Baileys 3/5/14 v Doug

What follows are selected error from a match against Doug.  Taken from the weekly Baileys tournament held 3/5/14.

43 to play.  Your move?

is Doug score: 0 pip: 155

7 point match

pip: 163 score: 0 is Bill

XGID=-b---BD-B---dE--ab-c-c--B-:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:7:10

to play 43

1.	XG Roller++	24/20 13/10	eq: +0.021
	Player: Opponent: 51.13% (G:15.10% B:0.82%) 48.87% (G:16.45% B:0.82%)
2.	XG Roller++	13/10 13/9	eq: -0.013 (-0.034)
	Player: Opponent: 50.03% (G:15.78% B:0.86%) 49.97% (G:16.59% B:1.15%)
3.	3-ply	13/6	eq: -0.109 (-0.130)
	Player: Opponent: 47.56% (G:14.05% B:0.69%) 52.44% (G:16.44% B:0.92%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I played two down 13/10, 13/9 on the following logic:

• I have the better prime so I should go offense (try to extend the prime)
• Doug has the weaker prime (geared for attack) so I shouldn't place a blot where he will be happy to attack.  
• Especially Doug's spare on the 4 point looks wrong, so I really don't want to split and put this man to work.

All right so this is not the worst play ever but if only I could grasp these early game plays I'd be getting somewhere!  Here are some other thoughts on the position.  I don't know the answer so these could very well be wrong.

• I'm probably just overemphasizing this whole prime versus attack business.  I'm going to need to split someday so why not now while he only has eight in the zone?

• While bringing two down does help the prime, one of the main benefits of two down is to make the 5 point.  I already have that point so perhaps this is overkill?

• The blot on the nine point turns 62 and 53 into better rolls.  62 only sort of since this makes the bar point already.

• Note with the 5 point made, 54 is blocked so the man on the 10 point is only hit with 63 and 33.  And often the 33 shouldn't be played as a hit anyway.

****************

Later in the same game I own cube and have 63 to play.

is Doug score: 0 pip: 114

7 point match

pip: 164 score: 0 is Bill

XGID=--a--CC-C---cC---b-bAcd-B-:1:1:1:63:0:0:0:7:10

to play 63

1.	XG Roller++	20/11	eq: +0.070
	Player: Opponent: 47.79% (G:10.04% B:0.37%) 52.21% (G:16.23% B:1.45%)
2.	XG Roller++	8/2* 5/2	eq: +0.031 (-0.039)
	Player: Opponent: 46.31% (G:12.74% B:0.38%) 53.69% (G:18.02% B:1.80%)
3.	3-ply	20/14 13/10	eq: -0.005 (-0.075)
	Player: Opponent: 46.96% (G:10.21% B:0.34%) 53.04% (G:20.61% B:2.18%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I made the 2 point on his head with 8/2*, 5/2.  I didn't consider another play.  This error surprised me so I wanted to think about it a bit more.

I make a point, put him on the bar, and buy time to hopefully make the better 5 point anchor... and yet this play is wrong.  What gives?

Probably this position is just an exception.  Doug's front position is so advanced, with three overextended builders that I don't really need an advanced anchor.  I'm not racing and the ace point keeps maximum contact so I guess it's OK to stay put. 

On the other hand I am playing against Doug's blot.  Usually the advice is to prime two men and attack one man but again this may be an exception.  I'd prefer to make points in front of him so making the two point wastes two men in essence.  A man on the 11 point is effective since it gives maximum outfield coverage if Doug pops out.  Now 52, 53, 61, 62 yield double shots instead of single shot.

*************

One last position from this game?  63 to play.

is Doug score: 0 pip: 91

7 point match

pip: 146 score: 0 is Bill

XGID=--B--BCBA---cB----Acbcd-B-:1:1:1:63:0:0:0:7:10

to play 63

1.	XG Roller++	18/9	eq: -0.602
	Player: Opponent: 23.73% (G:2.09% B:0.06%) 76.27% (G:16.99% B:0.95%)
2.	XG Roller++	24/18 7/4	eq: -0.678 (-0.075)
	Player: Opponent: 27.60% (G:4.92% B:0.16%) 72.40% (G:36.03% B:0.63%)
3.	3-ply	24/18 8/5	eq: -0.667 (-0.065)
	Player: Opponent: 27.21% (G:4.18% B:0.11%) 72.79% (G:34.10% B:0.30%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

 I anchored with 24/18, 7/4.  This is the DMP play.  It gives maximum contact yielding most shots.  And you need a shot to win.

The problem is you get a shot and if you don't hit it you are looking at a G-ball.  That's actually what (almost) happened.  I got an immediate shot, danced and then was closed out in short order.  Only some miracle big doubles saved the gammon at the end.

*****************

I trail 7 away 5 away and have already doubled.  54 to play.

is Doug score: 2 pip: 127

7 point match

pip: 113 score: 0 is Bill

XGID=-aB-BBD-----bCB-bbcc---b--:1:-1:1:54:0:2:0:7:10

to play 54

1.	XG Roller++	13/9 6/1*	eq: +0.628
	Player: Opponent: 70.05% (G:31.87% B:0.28%) 29.95% (G:6.72% B:0.24%)
2.	XG Roller++	14/10 14/9	eq: +0.604 (-0.024)
	Player: Opponent: 75.72% (G:15.65% B:0.16%) 24.28% (G:2.61% B:0.07%)
3.	XG Roller+	13/4	eq: +0.613 (-0.015)
	Player: Opponent: 74.06% (G:20.72% B:0.28%) 25.94% (G:4.29% B:0.13%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I opted to get rid of my liability now.  14/10, 14/9.  This gives four hits (though it's a bit less since I have returns) but clears my only liability and puts me in the best position to make the bar and lock up the game.  At DMP this play would be correct.

