The boneheads are back

I was out of town for a week on business. First match back and the bonehead plays are back!!

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42 to play.

is alicalkap score: 0 pip: 144

7 point match

pip: 143 score: 0 is Chutzpah

XGID=--B-BbCB----cD---bccb--AA-:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:7:10

to play 42

1.	XG Roller++	23/21 13/9	eq: -0.797
	Player: Opponent: 31.80% (G:6.77% B:0.20%) 68.20% (G:19.21% B:0.87%)
2.	XG Roller++	23/21 6/2	eq: -0.897 (-0.100)
	Player: Opponent: 30.49% (G:5.44% B:0.14%) 69.51% (G:20.19% B:0.74%)
3.	4-ply	24/22 13/9	eq: -0.826 (-0.029)
	Player: Opponent: 31.73% (G:6.21% B:0.18%) 68.27% (G:20.52% B:0.89%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

This really should be a "next" yet I goofed it up.

Before the dice are even rolled I want to advance my back men to make an anchor.  Opponent has an advanced anchor and I don't, and opponent has a better prime than I do.  2's and 3's are going to the 21 point and perhaps aces too.

So the 2 is "forced" 23/21.

How about the 4?

6/2 is ridiculous (my play) which leaves 13/9 as the only alternative. 

I have some tactics on my side as some 4's are duplicated (42 and 43 and 44 crushes me anyway, and even 45 46 give me a chance to roll a 4 from the bar to anchor)

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I lead 6 away 7 away and have 42 to play.  This time against manna90254

is manna90254 score: 0 pip: 145

7 point match

pip: 193 score: 1 is Chutzpah

XGID=-----aC-D-a-cD--ad-e-B--AA:0:0:1:42:1:0:0:7:10

to play 42

1.	XG Roller++	Bar/23 13/9	eq: -0.445
	Player: Opponent: 41.67% (G:9.05% B:0.33%) 58.33% (G:20.67% B:1.01%)
2.	XG Roller++	Bar/23 8/4	eq: -0.451 (-0.006)
	Player: Opponent: 41.23% (G:8.94% B:0.31%) 58.77% (G:19.89% B:0.95%)
3.	XG Roller++	Bar/21 13/11	eq: -0.462 (-0.016)
	Player: Opponent: 41.26% (G:8.60% B:0.30%) 58.74% (G:20.45% B:0.84%)
4.	XG Roller++	Bar/21 8/6	eq: -0.500 (-0.055)
	Player: Opponent: 39.43% (G:8.26% B:0.26%) 60.57% (G:18.51% B:0.65%)
5.	XG Roller++	Bar/21 6/4	eq: -0.511 (-0.066)
	Player: Opponent: 39.77% (G:8.10% B:0.26%) 60.23% (G:19.81% B:0.75%)
6.	XG Roller++	Bar/21 24/22	eq: -0.555 (-0.110)
	Player: Opponent: 38.28% (G:7.35% B:0.25%) 61.72% (G:18.54% B:0.55%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I moved Bar/21, 24/22.  I highlight this play because my move is so illogical.

I am way behind in the race - under no circumstances should I be moving my backmost checker.  This is insanity. 

There are several moves that are reasonable.  The key once again is don't touch that back man!!

Bar/23 makes the most sense, staying furthest back and covering the most territory should opponenet leave a blot while leaving the most opportunities to form a second anchor.  Either 13/9 or 8/4 are logical 4's.

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Here is another play from the same game.  64 to play.

is manna90254 score: 0 pip: 121

7 point match

pip: 149 score: 1 is Chutzpah

XGID=----BaB-CBAabB-Bbb-bbA-ba-:0:0:1:64:1:0:0:7:10

to play 64

1.	XG Roller+	15/11* 11/5*	eq: +0.519
	Player: Opponent: 64.04% (G:20.49% B:1.12%) 35.96% (G:14.99% B:0.93%)
2.	XG Roller+	21/11*	eq: +0.347 (-0.172)
	Player: Opponent: 60.25% (G:14.65% B:0.76%) 39.75% (G:13.85% B:0.39%)
3.	1-ply	15/9 15/11*	eq: +0.061 (-0.458)
	Player: Opponent: 54.64% (G:14.24% B:0.84%) 45.36% (G:19.49% B:0.64%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I hit from the back 21/11*  This is the wrong strategy.  For one, I am still behind in the race, so disengaging seems to be the wrong idea.  Also, tactically this is weakeast as I give my opponent many good rolls.  Most 5's and 6's enter and hit at a time when I am outboarded (though he does have the return blot on the ace) while some 5's simply anchor when opponent is happy.  So about 1/2 the rolls opponent is happy.

On the other hand, hitting two with 15/11*/5* puts tremendous pressure on opponent to roll a 5.  So less good rolls and more upside when it works.  If opponent doesn't roll a 5 he's basically hosed.  And even if does roll a 5, I have that return shot at his blot on the ace, lessening the damage somewhat.

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Here's another "next" from the same game that I got way wrong.  64 to play.

is manna90254 score: 0 pip: 121

7 point match

pip: 168 score: 1 is Chutzpah

XGID=----BaCABA-bcB-----cbD-bb-:0:0:1:64:1:0:0:7:10

to play 64

1.	XG Roller+	13/9 13/7	eq: -0.392
	Player: Opponent: 40.53% (G:9.13% B:0.35%) 59.47% (G:14.86% B:0.22%)
2.	XG Roller+	9/3 7/3	eq: -0.508 (-0.116)
	Player: Opponent: 37.86% (G:8.90% B:0.26%) 62.14% (G:16.08% B:0.26%)
3.	2-ply	13/7 9/5*	eq: -0.744 (-0.352)
	Player: Opponent: 38.67% (G:9.56% B:0.32%) 61.33% (G:33.43% B:0.99%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

My first instinct was 13/9, 13/7 but in the end I made the point 9/3, 7/3.  This is a huge mitake, and  shortsighted.

First off, I don't really want the 3 point. The 5 point is a higher priority.

Second, even though I don't particularly want to prime his lone man, I do form a 4 prime with which close to half the numbers fail to escape.

Third, 13/9, 13/7 buys some time.  I now have six checkers to play with on my side of the board while I wait for shots.

Fourth, and most important, my opponent lacks a stepping stone on his outer board to bring his men home safely.  I will likely get multiple indirect shots and/or some direct shots as well.  Again, since he lacks a point in his outer board it will be very difficult to bring these men around.  Patience grasshopper, patience!!