July 15, 2013

Novi: Bill versus Stepan, part 1

Dmitriy recorded and transcribed my round one match against Stepan. Thanks boss!!

Below are selected errors from this match. Enjoy, Bill

***************

Opening game of 11 point match. I am on roll. Cube action?

is Stepan

score: 0
pip: 148
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 129
score: 0

is Bill Match
XGID=-aBBbBC-----bCB--abd-ab-A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 66.59% (G:30.02% B:1.25%) 66.49% (G:31.16% B:1.25%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 33.41% (G:7.65% B:0.30%) 33.51% (G:7.82% B:0.31%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.570 +1.177
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.760 (-0.148)
xg Double/Take:+0.907
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.093)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2


I rolled, missing a key double.

Position: I have him outboarded 4 to 2, with one man back to three.

Race: I am up about 20 pips

Threats: I am shooting at two blots, one a direct and one an indirect.

So I am up in all three key areas, this is a monster signal to double and a scary cube to take. I could see plenty of people passing this one.

So why didn't I double? I misevaluated a couple key factors.

I didn't think the gammons were so much since Stepan is already anchored.

I lack any presence in my outer board quadrant. Even if I hit, it will be along time before I can do any damage in my home board.

I figured even if I hit, Stepan is bound to come in a couple rolls. and then I have to manuever my men from the outfield to the home board without any landing points in my outer board quadrant.

In short, I downplayed the positives and overemphasized the negatives. Sounds like my general outlook on life - tough to fix that one!

**************

I trail 10 away 9 away and have 13 to play from the bar.

is Stepan

score: 2
pip: 132
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 137
score: 1

is Bill Match
XGID=-B-BaaB-C---bD--Aace--b--A:0:0:1:31:1:2:0:11:10
to play 31

1.XG Roller++Bar/24 8/5* eq: -0.103
Player:
Opponent:
46.41% (G:16.97% B:0.70%)
53.59% (G:21.63% B:1.24%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/21eq: -0.287 (-0.184)
Player:
Opponent:
43.00% (G:10.76% B:0.43%)
57.00% (G:21.21% B:0.59%)
3.XG Roller++Bar/24 16/13eq: -0.289 (-0.186)
Player:
Opponent:
41.96% (G:10.55% B:0.22%)
58.04% (G:17.27% B:0.43%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2


I played Bar/24, 16/13. This tightens up but does little else.

I probably overemphasized the race and not wanting to get hit, along with the facto that there is some ace duplication.

But this quiet play allows Stepan to use his whole roll to do something constructive.

(Much!) better would have been Bar/24, 8/5*

Maybe the best way to look at this position is a quit from Neil Kaz - "Where would you like to fight?"

I have him outboarded. This seems like where I should take the fight. 8/5* is essentially a free shot at winning the game right here and now. Nine numbers dance after all and some entering 2's (26, 21, 25) aren't so hot either.

Stepan has only a two point board and awkward attacking formation so a hit back isn't so costly.

****************

Score is 9 away 9 away. 65 to play. Stay or Go?

is Stepan

score: 2
pip: 32
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 88
score: 2

is Bill Match
XGID=--BBCCBA--A---------adAce-:1:1:1:65:2:2:0:11:10
to play 65

1.XG Roller++10/5 7/1eq: -0.907
Player:
Opponent:
4.48% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
95.52% (G:1.06% B:0.00%)
2.XG Roller++22/11eq: -0.993 (-0.086)
Player:
Opponent:
0.32% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
99.68% (G:0.01% B:0.00%)
3.4-ply10/4 7/2eq: -0.913 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
4.26% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
95.74% (G:1.21% B:0.00%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

This game looked pretty hopeless, so I just ran to get off the Gammon. 22/11.

The game is pretty hopeless, but staying retains 4% win chances at the cost of only 1% gammons. Therefore, 10/5, 7/1 was best.

I figured if I stay then I have to stay at least one additional role to get a shot so what's the point.

I guess since he only 2 checkers off at the moment and I only have one man to bring around the gammon is pretty remote. I stay this roll. Then next time I go if I roll a six, when there is no G. Or I roll small and maybe make a perfect board just in time for a last gasp shot, else then I go. Barring a double, Stepan rates to have 5 or 6 men off at this time - which is plenty of time to get around. A seemingly small technical error, but a whopper nonetheless.


