Experiment: Game Flow Chart

Below is an experiment.  Charting wins and losses and equity on a move by move basis.  Idea is to visually see how the win chances, gammons, and associated equity changes during course of a game.  This is a short game, just to test the idea.  Comments welcome.

Each plot point is the position after my move.  Screen shots show the positions if you want to follow along.

1.  I win the opening roll, but the game is still about 50-50 with normal 13% gammons for both sides.

2. Opponent points on my head on the five point and I roll dirt from the bar.  Now I already only 43% to win and opponent's gammons have jumped to 18%

3.  After anchoring on the duce point I am down to 37% wins and still get G'd 18% even with the anchor.  Note my play wasn't best here.

4.  Double 2's was a decent roll but his double 1's was better.  My win chances have dropped to just 35% now.

5.  Double 4 was a really good roll that gives me chances to counterprime.  Even though his Double fives filled in another point it did burn some outside timing.  I am back to 43%

6.  Double 1's was a huge joker and now I am slightly better than 50%.  We both have six primes and I am anchored at the edge and own the cube (good!) but I am a slightly outgunned in the timing department.  I am now 52% to win.

7.  Not anymore.  Double 4 was an anti-joker and now I can cash the game.  Being 77% to win with another 20% gammons I am even close to being too good.



Game 1
 Chutzpah : 0                          trafalgar : 0
  1) 54: 24/20 13/8                    31: 8/5* 6/5                     
  2) 52: Bar/18                        51: 13/7*                        
  3) 21: Bar/23 24/23                   Doubles => 2                    
  4)  Takes                            11: 6/4(2)                       
  5) 22: 13/11(2) 6/4(2)               55: 13/3(2)                      
  6) 44: 13/9(2) 11/7(2)               22: 24/22 13/7                   
  7) 11: 8/5 6/5                       44: 13/5 8/4(2)                  
  8)  Doubles => 4                      Drops                           
      Wins 2 point

is trafalgar score: 0 pip: 167

7 point match

pip: 167 score: 0 is Chutzpah

XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:7:10

to play 54

1.	Book1	24/20 13/8	eq: +0.015
	Player: Opponent: 50.37% (G:13.32% B:0.65%) 49.63% (G:12.96% B:0.46%)
2.	Book1	13/9 13/8	eq: +0.012 (-0.003)
	Player: Opponent: 49.83% (G:14.67% B:0.69%) 50.17% (G:13.27% B:0.63%)
3.	Book1	24/15	eq: -0.008 (-0.023)
	Player: Opponent: 50.30% (G:11.57% B:0.48%) 49.70% (G:12.90% B:0.46%)
1 Generated by GameSite 2000, Ltd on 5/21/2011 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00 Analyzed in XG Roller++

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

is trafalgar score: 0 pip: 163

7 point match

pip: 163 score: 0 is Chutzpah

XGID=-b----E-D---eD---b-db---AA:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:7:10

to play 52

1.	XG Roller++	Bar/18	eq: -0.335
	Player: Opponent: 42.93% (G:10.02% B:0.44%) 57.07% (G:18.25% B:0.70%)
2.	XG Roller++	Bar/23 13/8	eq: -0.343 (-0.008)
	Player: Opponent: 42.34% (G:10.72% B:0.47%) 57.66% (G:17.90% B:0.70%)
3.	3-ply	Bar/23 8/3	eq: -0.452 (-0.117)
	Player: Opponent: 39.89% (G:10.12% B:0.50%) 60.11% (G:20.82% B:1.11%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

is trafalgar score: 0 pip: 157

7 point match

pip: 163 score: 0 is Chutzpah

XGID=-b----E-D---dD---badb---AA:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:7:10

to play 21

1.	XG Roller++	Bar/23 6/5	eq: -0.568
	Player: Opponent: 38.20% (G:8.88% B:0.37%) 61.80% (G:22.72% B:1.18%)
2.	XG Roller++	Bar/22	eq: -0.574 (-0.007)
	Player: Opponent: 37.71% (G:8.90% B:0.39%) 62.29% (G:22.07% B:0.87%)
3.	XG Roller++	Bar/23 8/7	eq: -0.575 (-0.007)
	Player: Opponent: 37.92% (G:9.14% B:0.42%) 62.08% (G:23.27% B:1.22%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

is trafalgar score: 0 pip: 153

7 point match

pip: 160 score: 0 is Chutzpah

XGID=-b----E-D---dD---babbb-B--:1:1:1:22:0:0:0:7:10

to play 22

1.	XG Roller++	13/11(2) 6/4(2)	eq: -0.271
	Player: Opponent: 34.76% (G:10.18% B:0.57%) 65.24% (G:18.06% B:0.86%)
2.	XG Roller++	13/11 8/4 6/4	eq: -0.286 (-0.015)
	Player: Opponent: 34.24% (G:10.21% B:0.56%) 65.76% (G:18.32% B:0.93%)
3.	XG Roller++	13/9 6/4(2)	eq: -0.286 (-0.015)
	Player: Opponent: 34.20% (G:10.17% B:0.56%) 65.80% (G:18.32% B:0.89%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

is trafalgar score: 0 pip: 133

7 point match

pip: 152 score: 0 is Chutzpah

XGID=-b--B-C-D--BbB---babbbbB--:1:1:1:44:0:0:0:7:10

to play 44

1.	XG Roller++	13/9(2) 11/7(2)	eq: -0.026
	Player: Opponent: 43.10% (G:11.56% B:0.58%) 56.90% (G:15.86% B:0.75%)
2.	XG Roller++	13/5(2)	eq: -0.072 (-0.046)
	Player: Opponent: 41.15% (G:11.82% B:0.62%) 58.85% (G:15.70% B:0.75%)
3.	2-ply	11/3(2)	eq: -0.307 (-0.281)
	Player: Opponent: 33.13% (G:8.76% B:0.47%) 66.87% (G:16.49% B:0.70%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

is trafalgar score: 0 pip: 125

7 point match

pip: 136 score: 0 is Chutzpah

XGID=-a-aB-CBDB--a----bbbbbbB--:1:1:1:11:0:0:0:7:10

to play 11

1.	XG Roller++	8/5 6/5	eq: +0.245
	Player: Opponent: 52.29% (G:13.59% B:0.56%) 47.71% (G:12.59% B:0.52%)
2.	1-ply	8/4	eq: -0.415 (-0.660)
	Player: Opponent: 29.44% (G:5.16% B:0.29%) 70.56% (G:14.98% B:0.49%)
3.	1-ply	8/7 8/5	eq: -0.415 (-0.660)
	Player: Opponent: 32.15% (G:5.41% B:0.30%) 67.85% (G:21.55% B:1.01%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

is trafalgar score: 0 pip: 109

7 point match

pip: 132 score: 0 is Chutzpah

XGID=-a-aBBBBCB--------bbcdbB--:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:7:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	77.67% (G:20.23% B:0.90%)	78.00% (G:20.21% B:0.97%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	22.33% (G:4.94% B:0.20%)	22.00% (G:5.01% B:0.22%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.725	+1.448
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.951 (-0.049)
Redouble/Take:	+1.293 (+0.293)
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2