Knightmoves22 (bonehead cubes)

A series of boneheaded cube decisions by me, from an online match against Knightmoves22.

First a checker error.  53 to play.

is Knightmoves22 score: 0 pip: 145

7 point match

pip: 136 score: 0 is Chutzpah

XGID=-BaBa-C-B--AbC---cce-A-A--:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:7:10

to play 53

1.	XG Roller++	21/16 11/8	eq: +0.092
	Player: Opponent: 52.12% (G:16.29% B:0.41%) 47.88% (G:13.65% B:0.53%)
2.	XG Roller++	23/15	eq: +0.056 (-0.036)
	Player: Opponent: 51.41% (G:14.94% B:0.39%) 48.59% (G:13.91% B:0.65%)
3.	XG Roller++	21/13	eq: +0.006 (-0.086)
	Player: Opponent: 49.43% (G:15.26% B:0.34%) 50.57% (G:12.82% B:0.49%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I ran the midpoint.  Safe, obvious.  Pick pu the dice.

To my suprise this is a whopper of an error.  I never saw a second play, and in fact there are two superior options to my "obvious" choice.

Best is 21/16, 11/8.  I guess the idea is to make him pay to hit the blot.  Hitting on his side of the board breaks his midpoint, ceding outfield control and also gains a few pips less in the race, and also doesn't allow him to simulatenously hit and escape.

Also good is 23/15, a play I would likely never consider.  I suppose the guy on the two point is the most difficult to get going and we are up in the race, so we can take some chanecs while he only has a 1-point board.  This is blotty but I have good connectivity.  All blots support each other by being less than six pips apart.

***************
I am on roll.  Cube action?

is Knightmoves22 score: 0 pip: 44

7 point match

pip: 39 score: 0 is Chutzpah

XGID=-CBCCAA------------c-dbb--:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:7:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	67.61% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)	67.56% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	32.39% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)	32.44% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.352	+0.728
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.612
Redouble/Take:	+0.496 (-0.116)
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.388)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 18.7%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I redoubled and Knightmoves22 took.

This was superficial thinking on my part.  I saw the pips as 39 to 44 lead, and figured as follows.  Using Trice, point of last take is 39 - 5 divided by 7 or 5.  I am up 5 pips so let's recube and let him worry about the take.

Again, this is too shallow an analysis.  I need to consider the relative EPC's of our repsective positions.  In other words, I need to make adjustments for distribution.  My position is sort of flat so let's add 10 pips there and also penalaive myself about 4 pips for extra men on the ace point.  This gives me an adjusted pip count of about 53.

Knightmoves22 has a flatish position - the gap on 5 point is bad but nobody on the ace is good, so let's just call these a wash and add 10 pips and call it a day.  Probably wrong but I don't claim to be good at this.  Anyway that gives Knightmoves an adjusted pip count of about 54.

Up one pip (53 to 54) in a medium length race is obviously no recube.  No redouble / Take.

************

I lead 3 away 6 away and Knightmoves doubles.  Take or Drop?

is Knightmoves22 score: 1 pip: 133

7 point match

pip: 141 score: 4 is Chutzpah

XGID=-a---DC-C---eC--Aa-bbbb-A-:0:0:-1:00:4:1:0:7:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller+	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	68.93% (G:28.24% B:0.76%)	68.89% (G:28.56% B:0.70%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	31.07% (G:6.20% B:0.25%)	31.11% (G:6.37% B:0.27%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.595	+1.299
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.914 (-0.086)
Double/Take:	+1.231 (+0.231)
Double/Pass:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I took.  big time oops.

Let's look at Joe Sylvester's criteria first - Position, Pips, Threats.

I am outboarded, down in the race, and opponent is shooting at a loose blot.  I am down in all phases of the game, opponent has significant threats and to top it all off I get gammoned a lot.  Add it all up and it an easy drop.  Factor in the elevated gammon value at this score and you get insult to injury with this boneheaded take.

**********
I lead 3 away 4 away and am facing a recube for the match?  Take or Drop?

is Knightmoves22 score: 3 pip: 132

7 point match

pip: 142 score: 4 is Chutzpah

XGID=-a-BBBB-C---c-b--aBccAb--A:1:-1:-1:00:4:3:0:7:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	56.82% (G:23.39% B:0.57%)	57.64% (G:22.17% B:0.61%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	43.18% (G:12.58% B:0.64%)	42.36% (G:12.42% B:0.62%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.476	+0.889
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.794 (-0.095)
Redouble/Take:	+0.889
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.111)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I don't feel too bad about this one, despite the size of the error.  I knew the lost gammons didn't matter and that my takepoint was 40%, so the question is simply can I win 40% of the time?

OK so I misjudged the position but at least I had my bearings right.

The important features giving me good winning chances are:

• I have a very strong board
• Knightmoves still has a man trapped on my ace point. 
• Knightmoves only has a 3 point board - I have decent prospects of establishing an anchor somewhere in which case I have a solid game.
• Any hits from the bar from me are deadly - Knightmoves has to be careful in conducting this blitz.
• He only has nine men within direct attacking range.