Novi: Bill versus Stepan, part 2

Here are some more errors from my match against Stepan.


I lead 5 away 7 away and am on roll. Cube action?

is Stepan score: 4 pip: 163

11 point match

pip: 144 score: 6 is Bill Match

XGID=--c---EBC-A-cB---bbdB---a-:0:0:1:00:6:4:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	73.26% (G:19.33% B:0.96%)	73.28% (G:19.76% B:0.99%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	26.74% (G:4.79% B:0.13%)	26.72% (G:4.79% B:0.12%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.610	+1.227
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.852 (-0.065)
Double/Take:	+0.917
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.083)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I rolled but this is a proper double / take.

I usually avoid these "pointless doubles" sine with only a one point board the take is typically supereasy.

So even if the position is a take it could still be a double. Let's take a closer look.

I am up in the race and have nice structure. Even though I only have a one point board, I have plenty of rolls to make the 5 point or 4 point next time.

Perhaps more important, Stepan's position is quite weak.

He also only has a one-point board, and three men stuck on my 2-point. He also has a checker out of play on the ace.

Even if things go poorly for me it will a heck of a long time before I face recube. I hold the advanced anchor in his board so I can't be primed or attacked at the moment.


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Second roll problem. I lead 4 away 7 away. 32D-33?

is Stepan score: 4 pip: 162

11 point match

pip: 167 score: 7 is Bill Match

XGID=-b----E-C---cEaa-c-e----B-:0:0:1:33:7:4:0:11:10

to play 33

1.	XG Roller++	24/21(2) 8/5(2)	eq: +0.242
	Player: Opponent: 55.47% (G:17.17% B:0.74%) 44.53% (G:9.06% B:0.32%)
2.	XG Roller++	24/21(2) 13/10(2)	eq: +0.202 (-0.040)
	Player: Opponent: 55.07% (G:14.86% B:0.64%) 44.93% (G:9.15% B:0.31%)
3.	4-ply	24/21(2) 6/3(2)	eq: +0.204 (-0.039)
	Player: Opponent: 55.34% (G:14.98% B:0.66%) 44.66% (G:8.97% B:0.29%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I made the automatic play up and down. 24/21(2), 13/10(2).

The bot play is 24/21(2), 8/5(2).

This is one of those second rolls that I may have known at one time but have since forgotten. I suppose I should review these once in a while to try and keep fresh.

At any rate, Tapermike's rule would have applied here. Make the 5-point with double 3's if opponent has 4 builders for the 5-point.

More details for replies to 32 Down here. http://bigmoneybill.blogspot.com/2012/05/replies-to-32d.html


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Same game. 63 to play.

is Stepan score: 4 pip: 154

11 point match

pip: 151 score: 7 is Bill Match

XGID=---a-bE-C-B-BA-bbc-eB-----:0:0:1:63:7:4:0:11:10

to play 63

1.	XG Roller++	13/10 8/2	eq: +0.022
	Player: Opponent: 50.77% (G:7.68% B:0.17%) 49.23% (G:6.68% B:0.27%)
2.	XG Roller++	13/4	eq: -0.039 (-0.061)
	Player: Opponent: 49.16% (G:7.69% B:0.21%) 50.84% (G:7.03% B:0.26%)
3.	XG Roller++	12/3*	eq: -0.048 (-0.071)
	Player: Opponent: 49.35% (G:7.88% B:0.22%) 50.65% (G:7.96% B:0.29%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I left a blot on the best available point. 13/4. The risk seems low as he has a one point board and I'd prefer to keep men in front of him rather than dump deep.

But the computer likes 13/10, 8/2 playing totally safe. I suppose since Priming and Attacking game plans are out, I am left with trying to win the race. Thus, getting hit and losing 20 pips in the race is not the way to win the race!!

So safe and steady is the way to go and hope to win the race eventually.

Also, opponent already has better blocking structure than i do so I can't really outblock him here.


**************

I lead 3 away 6 away and have 43 to play.

is Stepan score: 5 pip: 127

11 point match

pip: 139 score: 8 is Bill Match

XGID=---aABDC----bB-c-bCbbba---:0:0:1:43:8:5:0:11:10

to play 43

1.	XG Roller++	7/3* 6/3	eq: +0.017
	Player: Opponent: 53.98% (G:14.50% B:0.34%) 46.02% (G:12.61% B:0.39%)
2.	XG Roller++	18/14 7/4	eq: +0.004 (-0.013)
	Player: Opponent: 52.51% (G:12.28% B:0.46%) 47.49% (G:9.95% B:0.34%)
3.	XG Roller++	7/4 6/2	eq: -0.098 (-0.114)
	Player: Opponent: 48.29% (G:9.90% B:0.20%) 51.71% (G:6.69% B:0.23%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I really butchered this one.

I played the blotfree and superwinpy 7/4, 6/2. Maybe I was spooked by the score and trying to play safe at all costs.

But the best way to win is to simply point on his head. 7/3*, 6/3. This puts him on the bar against a 3 - 1/2 point board, forcing Stepan to perform. Also I have return shots from the bar owing to Stepan's loose blot on his 3 point.

Another far superior play would have been 18/14, 7/4. This makes the point in order and springs my spare checker in to play. I utilize the fact that Stepan has a stripped midpoint and loose blot in his board, so most of his hits yield return shots. Also, I gain some outfield control since Stepan will like to escape his back man if he can. Finally, I get some timing with my man in the outfield assuming I am missed next turn.


*************

I lead 2 away 4 away and Stepan doubles a late stage race. Take or Drop?

is Stepan score: 7 pip: 20

11 point match

pip: 23 score: 9 is Bill Match

XGID=-B--AAB------------aa-abb-:0:0:-1:00:9:7:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in 4-ply	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	75.56% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)	75.56% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	24.44% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)	24.44% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.511	+0.789
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.703 (-0.086)
Double/Take:	+0.789
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.211)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

It turns out this a comfortable take though it sure didn't feel like an easy take at the table. I correctly took and was very fortunate to win the race and the match.

It's been a few weeks but this is what I believe I thought about at the time:

Takepoint. I knew that without any gammons I can take deeper than for money. I didn't remember 20% but figured I could take with a pip deeper deficit than money to compensate. That bit of knowledge was probably good enough to get by.


Trice (without pip count adjustments): I didn't make pip adjustment like you should. I just looked at the raw count ...
He has 20 pips, minus 5 is 15 divided by 7 is 2 so I can have 22 pips to take (for money). I have 23 so it is probably close ... but he has an extra checker and more wastage than me with an extra man on the deuce point, so it's probably a take.

Keith: Stepan has 20 pips plus 4 wastage (2 ace point + 1 deuce point + 4 point gap) is 24. Divide by 7 is 3 so adjusted count of 27.

I have 23 plus 2 points wastage for extra man on ace point or 25 total.

Difference of 2 implies Redouble / Take as cube action. So I figured the take is probably close but a take.