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December 30, 2012

My head on a platter

File this one under "I played well except for those three blunders."

I trail 7 away 3 away. Boxes to play.
is Dorbel

score: 4
pip: 152
                         
7 point match
                          pip: 165
score: 0

is Chutzpah
XGID=-a--CBC--b--bC--abcdB--B--:0:0:1:66:0:4:0:7:10
to play 66

1.XG Roller++13/1*(2) eq: +0.559
Player:
Opponent:		53.19% (G:28.85% B:0.26%)
46.81% (G:9.57% B:0.37%)
2.XG Roller++20/14(2) 13/7(2)eq: +0.226 (-0.334)
Player:
Opponent:		47.56% (G:18.50% B:0.65%)
52.44% (G:13.54% B:0.67%)
3.2-ply13/7(2) 13/1* eq: +0.324 (-0.235)
Player:
Opponent:		48.62% (G:21.32% B:0.46%)
51.38% (G:11.57% B:0.37%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2
20/14(2), 13/7(2).  What was I thinking?  Attack a single checker, don't prime.   Especially with that blot hanging out there.

13/1*(2) should have been clear.

*************
Later in the same game.  I am being doubled.  Take or Drop?

is Dorbel

score: 4
pip: 73
                         
7 point match
                          pip: 84
score: 0

is Chutzpah
XGID=-BBCBCA---------b-bbBdcb--:0:0:-1:00:0:4:0:7:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 77.46% (G:0.82% B:0.01%) 77.60% (G:0.78% B:0.01%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 22.54% (G:0.38% B:0.01%) 22.40% (G:0.37% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.554 +1.108
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.815 (-0.063)
xg Double/Take:+0.878
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.122)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

At least my gut thought this was a take, though I prefered to play with my opponent from two away rather than at Crawford.

The race is almost a take by itself, plus I have some contact left and the gammons are very low.  It all adds up to a thin money take.  Add in the lopsided score and the fact that I can recube aggressively and the take is very comfortable.

***************
I trail 6 away 2 away and have 43 to play.

is Dorbel

score: 5
pip: 40
                         
7 point match
                          pip: 89
score: 1

is Chutzpah
XGID=-BCBCC-------------b-cdbB-:0:0:1:43:1:5:0:7:10
to play 43

1.XG Roller+24/17eq: -1.110
Player:
Opponent:		7.71% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
92.29% (G:16.42% B:0.52%)
2.XG Roller+24/20 4/1eq: -1.250 (-0.140)
Player:
Opponent:		7.58% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
92.42% (G:24.67% B:1.22%)
3.3-ply24/20 5/2eq: -1.276 (-0.166)
Player:
Opponent:		7.33% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
92.67% (G:25.29% B:0.66%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2
I instantly and rather lazily played 24/17, 4/1 aiming for maximum contact but all I really accomplish is getting myself gammoned more often. Oops.
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December 21, 2012

Experiment: Game Flow Chart

Below is an experiment.  Charting wins and losses and equity on a move by move basis.  Idea is to visually see how the win chances, gammons, and associated equity changes during course of a game.  This is a short game, just to test the idea.  Comments welcome.



Each plot point is the position after my move.  Screen shots show the positions if you want to follow along.

1.  I win the opening roll, but the game is still about 50-50 with normal 13% gammons for both sides.

2. Opponent points on my head on the five point and I roll dirt from the bar.  Now I already only 43% to win and opponent's gammons have jumped to 18%

3.  After anchoring on the duce point I am down to 37% wins and still get G'd 18% even with the anchor.  Note my play wasn't best here.

4.  Double 2's was a decent roll but his double 1's was better.  My win chances have dropped to just 35% now.

5.  Double 4 was a really good roll that gives me chances to counterprime.  Even though his Double fives filled in another point it did burn some outside timing.  I am back to 43%

6.  Double 1's was a huge joker and now I am slightly better than 50%.  We both have six primes and I am anchored at the edge and own the cube (good!) but I am a slightly outgunned in the timing department.  I am now 52% to win.

7.  Not anymore.  Double 4 was an anti-joker and now I can cash the game.  Being 77% to win with another 20% gammons I am even close to being too good.



Game 1
 Chutzpah : 0                          trafalgar : 0
  1) 54: 24/20 13/8                    31: 8/5* 6/5                     
  2) 52: Bar/18                        51: 13/7*                        
  3) 21: Bar/23 24/23                   Doubles => 2                    
  4)  Takes                            11: 6/4(2)                       
  5) 22: 13/11(2) 6/4(2)               55: 13/3(2)                      
  6) 44: 13/9(2) 11/7(2)               22: 24/22 13/7                   
  7) 11: 8/5 6/5                       44: 13/5 8/4(2)                  
  8)  Doubles => 4                      Drops                           
      Wins 2 point

is trafalgar

score: 0
pip: 167
                         
7 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 0

is Chutzpah
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:7:10
to play 54