************

I trail 9 away 7 away and have 55 to play.


is Stepan

score: 4
pip: 153
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 116
score: 2

is Bill Match
XGID=---Bb-FBB-bBa--a-bbcb-A---:0:0:1:55:2:4:0:11:10
to play 55

1.XG Roller++7/2(2) 6/1(2)eq: -0.365
Player:
Opponent:
36.86% (G:11.95% B:0.15%)
63.14% (G:9.30% B:0.30%)
2.XG Roller++11/1(2)eq: -0.498 (-0.133)
Player:
Opponent:
32.98% (G:10.17% B:0.11%)
67.02% (G:8.45% B:0.27%)
3.XG Roller++11/6(2) 7/2(2)eq: -0.563 (-0.198)
Player:
Opponent:
30.72% (G:9.69% B:0.11%)
69.28% (G:7.85% B:0.24%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2



I played 11/1(2), another whopper.

The best play was 7/2(2), 6/1(2). This makes a three point board at a time when an exchange of hits may occur. A useful little asset. Also this opens up 65 as a superjoker, escaping cleanly. And it keeps some outfield presence. Stepan can't play completely freely in the outfield since I have some pressure on his 15 point.

I was worried that after making the two points my position is stripped and I will be in trouble if I don't escpae. But I am going to be in trouble if I don't escape anyway. Making the board makes the most marked improvement and gives me the best chance to win if things go well.

**************

Same game. 42 to play. Hit or don't hit?

is Stepan

score: 4
pip: 148
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 75
score: 2

is Bill Match
XGID=-BaDbBDB---a-A--abbbbb----:0:0:1:42:2:4:0:11:10
to play 42

1.XG Roller++13/7eq: +1.056
Player:
Opponent:
84.86% (G:25.69% B:0.08%)
15.14% (G:1.08% B:0.03%)
2.XG Roller++13/11* 11/7eq: +0.966 (-0.090)
Player:
Opponent:
70.56% (G:48.24% B:0.63%)
29.44% (G:3.18% B:0.11%)
3.4-ply13/11* 6/2* eq: +1.008 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent:
73.05% (G:58.07% B:0.76%)
26.95% (G:4.44% B:0.19%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2


I hit with the quickness, 13/11*/7.

I don't think I even considered the no hit play 13/7.

Hitting jacks up my gammons by 23% but reduces my win chances by about 15%. I guess it all depends on whether Stepan enters with a deuce or not.

If he does roll a duece, his forward position is very strong and will have a very takeable backgame.

So I guess the no hit play let's me handle the cube more effectively. It is almost like a free roll gammon. I can play and play and go for the G, holding the option to bail out at the appropriate moment by simply cashing the game.

***********

Smae game. I am on roll. Cube action?


is Stepan

score: 4
pip: 119
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 51
score: 2

is Bill Match
XGID=-CbHaB-B--------a--bcbb-b-:0:0:1:00:2:4:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 61.29% (G:18.22% B:0.30%) 61.54% (G:18.73% B:0.30%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 38.71% (G:4.74% B:0.18%) 38.46% (G:4.72% B:0.18%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.355 +0.763
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.367 (-0.179)
xg Double/Take:+0.546
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.454)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2


Another decision, another whopper.

My position looked so stiff at this point, that my strategy was to double out rather than double in. So I held the cube.

But the moment of crisis is rapidly approaching. If I am going to double and get a take this is going to be the last moment.

I have two points to clear and might leave a shot or two, or I might not!

64, 62, 42, 66, 44, 33, 22, 11 clear

65, 63, 61, 54, 53, 52, 51, 43, 41, 32, 21 leaves a double shot

31 pick and pass

55 is stuck.

This seems like a poor clear to leave a double shot ratio. Scary!!

But he still has to hit the shot. Plus I have some valuable freak gammons in the mix too.

So as a rough estimate, 22 rolls leave a double shot which he hits a bit more than half of the time. For simplification, let's say he wins all games he hits. So that is 12ish games out of 36, plus he may get a shot as I later clear the 2 point. Give him say another 5-6 percent for those, and you got about 40% win chances for Stepan, not too far off from the computer estimate.

So a super easy take. Once again, the reason for the double appears to be this is basically a last roll position. I either leave a shot, or I don't. And then he either hits it or he doesn't. Simple. I am a solid favorite, so it's a double. I guess?!?!?!



And,

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