However, with gammons active the computer likes the aggressive 13/9, 6/1*.  Doug has a lot of crossovers, so if he doesn't move again then a gammon is highly likely.  XG estimates gammons jumping from 15% to 30% with the loose hit which more than compensates for the 5% drop in plain wins.

Perhaps another part of the story is that Doug only has a two point board with the high 5 and 4 points open.  So getting hit isn't as costly as it might normally be.

*************

Later in the same game I have 21 to play.

is Doug score: 2 pip: 111

7 point match

pip: 95 score: 0 is Bill

XGID=--BaBBDB-A--bB--a-cc-bab--:1:-1:1:21:0:2:0:7:10

to play 21

1.	XG Roller++	6/3*	eq: +0.767
	Player: Opponent: 77.21% (G:29.26% B:0.44%) 22.79% (G:6.74% B:0.18%)
2.	XG Roller++	9/7 6/5	eq: +0.645 (-0.121)
	Player: Opponent: 79.86% (G:9.25% B:0.11%) 20.14% (G:0.82% B:0.02%)
3.	2-ply	9/6	eq: +0.541 (-0.226)
	Player: Opponent: 76.60% (G:7.52% B:0.06%) 23.40% (G:1.24% B:0.01%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

This is a more egregious example of the same mistake I made last diagram.  I went for the "lock the game up" play.  I just cleaned up with 9/7,6/5. 

Once again this is the DMP play but best by a mile was hitting loose with 6/3*.  If Doug dances there are lots of gammons to be had.  And once again with a blot and the 5 point open the game is hardly over even if Doug does hit.  The key is the gammons go the moon while the extra losses are relatively small, a great trade.

*************

52 to play.

is Doug score: 2 pip: 64

7 point match

pip: 83 score: 4 is Bill

XGID=-ACBCBB-----c-----B--c-de-:1:1:1:52:4:2:0:7:10

to play 52

1.	XG Roller++	18/11	eq: +0.027
	Player: Opponent: 46.23% (G:3.28% B:0.08%) 53.77% (G:0.12% B:0.00%)
2.	XG Roller++	6/1 4/2	eq: -0.021 (-0.048)
	Player: Opponent: 43.81% (G:2.18% B:0.03%) 56.19% (G:0.39% B:0.00%)
3.	3-ply	6/4 6/1	eq: +0.015 (-0.012)
	Player: Opponent: 44.85% (G:2.21% B:0.02%) 55.15% (G:0.36% B:0.00%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

This one really is pretty obvious and yet I blew it.  I broke the board with 6/1, 4/2.  best is 18/11.  let's see why.

• If I get a hit, then I need a strong board to lock up the win.

• If I get hit Doug's board is quite weak.  Gammon risk is very low.  I will likely get several indirects and or directs later on.  Once again I will need the strong board for a later hit to win.

• If there are no hits then running from the midpoint keeps the race alive.  Even though I am down 12 pips after the roll Doug has a supreme amount of wastage.  The race is actually much closer and winning the race is a real possibility.

***************

I lead at Crawford 1 away 5 away.  61 to play.

is Doug score: 2 pip: 134

7 point match Crawford

pip: 135 score: 6 is Bill

XGID=-B-BbCB-----cD---c-b-bc-B-:0:0:1:61:6:2:1:7:10

to play 61

1.	XG Roller++	13/6	eq: -0.168
	Player: Opponent: 42.59% (G:11.37% B:0.26%) 57.41% (G:16.56% B:0.63%)
2.	XG Roller++	24/23 24/18	eq: -0.222 (-0.054)
	Player: Opponent: 40.14% (G:10.68% B:0.29%) 59.86% (G:22.36% B:0.63%)
3.	3-ply	24/23 13/7	eq: -0.219 (-0.050)
	Player: Opponent: 40.48% (G:12.44% B:0.31%) 59.52% (G:20.87% B:1.06%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I challenged immediate with 24/18, 24/23.  I have been making this mistake a lot lately.  I don't want to get stuck on the ace point so I move a six to the bar and pray.

The problem is I am stuck on the ace point.  It's too late!  And I am giving Doug a free shot to do some damage.

Best is 13/6 and await developments.

****************

Later in the same game.  32 to play.

is Doug score: 2 pip: 31

7 point match Crawford

pip: 111 score: 6 is Bill

XGID=-BAaBBBAB-A--------A---daA:0:0:1:32:6:2:1:7:10

to play 32

1.	XG Roller++	Bar/22 5/3*	eq: -0.255
	Player: Opponent: 41.19% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 58.81% (G:30.07% B:5.09%)
2.	XG Roller++	Bar/22 19/17	eq: -0.333 (-0.078)
	Player: Opponent: 35.76% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 64.24% (G:30.16% B:2.20%)
3.	3-ply	Bar/20	eq: -0.316 (-0.061)
	Player: Opponent: 36.51% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 63.49% (G:29.09% B:2.08%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I was fortunate to hit a late shot in the bearoff and have been playing agressively to get the second man.  But I missed the gonzo Bar/22, 5/3* which "really" plays aggressively for the second man.

I actually want to get here since I get to aim at the blot on his ace point.   Further, I don't want to give Doug a free chance to roll an ace and close up his blot for good.