point gap) is 24. Divide by 7 is 3 so adjusted count of 27.

I have 23 plus 2 points wastage for extra man on ace point or 25 total.

Difference of 2 implies Redouble / Take as cube action. So I figured the take is probably close but a take.

Novi: Bill versus Stepan, part 1

Dmitriy recorded and transcribed my round one match against Stepan. Thanks boss!!

Below are selected errors from this match. Enjoy, Bill

***************

Opening game of 11 point match. I am on roll. Cube action?

is Stepan score: 0 pip: 148

11 point match

pip: 129 score: 0 is Bill Match

XGID=-aBBbBC-----bCB--abd-ab-A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	66.59% (G:30.02% B:1.25%)	66.49% (G:31.16% B:1.25%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	33.41% (G:7.65% B:0.30%)	33.51% (G:7.82% B:0.31%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.570	+1.177
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.760 (-0.148)
Double/Take:	+0.907
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.093)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I rolled, missing a key double.

Position: I have him outboarded 4 to 2, with one man back to three.

Race: I am up about 20 pips

Threats: I am shooting at two blots, one a direct and one an indirect.

So I am up in all three key areas, this is a monster signal to double and a scary cube to take. I could see plenty of people passing this one.

So why didn't I double? I misevaluated a couple key factors.

I didn't think the gammons were so much since Stepan is already anchored.

I lack any presence in my outer board quadrant. Even if I hit, it will be along time before I can do any damage in my home board.

I figured even if I hit, Stepan is bound to come in a couple rolls. and then I have to manuever my men from the outfield to the home board without any landing points in my outer board quadrant.

In short, I downplayed the positives and overemphasized the negatives. Sounds like my general outlook on life - tough to fix that one!

**************

I trail 10 away 9 away and have 13 to play from the bar.

is Stepan score: 2 pip: 132

11 point match

pip: 137 score: 1 is Bill Match

XGID=-B-BaaB-C---bD--Aace--b--A:0:0:1:31:1:2:0:11:10

to play 31

1.	XG Roller++	Bar/24 8/5*	eq: -0.103
	Player: Opponent: 46.41% (G:16.97% B:0.70%) 53.59% (G:21.63% B:1.24%)
2.	XG Roller++	Bar/21	eq: -0.287 (-0.184)
	Player: Opponent: 43.00% (G:10.76% B:0.43%) 57.00% (G:21.21% B:0.59%)
3.	XG Roller++	Bar/24 16/13	eq: -0.289 (-0.186)
	Player: Opponent: 41.96% (G:10.55% B:0.22%) 58.04% (G:17.27% B:0.43%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I played Bar/24, 16/13. This tightens up but does little else.

I probably overemphasized the race and not wanting to get hit, along with the facto that there is some ace duplication.

But this quiet play allows Stepan to use his whole roll to do something constructive.

(Much!) better would have been Bar/24, 8/5*

Maybe the best way to look at this position is a quit from Neil Kaz - "Where would you like to fight?"

I have him outboarded. This seems like where I should take the fight. 8/5* is essentially a free shot at winning the game right here and now. Nine numbers dance after all and some entering 2's (26, 21, 25) aren't so hot either.

Stepan has only a two point board and awkward attacking formation so a hit back isn't so costly.

****************

Score is 9 away 9 away. 65 to play. Stay or Go?

is Stepan score: 2 pip: 32

11 point match

pip: 88 score: 2 is Bill Match

XGID=--BBCCBA--A---------adAce-:1:1:1:65:2:2:0:11:10

to play 65

1.	XG Roller++	10/5 7/1	eq: -0.907
	Player: Opponent: 4.48% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 95.52% (G:1.06% B:0.00%)
2.	XG Roller++	22/11	eq: -0.993 (-0.086)
	Player: Opponent: 0.32% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 99.68% (G:0.01% B:0.00%)
3.	4-ply	10/4 7/2	eq: -0.913 (-0.006)
	Player: Opponent: 4.26% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 95.74% (G:1.21% B:0.00%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

This game looked pretty hopeless, so I just ran to get off the Gammon. 22/11.

The game is pretty hopeless, but staying retains 4% win chances at the cost of only 1% gammons. Therefore, 10/5, 7/1 was best.

I figured if I stay then I have to stay at least one additional role to get a shot so what's the point.

I guess since he only 2 checkers off at the moment and I only have one man to bring around the gammon is pretty remote. I stay this roll. Then next time I go if I roll a six, when there is no G. Or I roll small and maybe make a perfect board just in time for a last gasp shot, else then I go. Barring a double, Stepan rates to have 5 or 6 men off at this time - which is plenty of time to get around. A seemingly small technical error, but a whopper nonetheless.


