robotkiller

Below are selected errors from the opening game of a 7 point online match against robotkiller.

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I am on roll.  Cube action?

is robotkiller score: 0 pip: 187

7 point match

pip: 155 score: 0 is Chutzpah

XGID=-b-Ba-CaC---dE---c-dA-A---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:7:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	60.64% (G:24.25% B:2.36%)	60.74% (G:24.21% B:2.39%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	39.36% (G:7.69% B:0.29%)	39.26% (G:7.60% B:0.29%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.406	+0.842
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.582
Double/Take:	+0.519 (-0.063)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.418)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 11.6%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I am up in the race, have him outboarded and am shooting at two blots with the potential to blitz.

I doubled and robotkiller took.  And yet the proper cube action is No double.  What gives?

My guess is that my extra home board point, the 3 point, is a bit too deep.  The priming threat is not as strong so I have mostly the blitz threat only.  However, robot is already anchored so this threat is diminished.

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I altered the position a bit so that I have the 4 point instead of the 3 point and now the position is borderline cube.  I have more of a two-way game now, where I have potential to semi-blitz or prime.

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 186

7 point match

pip: 157 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=-b--BaCaC---dE---c-dA-A---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:7:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	62.98% (G:23.63% B:2.24%)	62.99% (G:23.73% B:2.25%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	37.02% (G:6.98% B:0.24%)	37.01% (G:6.97% B:0.25%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.452	+0.934
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.637
Double/Take:	+0.634 (-0.003)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.363)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 0.8%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

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Very next roll.  How to play 32?

is robotkiller score: 0 pip: 187

7 point match

pip: 155 score: 0 is Chutzpah

XGID=-b-Ba-CaC---dE---c-dA-A---:1:-1:1:32:0:0:0:7:10

to play 32

1.	XG Roller++	22/20 13/10	eq: +0.146
	Player: Opponent: 58.59% (G:18.93% B:1.04%) 41.41% (G:7.49% B:0.23%)
2.	XG Roller++	13/10 6/4*	eq: +0.073 (-0.074)
	Player: Opponent: 55.86% (G:20.07% B:1.63%) 44.14% (G:9.80% B:0.40%)
3.	4-ply	20/15	eq: +0.066 (-0.081)
	Player: Opponent: 56.55% (G:18.24% B:1.10%) 43.45% (G:9.92% B:0.35%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I pounced, like I always do.  13/10, 6/4*.  But I am overlooking that I actually have a three-way game here.  There are the semi-blitz and prime plans as I already mentioned.  But there is also the simple racing plan.

And it looks this dud of a roll best caters to a race.  22/02, 13/10 anchors up, duplicated 3's and 6's and preserves the most of my racing lead that I can.  A long game is ahead and while it would be nice to have the cube back at least I am still a solid favorite.

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Later in the same game and I have 64 to play.

is robotkiller score: 0 pip: 175

7 point match

pip: 122 score: 0 is Chutzpah

XGID=-aBBBbBb-D--b-A-ab-c-Bb---:1:-1:1:64:0:0:0:7:10

to play 64

1.	XG Roller++	14/4	eq: +0.140
	Player: Opponent: 56.93% (G:24.42% B:0.59%) 43.07% (G:8.45% B:0.30%)
2.	XG Roller++	14/10 9/3	eq: +0.087 (-0.053)
	Player: Opponent: 54.91% (G:24.44% B:0.76%) 45.09% (G:9.10% B:0.33%)
3.	XG Roller++	21/15 14/10	eq: +0.030 (-0.110)
	Player: Opponent: 53.91% (G:22.73% B:1.01%) 46.09% (G:10.48% B:0.49%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

A case of 'long think, wrong think.'  I made the 'creative' play 21/15, 14/10 making a play for the outfield and leaving three blots in jeopardy, but at a time when robot only has a two point board.  Still, this is just wrong.  This is unlikely to work and could turn into a disaster.  Best was to simply safety one man with 14/4 and await further developments.

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One more from this game.  I got hit in the bearoff and am now facing a recube.  Take or Drop?

is robotkiller score: 0 pip: 109

7 point match

pip: 44 score: 0 is Chutzpah

XGID=-GBC-a----a----b-b-bbbbaA-:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:0:7:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller+	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	72.44% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)	72.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	27.56% (G:7.09% B:0.05%)	27.75% (G:7.79% B:0.05%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.372	+0.776
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.696
Redouble/Take:	+0.648 (-0.048)
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.304)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 12.0%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I dropped. Two off is not a lot and this position didn't look promising.  And yet the recube is even too early and dropping a heart attack triple whopper!!

To see my chances in action I swapped sides and played some games agasint the computer.

1: Won 8 points.  Hit loose with an ace.  Closed him out but XG bounced in immediately and got an 8 cube in, which I ended up winning anyway.

2: Won 2 points.  Covered 2 point immediately.  Hit loose on ace and closed him out.

3: Won 2 points.  Rolled mega joker 33 making full prime and rolled home the win.

4:  Won 2 points.  Covered 2 point immedately.  Then attacked on the ace point when it failed to escape.  Another easy win.

5:  Won 8 points.  Covered 2 point immediately.  Got hit with escaping six and had to stare down an 8 cube.  I got lucky and hit him.  Closed him out.  Got hit in the bearoff but luckily hit him a second time coming around to lock up the win.

6: Won 2 points.  Covered two point immediately.  Got hit with escapgin six but rolled a joker from the bar to enter and rehit.  Rolled home to another easy win.

7:  Won 2 points.  Hit loose with ace.  Covered ace point.  Misplayed the close out with open duece point but managed to win anyway.

8:  Won 2 points.  Covered 2 point first roll.  XG rolled an escaping and hitting joker but I hit back from the bar and won anyway.

9: Won 2 points.  Covered 2 point right away.  XG rolled a six on second try to get in the outfield but I hit back and won.

10: Won 2 points.  Covered 2 point right away.  XG failed to roll a six for several turns.  I misplayed the outfield containment but eventually hit loose onthe ace point and won again anyway.

Wow!!  So I won all ten times.  What did I learn from this exercise?  While I won every time, I did see how I could lose.  I may not cover the two point in which case XG gets a free shot to hit a blot (not a game winner to be sure but it helps).  Mostly XG gets a couple chances (usually) to roll a six out.  That six out could also hit in which case I am under big pressure to perform else get an 8 cube.  Also XG could six out and I simply miss in which case I am also under big pressure.  Even after the duece is covered and I hit loose on the ace there are oddball variations where I can't close him out.  And of course, XG retains some equity even after being closed out - having borne off 2 checkers.

Another point to consider how hard/easy the checker plays are for the stronger side.  I managed to play ten games with only two sizable errors but I could easily see people making mistakes.  So there is some likely equity gain there.  On the other hand, if you take this four cube you need to prepared to send an agressive 8 cube - you could cost yourself equity by not rewhipping fast enough when things turn around.