1.Book124/20 13/8eq: +0.015
Player:
Opponent:		50.37% (G:13.32% B:0.65%)
49.63% (G:12.96% B:0.46%)
2.Book113/9 13/8eq: +0.012 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:		49.83% (G:14.67% B:0.69%)
50.17% (G:13.27% B:0.63%)
3.Book124/15eq: -0.008 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:		50.30% (G:11.57% B:0.48%)
49.70% (G:12.90% B:0.46%)
 
1 Generated by GameSite 2000, Ltd on 5/21/2011 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
Analyzed in XG Roller++
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2
is trafalgar

score: 0
pip: 163
                         
7 point match
                          pip: 163
score: 0

is Chutzpah
XGID=-b----E-D---eD---b-db---AA:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:7:10
to play 52

1.XG Roller++Bar/18eq: -0.335
Player:
Opponent:		42.93% (G:10.02% B:0.44%)
57.07% (G:18.25% B:0.70%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/23 13/8eq: -0.343 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:		42.34% (G:10.72% B:0.47%)
57.66% (G:17.90% B:0.70%)
3.3-plyBar/23 8/3eq: -0.452 (-0.117)
Player:
Opponent:		39.89% (G:10.12% B:0.50%)
60.11% (G:20.82% B:1.11%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2
is trafalgar

score: 0
pip: 157
                         
7 point match
                          pip: 163
score: 0

is Chutzpah
XGID=-b----E-D---dD---badb---AA:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:7:10
to play 21

1.XG Roller++Bar/23 6/5eq: -0.568
Player:
Opponent:		38.20% (G:8.88% B:0.37%)
61.80% (G:22.72% B:1.18%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/22eq: -0.574 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:		37.71% (G:8.90% B:0.39%)
62.29% (G:22.07% B:0.87%)
3.XG Roller++Bar/23 8/7eq: -0.575 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:		37.92% (G:9.14% B:0.42%)
62.08% (G:23.27% B:1.22%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2
is trafalgar

score: 0
pip: 153
                         
7 point match
                          pip: 160
score: 0

is Chutzpah
XGID=-b----E-D---dD---babbb-B--:1:1:1:22:0:0:0:7:10
to play 22

1.XG Roller++13/11(2) 6/4(2)eq: -0.271
Player:
Opponent:		34.76% (G:10.18% B:0.57%)
65.24% (G:18.06% B:0.86%)
2.XG Roller++13/11 8/4 6/4eq: -0.286 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:		34.24% (G:10.21% B:0.56%)
65.76% (G:18.32% B:0.93%)
3.XG Roller++13/9 6/4(2)eq: -0.286 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:		34.20% (G:10.17% B:0.56%)
65.80% (G:18.32% B:0.89%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2
is trafalgar

score: 0
pip: 133
                         
7 point match
                          pip: 152
score: 0

is Chutzpah
XGID=-b--B-C-D--BbB---babbbbB--:1:1:1:44:0:0:0:7:10
to play 44

1.XG Roller++13/9(2) 11/7(2)eq: -0.026
Player:
Opponent:		43.10% (G:11.56% B:0.58%)
56.90% (G:15.86% B:0.75%)
2.XG Roller++13/5(2)eq: -0.072 (-0.046)
Player:
Opponent:		41.15% (G:11.82% B:0.62%)
58.85% (G:15.70% B:0.75%)
3.2-ply11/3(2)eq: -0.307 (-0.281)
Player:
Opponent:		33.13% (G:8.76% B:0.47%)
66.87% (G:16.49% B:0.70%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2
is trafalgar

score: 0
pip: 125
                         
7 point match
                          pip: 136
score: 0

is Chutzpah
XGID=-a-aB-CBDB--a----bbbbbbB--:1:1:1:11:0:0:0:7:10
to play 11

1.XG Roller++8/5 6/5eq: +0.245
Player:
Opponent:		52.29% (G:13.59% B:0.56%)
47.71% (G:12.59% B:0.52%)
2.1-ply8/4eq: -0.415 (-0.660)
Player:
Opponent:		29.44% (G:5.16% B:0.29%)
70.56% (G:14.98% B:0.49%)
3.1-ply8/7 8/5eq: -0.415 (-0.660)
Player:
Opponent:		32.15% (G:5.41% B:0.30%)
67.85% (G:21.55% B:1.01%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2
is trafalgar

score: 0
pip: 109
                         
7 point match
                          pip: 132
score: 0

is Chutzpah
XGID=-a-aBBBBCB--------bbcdbB--:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:7:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 77.67% (G:20.23% B:0.90%) 78.00% (G:20.21% B:0.97%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 22.33% (G:4.94% B:0.20%) 22.00% (G:5.01% B:0.22%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.725 +1.448
Cubeful Equities
     No redouble:+0.951 (-0.049)
     Redouble/Take:+1.293 (+0.293)
xg Redouble/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2
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