************

I trail 9 away 7 away and have 55 to play.

is Stepan score: 4 pip: 153

11 point match

pip: 116 score: 2 is Bill Match

XGID=---Bb-FBB-bBa--a-bbcb-A---:0:0:1:55:2:4:0:11:10

to play 55

1.	XG Roller++	7/2(2) 6/1(2)	eq: -0.365
	Player: Opponent: 36.86% (G:11.95% B:0.15%) 63.14% (G:9.30% B:0.30%)
2.	XG Roller++	11/1(2)	eq: -0.498 (-0.133)
	Player: Opponent: 32.98% (G:10.17% B:0.11%) 67.02% (G:8.45% B:0.27%)
3.	XG Roller++	11/6(2) 7/2(2)	eq: -0.563 (-0.198)
	Player: Opponent: 30.72% (G:9.69% B:0.11%) 69.28% (G:7.85% B:0.24%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I played 11/1(2), another whopper.

The best play was 7/2(2), 6/1(2). This makes a three point board at a time when an exchange of hits may occur. A useful little asset. Also this opens up 65 as a superjoker, escaping cleanly. And it keeps some outfield presence. Stepan can't play completely freely in the outfield since I have some pressure on his 15 point.

I was worried that after making the two points my position is stripped and I will be in trouble if I don't escpae. But I am going to be in trouble if I don't escape anyway. Making the board makes the most marked improvement and gives me the best chance to win if things go well.

**************

Same game. 42 to play. Hit or don't hit?

is Stepan score: 4 pip: 148

11 point match

pip: 75 score: 2 is Bill Match

XGID=-BaDbBDB---a-A--abbbbb----:0:0:1:42:2:4:0:11:10

to play 42

1.	XG Roller++	13/7	eq: +1.056
	Player: Opponent: 84.86% (G:25.69% B:0.08%) 15.14% (G:1.08% B:0.03%)
2.	XG Roller++	13/11* 11/7	eq: +0.966 (-0.090)
	Player: Opponent: 70.56% (G:48.24% B:0.63%) 29.44% (G:3.18% B:0.11%)
3.	4-ply	13/11* 6/2*	eq: +1.008 (-0.048)
	Player: Opponent: 73.05% (G:58.07% B:0.76%) 26.95% (G:4.44% B:0.19%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I hit with the quickness, 13/11*/7.

I don't think I even considered the no hit play 13/7.

Hitting jacks up my gammons by 23% but reduces my win chances by about 15%. I guess it all depends on whether Stepan enters with a deuce or not.

If he does roll a duece, his forward position is very strong and will have a very takeable backgame.

So I guess the no hit play let's me handle the cube more effectively. It is almost like a free roll gammon. I can play and play and go for the G, holding the option to bail out at the appropriate moment by simply cashing the game.

***********

Smae game. I am on roll. Cube action?

is Stepan score: 4 pip: 119

11 point match

pip: 51 score: 2 is Bill Match

XGID=-CbHaB-B--------a--bcbb-b-:0:0:1:00:2:4:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	61.29% (G:18.22% B:0.30%)	61.54% (G:18.73% B:0.30%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	38.71% (G:4.74% B:0.18%)	38.46% (G:4.72% B:0.18%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.355	+0.763
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.367 (-0.179)
Double/Take:	+0.546
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.454)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

Another decision, another whopper.

My position looked so stiff at this point, that my strategy was to double out rather than double in. So I held the cube.

But the moment of crisis is rapidly approaching. If I am going to double and get a take this is going to be the last moment.

I have two points to clear and might leave a shot or two, or I might not!

64, 62, 42, 66, 44, 33, 22, 11 clear

65, 63, 61, 54, 53, 52, 51, 43, 41, 32, 21 leaves a double shot

31 pick and pass

55 is stuck.

This seems like a poor clear to leave a double shot ratio. Scary!!

But he still has to hit the shot. Plus I have some valuable freak gammons in the mix too.

So as a rough estimate, 22 rolls leave a double shot which he hits a bit more than half of the time. For simplification, let's say he wins all games he hits. So that is 12ish games out of 36, plus he may get a shot as I later clear the 2 point. Give him say another 5-6 percent for those, and you got about 40% win chances for Stepan, not too far off from the computer estimate.

So a super easy take. Once again, the reason for the double appears to be this is basically a last roll position. I either leave a shot, or I don't. And then he either hits it or he doesn't. Simple. I am a solid favorite, so it's a double. I guess?!?!?!



And,